Risk assessment on the epidemics of human infection with a novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Jiangsu Province, China

A novel avian influenza A （H7N9） virus was discovered in February 2013 in China and has resulted in more than 100 comfirmed human infections including 26 fatal cases as of May 2, 2013. The situation raises many ur- gent questions and global public health concerns. In this study, epidemiologic characteristics of infected human cases in Jiangsu province were analyzed and risk assessment was undertaken based on the information available. Briefly, it is highly unlikely that a pandemic of human infection with avian influenza A （HTN9） virus will happen in Jiangsu Province in the near future. Iia the end, some measures are recommended to prevent the situation from becoming worse.

Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus

Live poultry markets（LPMs） are crucial places for human infection of influenza A（H7N9 virus）.In Yangtze River Delta,LPMs were closed after the outbreak of human infection with avian influenza A（H7N9） virus,and then reopened when no case was found.Our purpose was to quantify the effect of LPMs＇ operations in this region on the transmission of influenza A（H7N9） virus.We obtained information about dates of symptom onset and locations for all human influenza A（H7N9） cases reported from Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces by May 31,2014,and acquired dates of closures and reopening of LPMs from official media.A two-phase Bayesian model was fitted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to process the spatial and temporal influence of human cases.A total of 235 cases of influenza A（H7N9） were confirmed in Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang by May 31,2014.Using these data,our analysis showed that,after LPM closures,the influenza A（H7N9） outbreak disappeared within two weeks in Shanghai,one week in Jiangsu,and one week in Zhejiang,respectively.Local authorities reopened LPMs when there was no outbreak of influenza A（H7N9）,which did not lead to reemergence of human influenza A（H7N9）.LPM closures were effective in controlling the H7N9 outbreak.Reopening of LPM in summer did not increase the risk of human infection with H7N9.Our findings showed that LPMs should be closed immediately in areas where the H7N9 virus is confirmed in LPM.When there is no outbreak of H7N9 virus,LPMs can be reopened to satisfy the Chinese traditional culture of buying live poultry.In the long term,local authorities should take a cautious attitude in permanent LPM closure.