This paper analyzes the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in China,establishes a SEIR^(+CAQ)epidemiologic model that classifies the diagnosed population into asymptomatic,mild,and severe,and considers the condition of a...This paper analyzes the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in China,establishes a SEIR^(+CAQ)epidemiologic model that classifies the diagnosed population into asymptomatic,mild,and severe,and considers the condition of an isolated population.First of all,we theoretically analyzed the key problems of the disease-free equilibrium,stability,and basic reproduction number of the model.Then,combined with the actual data,the development trend of the epidemic situation is simulated and compared,and the influence of some important parameters is discussed in the model evaluation part.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results,we forecast the future development of the COVID-19 epidemic and put forward some reasonable scientific suggestions for the government to formulate a future epidemic prevention policy.展开更多
基金This work is supported by the National College Students’s Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(S202010619021)School of Science College Student Innovation Fund Project of Southwest University of Science and Tech-nology+1 种基金Application Basic Project of Sichuan Science and Technology Department(2017JY0336)Longshan Academic Talent Research Support Program of Southwest University of Science and Technology(17LZX670,18LZX622).
文摘This paper analyzes the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in China,establishes a SEIR^(+CAQ)epidemiologic model that classifies the diagnosed population into asymptomatic,mild,and severe,and considers the condition of an isolated population.First of all,we theoretically analyzed the key problems of the disease-free equilibrium,stability,and basic reproduction number of the model.Then,combined with the actual data,the development trend of the epidemic situation is simulated and compared,and the influence of some important parameters is discussed in the model evaluation part.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results,we forecast the future development of the COVID-19 epidemic and put forward some reasonable scientific suggestions for the government to formulate a future epidemic prevention policy.
