An Advanced Approach for Improving the Prediction Accuracy of Natural Gas Price

As one of the most important commodity futures,the price forecasting of natural gas futures is of great signifi-cance for hedging and risk aversion.This paper mainly focuses on natural gas futures pricing which considers seasonalityfluctuations.In order to study this issue,we propose a modified approach called six-factor model,in which the influence of seasonalfluctuations are eliminated in every random factor.Using Monte Carlo method,wefirst assess and comparative analyze thefitting ability of three-factor model and six-factor model for the out of sample data.It is found that six-factor model has better performance than three-factor model and natural gas futures prices is strongly influenced by winter effect.We then apply the proposed model to predict the price of natural gas futures in the year 2019.It is found that natural gas prices have a weak upward trend in the coming year and are relatively volatile in winter.

An Open-Label Study of Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin,Vincristine, and Reduced-Dose Dexamethasone Combination Therapy in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients in the Chinese Population

OBJECTIVE Though doxorubicin is highly active in the treatment of multiple myeloma, its toxicity profile limits its therapeutic index. We performed this study to evaluate the efficacy and liposomal doxorubicin （PLD, Ca of pegylated , vincristine, and reduced-dose dexamethasone combination therapy in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma （MM） patients in a Chinese population. METHODS This was an open-label, single-arm study in which newly diagnosed patients with MM received PLD 40 mg/m2 intravenously on Day 1, vincristine 1.4 mg/m2 intravenously （maximum 2 rag） on Day 1, and 40 mg of dexamethasone （intravenously or orally） from Day 1 to Day 4. Treatment was repeated every 28 days for at least 4 cycles. RESULTS In the intent-to-treat （ITT） analysis, the overall response rate was 68.29%, and the complete remission rate was 10.98%. The incidence of all adverse events was 46.34%. The most common non-hematologic toxicities were palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia （13.4%） and stomatitis （6.1%）. CONCLUSION PLD, vincristine, and a reduceddose dexamethasone combination （DVd） is an effective and safe regimen in newly diagnosed MM patients in a Chinese population.

The ALMaQUEST Survey ⅩⅤ:The dependence of the molecular-to-atomic gas ratios on resolved optical diagnostics

The atomic-to-molecular gas conversion is a critical step in the baryon cycle of galaxies,which sets the initial conditions for subsequent star formation and influences the multi-phase interstellar medium.We compiled a sample of 94 nearby galaxies with observations of multi-phase gas contents by utilizing public H_(Ⅰ),CO,and optical IFU data from the Ma NGA survey together with new FAST H_(Ⅰ)observations.In agreement with previous results,our sample shows that the global molecular-to-atomic gas ratio(R_(mol)≡log M_(H2)/M_(H_(Ⅰ)))is correlated with the global stellar mass surface densityμ_*with a Kendall'sτcoefficient of 0.25 and p<10^(-3),less tightly but still correlated with stellar mass and NUV-r color,and not related to the specific star formation rate(sSFR).The cold gas distribution and kinematics inferred from the H_(Ⅰ)and CO global profile asymmetry and shape do not significantly rely on R_(mol).Thanks to the availability of kpc-scale observations of MaNGA,we decompose galaxies into H_(Ⅱ),composite,and AGN-dominated regions by using the BPT diagrams.With increasing R_(mol),the fraction of H_(Ⅱ)regions within 1.5 effective radius decreases slightly;the density distribution in the spatially resolved BPT diagram also changes significantly,suggesting changes in metallicity and ionization states.Galaxies with high R_(mol)tend to have high oxygen abundance,both at one effective radius with a Kendall'sτcoefficient of 0.37(p<10^(-3))and their central regions.Among all parameters investigated here,the oxygen abundance at one effective radius has the strongest relation with global R_(mol).The dependence of gas conversion on gas distribution and galaxy ionization states is weak.In contrast,the observed positive relation between oxygen abundance(μ_(*))and R_(mol)indicates that the gas conversion is efficient in regions of high metallicity(density).

Human Expansion-Induced Biodiversity Crisis over Asia from 2000 to 2020

Asia stands out as a priority for urgent biodiversity conservation due to its large protected areas(PAs)and threatened species.Since the 21st century,both the highlands and lowlands of Asia have been experiencing the dramatic human expansion.However,the threat degree of human expansion to biodiversity is poorly understood.Here,the threat degree of human expansion to biodiversity over 2000 to 2020 in Asia at the continental(Asia),national(48 Asian countries),and hotspot(6,502 Asian terrestrial PAs established before 2000)scales is investigated by integrating multiple large-scale data.The results show that human expansion poses widespread threat to biodiversity in Asia,especially in Southeast Asia,with Malaysia,Cambodia,and Vietnam having the largest threat degrees(~1.5 to 1.7 times of the Asian average level).Human expansion in highlands induces higher threats to biodiversity than that in lowlands in one-third Asian countries(most Southeast Asian countries).The regions with threats to biodiversity are present in~75%terrestrial PAs(including 4,866 PAs in 26 countries),and human expansion in PAs triggers higher threat degrees to biodiversity than that in non-PAs.Our findings provide novel insight for the Sustainable Development Goal 15(SDG-15 Life on Land)and suggest that human expansion in Southeast Asian countries and PAs might hinder the realization of SDG-15.To reduce the threat degree,Asian developing countries should accelerate economic transformation,and the developed countries in the world should reduce the demands for commodity trade in Southeast Asian countries(i.e.,trade leading to the loss of wildlife habitats)to alleviate human expansion,especially in PAs and highlands.

新型冠状病毒感染患者急性黄斑视网膜病变的多模态影像特征

目的探讨新型冠状病毒感染患者急性黄斑视网膜病变的多模态影像学特征。方法横断面研究。收集2022年12月17至31日于开封市眼病医院初次诊断为急性黄斑神经视网膜病变(AMN)和(或)旁中心急性黄斑中层视网膜病变(PAMM),且就诊前新型冠状病毒核酸检测或抗原检测阳性的患者8例(15只眼),作为观察组,并根据SS-OCT表现将患者分为4型。招募无眼科和(或)全身疾病的15名(15只眼)健康志愿者为健康对照组,以抽签方式随机选取1只眼为受试眼。所有受试者均行详细眼科检查,包括最佳矫正视力(BCVA)检查、裂隙灯显微镜检查、眼底激光照相(FLP)、眼压检查、眼底红外成像、相干光层析成像术(OCT)和相干光层析血管成像术(OCTA)检查,测量受试眼黄斑中心凹无血管区(FAZ)面积。收集并分析受试者的一般资料和多模态影像检查结果。测量以黄斑中心凹为中心,直径1.0 mm、>1.0 mm且≤3.0mm、>3.0 mm且≤6.0 mm环形区域的视网膜浅层毛细血管丛血管密度(SCP-VD)和层毛细血管丛血管密度(DCP-VD),分别记录为SCP-VD1.0、3.0、6.0和DCP-VD1.0、3.0、6.0。采用t检验、Mann-WhitneyU检验和χ2检验进行统计学分析。结果观察组男性6例(11只眼),女性2例(4只眼);年龄为(26.87±11.56)岁。健康对照组男性11例(11只眼),女性4例(4只眼);年龄为(28.75±12.30)岁。两组年龄与性别构成差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。观察组患者均出现体温≥39.0 ℃的高热,且在发热期间或退烧后24 h内出现眼部症状。所有患者中,Ⅰ型5例(7只眼),Ⅱ型1例(1只眼),Ⅲ型3例(4只眼),Ⅳ型2例(3只眼)。Ⅲ、Ⅳ型中3例(4只眼)出现外丛状层或外核层弱反射囊腔,FLP检查发现黄斑区可见多个灰色或红褐色病灶。1例(1只眼)可见视网膜浅层出血。2例(4只眼)眼底可见棉绒斑。眼底红外光检查显示,Ⅰ型表现为黄斑旁中心区弱反射病变,尖端指向中心凹,Ⅱ型黄斑区未见明显异常,Ⅲ、Ⅳ型表现为跨越黄斑中心凹的地图状弱反射病变。OCTA检查结果显示,观察组SCP-VD1.0为6.93%(4.77%,6.93%),低于健康对照组的10.66%(8.05%,10.55%),差异有统计学意义(U=174.00,P=0.016);观察组SCP-VD3.0为37.14%(32.15%,43.48%),低于健康对照组的43.06%(38.95%,46.55%),差异有统计学意义(U=174.00,P=0.016);观察组DCP-VD3.0为48.20%(46.11%,50.33%),低于健康对照组的51.10%(50.04%,53.02%),差异有统计学意义(U=188.00,P=0.009);观察组DCP-VD6.0为49.27%(47.26%,51.67%),低于健康对照组的52.43%(50.07%,53.82%),差异有统计学意义(U=70.00,P=0.004)。两组间SCP-VD6.0和DCP-VD1.0比较,差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。结论新型冠状病毒感染患者的急性黄斑视网膜病变可累及视网膜全层,SS-OCT表现为病变区域节段性强反射,眼底红外光表现为病变区域弱反射,FLP表现为黄斑区多个灰色或红褐色病灶,OCTA表现为SCP-VD和DCP-VD下降。

Four-year follow-up of patients with imatinib-resistant or intolerant chronic myeloid leukemia receiving dasatinib:efficacy and safety

Dasatinib is a highly effective second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor used to treat chronic myeloid leukemia (CML).In 2007,a pivotal phase-2 study of dasatinib as second-line treatment was initiated in 140 Chinese CML patients.This report from the 4-year follow-up revealed that 73% of 59 patients in chronic phase (CML-CP) and 32% of 25 patients in accelerated phase (CML-AP) remained under treatment.The initial dosage of dasatinib for CML-CP and CML-AP patients were 100 mg once daily and 70 mg twice daily (total=140 mg/ day),respectively.The cumulative major cytogenetic response (MCyR) rate among patients with CML-CP was 66.1%(versus 50.8% at 18 months),and the median time to MCyR was 12.7 weeks.All CML-CP patients who achieved MCyR after a 4-year follow-up also achieved a complete cytogenetic response.The cumulative complete hematological response (CHR) rate among patients with CML-AP was 64%(16/25),with three CML-AP patients achieving CHR between 18 months and 4 years of follow-up;the median time to CHR was 16.4 weeks.The adverse event (AE) profile of dasatinib at 4 years was similar to that at 6 and 18 months.The most frequently reported AEs (any grade) included pleural effusion,headache,and myelosuppression.These long-term follow-up data continue to support dasatinib as a second-line treatment for Chinese patients with CML.

Autologous peripheral hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in a patient with refractory pemphigus

The aim of this study is to explore the effective-ness of autologous peripheral hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in the treatment of refractory pemphigus.A 35-year-old male patient presented with a 4-year history of recurrent bullae on his trunk and extremities.The dia-gnosis of pemphigus was made on the basis of the clinical,histologic and immunofluorescence findings.The patient had shown resistance to conventional therapy with gluco-corticoid and immunosuppressive agents.Two months before admission,he complained of hip joint pain.X-ray and CT scan revealed aseptic necrosis of the femoral head.Stem-cell mobilization was achieved by treatment with cyclophosphamide,granulocyte colony-stimulating factor(G-CSF)and rituximab.Peripheral blood stem cells were collected via leukapheresis and cryopreserved for later use.Immunoablation was accomplished by using cyclophospha-mide(200 mg/kg;divided into 50 mg/kg on days-5,-4,-3,and-2),antithymocyte globulin(ATG;10 mg/kg;divided into 2.5 mg/kg on days-6,-5,-4,and-3),and rituximab(1200 mg/d;divided into 600 mg/d on days 0 and 7).Autologous peripheral hematopoietic stem cell transplanta-tion was followed by reconstitution of the immune system which was monitored by flow cytometry.The glucocorti-coid was withdrawn immediately after transplantation.The pemphigus titer turned negative 6 weeks after transplanta-tion and remained negative.The patient was in complete drug-free remission with no evidence of residual clinical or serological activity of pemphigus during 1 year of follow-up.The patient’s response suggests that autologous peri-pheral hematopoietic stem cell transplantation may be a potential“cure”for refractory pemphigus.However,fur-ther studies are needed to evaluate the risk-benefit ratio of this approach in patients with pemphigus showing resist-ance to conventional therapy.

Devising optimal integration test orders using cost-benefit analysis

Integration testing is an integral part of software testing.Prior studies have focused on reducing test cost in integration test order generation.However,there are no studies concerning the testing priorities of critical classes when generating integration test orders.Such priorities greatly affect testing efficiency.In this study,we propose an effective strategy that considers both test cost and efficiency when generating test orders.According to a series of dynamic execution scenarios,the software is mapped into a multi-layer dynamic execution network(MDEN)model.By analyzing the dynamic structural complexity,an evaluation scheme is proposed to quantify the class testing priority with the defined class risk index.Cost–benefit analysis is used to perform cycle-breaking operations,satisfying two principles:assigning higher priorities to higher-risk classes and minimizing the total complexity of test stubs.We also present a strategy to evaluate the effectiveness of integration test order algorithms by calculating the reduction of software risk during their testing process.Experiment results show that our approach performs better across software of different scales,in comparison with the existing algorithms that aim only to minimize test cost.Finally,we implement a tool,ITOsolution,to help practitioners automatically generate test orders.

Roof greening in major Chinese cities possibly afford a large potentialcarbon sink

China is experiencing accelerated urbanisation,with a large number of people moving from rural to urban areas[1].It has resulted in large losses in the net primary production(NPP),biodiversity and carbon stocks and an increase in environmental pollution and CO_(2)emissions[2–4].In 2015,196 countries signed the Paris Agreement and committed to setting long-term goals to jointly manage climate change and reduce their individual emissions,aiming to control the increase in global average temperature from the pre-industrial level to below 2℃and to curtail the temperature rise within 1.5℃till the end of the 21st century[5].China is bolstering its efforts to achieve the climate change mitigation goals and has announced a plan for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060[6].The carbon neutrality goal poses a challenge to the current policies promoting rapid urbanisation across China.