Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme.Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel.In general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances.Moreover,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical conditions.The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough.The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small.On the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

Aerosol Data Assimilation Using Data from Fengyun-3A and MODIS:Application to a Dust Storm over East Asia in 2011

Aerosol optical depth(AOD) is the most basic parameter that describes the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols,and it can be used to indicate aerosol content. In this study, we assimilated AOD data from the Fengyun-3 A(FY-3 A) and MODIS meteorological satellite using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. Experiments were conducted for a dust storm over East Asia in April 2011. Each 0600 UTC analysis initialized a24-h Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model forecast. The results generally showed that the assimilation of satellite AOD observational data can significantly improve model aerosol mass prediction skills. The AOD distribution of the analysis field was closer to the observations of the satellite after assimilation of satellite AOD data. In addition, the analysis resulting from the experiment assimilating both FY-3 A/MERSI(Medium-resolution Spectral Imager) AOD data and MODIS AOD data had closer agreement with the ground-based values than the individual assimilation of the two datasets for the dust storm over East Asia. These results suggest that the Chinese FY-3 A satellite aerosol products can be effectively applied to numerical models and dust weather analysis.

Assimilating All-sky Infrared Radiances from Himawari-8 Using the 3DVar Method for the Prediction of a Severe Storm over North China

Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the radar network prior to the formation of the precipitation for the storms and their environment. The study explores the effects of assimilating the water vapor channel radiances from Himawari-8 data with Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system(WRFDA) for a severe storm case over north China. A fast cloud detection scheme for Advanced Himawari imager(AHI)radiance is enhanced in the framework of the WRFDA system initially in this study. The bias corrections, the cloud detection for the clear-sky AHI radiance, and the observation error modeling for cloudy radiance are conducted before the data assimilation. All AHI radiance observations are fully applied without any quality control for all-sky AHI radiance data assimilation. Results show that the simulated all-sky AHI radiance fits the observations better by using the cloud dependent observation error model, further improving the cloud heights. The all-sky AHI radiance assimilation adjusts all types of hydrometeor variables, especially cloud water and precipitation snow. It is proven that assimilating all-sky AHI data improves hydrometeor specifications when verified against the radar reflectivity. Consequently, the assimilation of AHI observations under the all-sky condition has an overall improved impact on both the precipitation locations and intensity compared to the experiment with only conventional and AHI clear-sky radiance data.

Assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager Radiance for Track Prediction of Typhoon Cases with the WRF Hybrid En3DVAR System

The impact of assimilating radiance data from the advanced satellite sensor GMI(GPM microwave imager)for typhoon analyses and forecasts was investigated using both a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR)and a hybrid ensemble-3DVAR method.The interface of assimilating the radiance for the sensor GMI was established in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.The GMI radiance data are assimilated for Typhoon Matmo(2014),Typhoon Chan-hom(2015),Typhoon Meranti(2016),and Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)in the Pacific before their landing.The results show that after assimilating the GMI radiance data under clear sky condition with the 3DVAR method,the wind,temperature,and humidity fields are effectively adjusted,leading to improved forecast skills of the typhoon track with GMI radiance assimilation.The hybrid DA method is able to further adjust the location of the typhoon systematically.The improvement of the track forecast is even more obvious for later forecast periods.In addition,water vapor and hydrometeors are enhanced to some extent,especially with the hybrid method.

A stochastic reconstruction strategy based on a stratified library of structural descriptors and its application in the molecular reconstruction of naphtha

Molecular reconstruction is a rapid and reliable way to provide molecular detail of petroleum fractions,which is required in the kinetic modeling of petroleum conversation processes at the molecular level.In the typical stochastic reconstruction method,the estimation of properties of pseudo molecules that are generated by Monte Carlo sampling depends on the building of predefined molecular libraries,which is expensive and inaccessible for certain petroleum fractions.In this paper,a novel stochastic reconstruction strategy is proposed,which is based on a stratified library of structural descriptors.Properties of pseudo molecules generated in the novel strategy can be directly estimated by group contribution method in the condition of lacking predefined molecular libraries.In this strategy,the molecular building diagram comprises two steps.First,the ring structure is configured by determining the number of rings.Different from the length of chain adopted in the traditional stochastic reconstruction method,in the second step,number of structural descriptors(SDs)for binding site and chain were determined sequentially for the configuration of binding site and saturated acyclic hydrocarbon chain.These structural descriptors for binding site and chain were selected from group contribution methods.To count the number of partial overlapping sections between structural descriptors for chain,two supplementary structural descriptors were created.All possible saturated structures of hydrocarbon chains can be represented by structural descriptors at the scale of property estimation.This strategy separates the building of a predefined molecule library from the stochastic reconstruction process.The exact structures of pseudo molecules represented by structural descriptors in this work can be determined with sufficient chemical knowledge.Fifty naphtha samples are tested independently to demonstrate the performance of the proposed strategy and the results show that the estimated properties were close enough to the experimental values.This strategy will benefit the molecular management of petrochemical industries and therefore improve economic and environmental efficiencies.