Analysis of transportation carbon emissions and its potential for reduction in China

The transportation industry is an essential sector for carbon emissions mitigation.This paper firstly used the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method to establish factors decomposition model on China's transportation carbon emission.Then,a quantitative analysis was performed to study the factors influencing China's transportation carbon emissions from 1991 to 2008,which are identified as transportation energy efficiency,transportation structure and transportation development.The results showed that:(1)The impact of transportation development on transportation carbon emissions showed pulling function.Its contribution value to carbon emissions remained at high growth since 1991 and showed an exponential growth trend.(2)The impact of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions showed promoting function in general,but its role in promoting carbon emissions decreased year by year.And with the continuous optimization of transportation structure,the promoting effect decreased gradually and showed the inversed"U"trend.(3)The impact of transportation energy efficiency on transportation carbon emissions showed a function of inhibition before pulling.In order to predict the potential of carbon emission reduction,three scenarios were set.Analysis of the scenarios showed that if greater intensity emission reduction measures are taken,the carbon emissions will reduce by 31.01 million tons by 2015 and by 48.81 million tons by 2020.

The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco- environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constrain- ing factors.

ndustrial eco-efficiency and its spatial-temporal differentiation in China

The aim of this paper is to study the spatialtemporal differentiation of industrial eco-efficiency in China. Using methods based on the data envelopment analysis （DEA） model and exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA） and data from 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2008 of 30 provinces in China, the spatial-temporal pattern changes in industrial eco-efficiency are discussed. The results show that： first, the patterns of industrial eco-efficiency are dominated by clustering of relatively low efficiency provinces; second, spatial relationships between the industrial eco-efficiencies of different provinces changed slightly throughout the period and the provinces persistently exhibit spatial concentration of relatively low industrial eco-efficiency; finally, there is an obvious trend in the polarization of industrial eco-efficiency, i.e., the higher level spatial units are concentrated in eastern China, and the lower level spatial units are mainly in western and central China. （ESDA）