基于贝叶斯方案的雷达反射率反演水汽及其同化试验

雷达资料是目前为数不多有能力为高分辨率预报模式提供高分辨率信息资料的资料之一。为充分利用该资料所包含的中小尺度信息,文中基于雷达反射率,利用贝叶斯方法反演出大气相对湿度;将质控后的资料引入3Dvar系统进行同化分析,为高分辨率模式提供初值场。以台风"妮妲"登陆为例,通过一维反演及三维变分系统分析,有效地订正了实况有回波而模式预报无回波区域的大气湿度趋于合理,增加背景场的湿度,减小模拟回波比观测偏强的区域的大气湿度;同化大气湿度后模式在前6小时报出的台风外围回波分布、演变更合理,改进了降水雨带的分布与强度。1个月的批量试验反映1D+3Dvar同化雷达资料后,大气对流层中低层(850～400 h Pa)增湿明显,其增湿影响程度可延续12小时以上。其逐时降水预报在前12小时的TS均比控制试验高,而大于5 mm以上降水预报偏差则与控制试验的大略一致或更接近1。

华南一次暴雨过程热力和动力特征的诊断分析

2015年5月19—20日广东省强降水过程具有降水集中、强度大和局地性强的特点,利用广东省自动气象站观测资料、ECMWF_FINE再分析资料,对此次强降水过程进行分析发现:华南地区受低槽东移影响,强降水发生在切变线南侧偏南暖湿流场中,粤北降水属于锋面降水,粤东降水属于锋前暖区降水,两者在水汽输送和动力机制上有显著区别。孟加拉湾和南海输送的水汽在这次强降水过程中占主导地位,南边界和东边界为水汽的流入边界,整体水汽输送以经向输入为主。暖区降水区域处于较强的水汽平流环境中,具有更大的水汽净输送量,造成粤东地区的降水量更大。对流层高层辐散比中低层辐合更为重要,是粤东暖区降水重要的动力属性,且暖区中低层流场的旋转效应弱,有区别于典型的梅雨锋降水。利用绝热无摩擦湿位涡守恒进行诊断发现对流不稳定是此次强降水发展的主要机制,暴雨发生区域对应湿位涡垂直分量为负值,水平分量为正值,底层MPV1<0和MPV2>0综合反映了大气对流不稳定和斜压不稳定的增强过程。降水区对流层低层受负湿位涡控制,低层湿位涡负值区与强降水落区有较好的对应关系。

采用预报涡旋的初始化方案对2015年台风“莲花”、“灿鸿”的试验研究

提出了一种采用预报涡旋的初始化方案,用预报涡旋代替bogus模型参与构建模式初始场,采用权重形式合成预报涡旋和分析涡旋获取台风初始涡旋。针对2015年"莲花"和"灿鸿"台风,基于该初始化方案设计了一系列对比试验进行数值模拟,并对结果进行分析。结果表明:(1)该方案得到的台风初始涡旋结构比bogus模型合理;(2)预报涡旋权重不宜取太大;(3)从长时效预报效果看,采用24 h内预报涡旋比采用长时效预报涡旋台风的路径和强度误差减小;(4)采用同一权重方案对"莲花"、"灿鸿"预报的改进效果不同,其原因与预报涡旋和分析涡旋的协调程度有关。多台风情形下可在初步评估的基础上采用不同时效的预报涡旋和不同权重方案。

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated.The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed.The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan.The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province.The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64.The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87.The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·20.The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south China.The IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

A Review on GRAPES-TMM Operational Model System at Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center

This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with Increased Vertical Resolution in the TRAMS Model

The numerical simulation of typhoons has been found to be very sensitive to the vertical resolution of the model.During the updating of the TRAMS model from version 1.0 to 3.0,the horizontal resolution has been increased from 36 km to 9 km,while the vertical layer number only increased from 55 to 65 layers.The lack of high vertical resolution limits the performance of the TRAMS model in typhoon forecasting to a certain extent.In order to study the potential improvement of typhoon forecasting by increasing the vertical resolution,this paper increases the vertical resolution of the TRAMS model from 65 to 125 layers for the first time for a comparative simulation test.The results of the case study with Typhoon Hato(2017)show that the model with high vertical resolution can significantly enhance the warm structure caused by water vapor flux convergence and vertical transport,thus accurately simulating the rapid strengthening process of the typhoon.Meanwhile,the model with 125-layer vertical resolution can simulate the asymmetric structural characteristics of the wind field,which are closer to the observations and can help to reduce the bias in typhoon track forecasting.The improvement of vertical resolution is also trialed by using the batch test results of several landfalling typhoons in 2016-2017.The experimental results show that the typhoon forecast of the model becomes consistent with the observations only when the number of vertical layers of the model increases to about 125 layers,which in turn causes a large computational burden.In the next step,we will try to solve the computational burden problem caused by ultra-high vertical resolution with the top boundary nesting technique,and realize the application of high vertical resolution in the actual operation of the TRAMS model.

Simulation of the evolution of the latent heat processes in a mesoscale convective system accompanied by heavy rainfall over the Guangzhou region of South China

A cloud-scale WRF simulation was used to investigate the cloud microphysical processes and threedimensional structure of latent heat budgets in different stages of a mesoscale convective system（MCS） accompanied by heavy rain that occurred in the Guangzhou region of South China.The results enable us to draw the following conclusions：（1） During the development and mature stages,the main heating processes were condensation below 400 hPa and deposition above 400 hPa.The main cooling processes were evaporation and melting.During the dissipation stage,all the microphysical processes were weak.（2） Water vapor condensed into cloud water,and rainwater significantly contributed to all stages of the MCS.（3） During every stage of the MCS,the primary cooling microphysical process was the evaporation of rainwater,which was maximum during the mature stage.