定量化评估未来气候变化条件下农田水分利用和作物产量变化,并探究适应气候变化的灌溉策略对水资源紧缺粮食主产区的农业可持续发展具有重要意义。该研究应用改进的SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型与CMIP6(coupled model inte...定量化评估未来气候变化条件下农田水分利用和作物产量变化,并探究适应气候变化的灌溉策略对水资源紧缺粮食主产区的农业可持续发展具有重要意义。该研究应用改进的SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型与CMIP6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6)的大气环流模式(general circulation model, GCM)相结合的方法,在3种共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)下评估了未来时期(2041-2070年)海河平原实际蒸散量、灌溉量、地下水净使用量(net groundwater use, NGU)和作物产量的变化情况,探究了未来气候情景中适宜的作物灌溉策略。结果表明:1)与历史时期(1971-2000年)相比,未来时期区域年实际蒸散量增加5.5%、年灌溉量和年地下水净使用量分别减少5.9%和25.8%。在SSP5-8.5情景下,年实际蒸散量的增幅最低,年灌溉量和年地下水净使用量的减幅最高。2)相较于历史时期,未来时期冬小麦和夏玉米产量分别增加14.3%和6.5%,其中夏玉米产量增幅随温室气体排放情景的增强而降低。3)在未来气候情景中,雨养夏玉米结合冬小麦拔节期进行灌溉(灌水定额为25 mm,根据自动灌溉系统确定灌水频率)或可最大限度地实现该区地下水资源恢复。从确保粮食安全的视角,推荐雨养夏玉米与冬小麦在拔节期和灌浆期灌溉相结合。研究结果可为区域农业水资源合理规划、可持续的粮食生产政策的制定提供参考。展开更多
The Ground Cover Rice Production System(GCRPS)has considerable potential for securing rice production in hilly areas.However,its impact on yields and nitrogen(N)fates remains uncertain under varying rainfall condition...The Ground Cover Rice Production System(GCRPS)has considerable potential for securing rice production in hilly areas.However,its impact on yields and nitrogen(N)fates remains uncertain under varying rainfall conditions.A two-year field experiment(2021–2022)was conducted in Ziyang,Sichuan Province,located in the hilly areas of Southwest China.The experiment included two cultivation methods:conventional flooding paddy(Paddy,W1)and GCRPS(W2).These methods were combined with three N management practices:N1(no-N fertilizer),N2(135 kg/hm^(2)urea as a base fertilizer in both W1 and W2),and N3(135 kg/hm^(2)urea with split application for W1 and 67.5 kg/hm^(2)urea and chicken manure separately for W2).The WHCNS(Soil Water Heat Carbon Nitrogen Simulator)model was calibrated and validated to simulate ponding water depth,soil water storage,soil mineral N content,leaf area index,aboveground dry matter,crop N uptake,and rice yield.Subsequently,this model was used to simulate the responses of rice yield and N fates to GCRPS under different types of precipitation years using meteorological data from 1980 to 2018.The results indicated that the WHCNS model performed well in simulating crop growth and N fates for both Paddy and GCRPS.Compared with Paddy,GCRPS reduced N leaching(35.1%–54.9%),ammonia volatilization(0.7%–13.6%),N runoff(71.1%–83.5%),denitrification(3.8%–6.7%),and total N loss(33.8%–56.9%)for all precipitation year types.However,GCRPS reduced crop N uptake and yield during wet years,while increasing crop N uptake and yield during dry and normal years.Fertilizer application reduced the stability and sustainability of rice yield in wet years,but increased the stability and sustainability of rice yield in dry and normal years.In conclusion,GCRPS is more suitable for normal and dry years in the study region,leading to increased rice yield and reduced N loss.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41977008)the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural University (Grant No.1191-00109011)。
文摘The Ground Cover Rice Production System(GCRPS)has considerable potential for securing rice production in hilly areas.However,its impact on yields and nitrogen(N)fates remains uncertain under varying rainfall conditions.A two-year field experiment(2021–2022)was conducted in Ziyang,Sichuan Province,located in the hilly areas of Southwest China.The experiment included two cultivation methods:conventional flooding paddy(Paddy,W1)and GCRPS(W2).These methods were combined with three N management practices:N1(no-N fertilizer),N2(135 kg/hm^(2)urea as a base fertilizer in both W1 and W2),and N3(135 kg/hm^(2)urea with split application for W1 and 67.5 kg/hm^(2)urea and chicken manure separately for W2).The WHCNS(Soil Water Heat Carbon Nitrogen Simulator)model was calibrated and validated to simulate ponding water depth,soil water storage,soil mineral N content,leaf area index,aboveground dry matter,crop N uptake,and rice yield.Subsequently,this model was used to simulate the responses of rice yield and N fates to GCRPS under different types of precipitation years using meteorological data from 1980 to 2018.The results indicated that the WHCNS model performed well in simulating crop growth and N fates for both Paddy and GCRPS.Compared with Paddy,GCRPS reduced N leaching(35.1%–54.9%),ammonia volatilization(0.7%–13.6%),N runoff(71.1%–83.5%),denitrification(3.8%–6.7%),and total N loss(33.8%–56.9%)for all precipitation year types.However,GCRPS reduced crop N uptake and yield during wet years,while increasing crop N uptake and yield during dry and normal years.Fertilizer application reduced the stability and sustainability of rice yield in wet years,but increased the stability and sustainability of rice yield in dry and normal years.In conclusion,GCRPS is more suitable for normal and dry years in the study region,leading to increased rice yield and reduced N loss.
