Cholera remains a public health threat in most developing countries in Asia and Africa including Malawi with seasonal recurrent outbreaks. Malawi’s recent Cholera outbreak in 2022 and 2023, exhibited higher morbidity...Cholera remains a public health threat in most developing countries in Asia and Africa including Malawi with seasonal recurrent outbreaks. Malawi’s recent Cholera outbreak in 2022 and 2023, exhibited higher morbidity and mortality rates than the past two decades. Lack of spatiotemporal-based technology and variability assessment tools in Malawi’s Cholera monitoring and management, limit our understanding of the disease’s epidemiology. The present work developed a spatiotemporal variability model for Cholera disease at district level and its relationship to socioeconomic and climatic factors based on cumulative confirmed Cholera cases in Malawi from March 2022 to July 2023 using Z-score statistic and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) in a Geographical Information System (GIS). We found out that socioeconomic factors such as access to safe drinking water, population density and poverty level, and climatic factors including temperature and rainfall strongly influenced Cholera prevalence in a complex and multifaceted manner. The model shows that Lilongwe, Mangochi, Blantyre and Balaka districts were highly vulnerable to Cholera disease followed by lakeshore districts of Salima, Nkhotakota, Nkhata-Bay and Karonga than other districts. We recommend strategic measures such as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) interventions, community awareness on proper water storage, Cholera case management, vaccination campaigns and spatial-based surveillance systems in the most affected districts. This research has shown that MGWR, as a surveillance system, has the potential of providing insights on the disease’s spatial patterns for public health authorities to identify high-risk districts and implement early response interventions to reduce the spread of the disease.展开更多
In the past two to three years, the world has been heavily affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Malawi has not been spared due to its interconnection with neighboring countries. There is no management to...In the past two to three years, the world has been heavily affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Malawi has not been spared due to its interconnection with neighboring countries. There is no management tool to identify and model the vulnerabilities of Malawi’s districts in prioritizing health services as far as coronavirus prevalence and other infectious diseases are concerned. The aim of this study was to model coronavirus vulnerability in all districts in Malawi using Geographic Information System (GIS) to monitor the disease’s cumulative prevalence over the severely affected period between 2020 and 2021. To achieve this, four parameters associated with coronavirus prevalence, including population density, percentage of older people, temperature, and humidity, were prepared in a GIS environment and used in the modelling process. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to model and determine the vulnerability of coronavirus in Malawi. In the MGWR modelling, the Fixed Spatial Kernel was used following a Gaussian distribution model type. The Results indicated that population density and older people (age greater than 60 years) have a more significant impact on coronavirus prevalence in Malawi. The modelling further shows that Malawi, between April 2020 and May 2021, Lilongwe, Blantyre and Thyolo were more vulnerable to coronavirus than other districts. This research has shown that spatial variability of Covid-19 cases using MGWR has the potential of providing useful insights to policymakers for targeted interventions that could otherwise not be possible to detect using non-geovisualization techniques.展开更多
文摘Cholera remains a public health threat in most developing countries in Asia and Africa including Malawi with seasonal recurrent outbreaks. Malawi’s recent Cholera outbreak in 2022 and 2023, exhibited higher morbidity and mortality rates than the past two decades. Lack of spatiotemporal-based technology and variability assessment tools in Malawi’s Cholera monitoring and management, limit our understanding of the disease’s epidemiology. The present work developed a spatiotemporal variability model for Cholera disease at district level and its relationship to socioeconomic and climatic factors based on cumulative confirmed Cholera cases in Malawi from March 2022 to July 2023 using Z-score statistic and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) in a Geographical Information System (GIS). We found out that socioeconomic factors such as access to safe drinking water, population density and poverty level, and climatic factors including temperature and rainfall strongly influenced Cholera prevalence in a complex and multifaceted manner. The model shows that Lilongwe, Mangochi, Blantyre and Balaka districts were highly vulnerable to Cholera disease followed by lakeshore districts of Salima, Nkhotakota, Nkhata-Bay and Karonga than other districts. We recommend strategic measures such as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) interventions, community awareness on proper water storage, Cholera case management, vaccination campaigns and spatial-based surveillance systems in the most affected districts. This research has shown that MGWR, as a surveillance system, has the potential of providing insights on the disease’s spatial patterns for public health authorities to identify high-risk districts and implement early response interventions to reduce the spread of the disease.
文摘In the past two to three years, the world has been heavily affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Malawi has not been spared due to its interconnection with neighboring countries. There is no management tool to identify and model the vulnerabilities of Malawi’s districts in prioritizing health services as far as coronavirus prevalence and other infectious diseases are concerned. The aim of this study was to model coronavirus vulnerability in all districts in Malawi using Geographic Information System (GIS) to monitor the disease’s cumulative prevalence over the severely affected period between 2020 and 2021. To achieve this, four parameters associated with coronavirus prevalence, including population density, percentage of older people, temperature, and humidity, were prepared in a GIS environment and used in the modelling process. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to model and determine the vulnerability of coronavirus in Malawi. In the MGWR modelling, the Fixed Spatial Kernel was used following a Gaussian distribution model type. The Results indicated that population density and older people (age greater than 60 years) have a more significant impact on coronavirus prevalence in Malawi. The modelling further shows that Malawi, between April 2020 and May 2021, Lilongwe, Blantyre and Thyolo were more vulnerable to coronavirus than other districts. This research has shown that spatial variability of Covid-19 cases using MGWR has the potential of providing useful insights to policymakers for targeted interventions that could otherwise not be possible to detect using non-geovisualization techniques.
