喀斯特峰丛洼地生态系统服务空间权衡度及其分异特征

我国西南喀斯特峰丛洼地区脆弱的生态环境与剧烈的人类活动导致石漠化现象以及生态功能退化,制约了区域生态福祉耦合效益的提升。首先从数值变化与空间变异综合的角度,构建了融合均方根偏差法与地理探测器的生态系统服务空间权衡度指标,进而围绕喀斯特水源涵养土壤侵蚀关系以及植被固碳土壤侵蚀关系,在不同环境因子梯度下和地貌形态类型区内开展生态系统服务空间权衡度计算及其分异特征研究。环境因子梯度分析表明,由于植被显著的保持水土能力,水源涵养与土壤侵蚀之间的空间权衡度随植被覆盖度的增大而逐渐减小;地形因子对地表水土过程与植被功能影响深刻,植被固碳和土壤侵蚀之间的空间权衡度随海拔和坡度的升高而逐渐增大,1000 m以上中海拔以及陡坡地区的空间权衡度是低海拔与缓坡地区的46倍。地貌形态类型区的统计结果显示,地貌特征对生态系统服务之间的空间权衡关系具有宏观控制作用,植被固碳土壤侵蚀之间的空间权衡度随地形起伏度的升高而逐渐增大,具体为:中海拔平原<中海拔台地<中海拔丘陵<小起伏中山<中起伏中山,水源涵养与土壤侵蚀之间则成相反趋势。因此,今后在以生态系统服务协同提升为目标的喀斯特石漠化治理工作中,应强调环境因子作用程度的空间差异以及地貌形态特征的宏观控制作用。

区域台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力评估

以浙江省苍南县为例,构建防灾能力、抗灾能力和救灾能力一体化的台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力评估指标体系,应用多级模糊综合评估模型定量评估台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力。结果表明,苍南县各乡镇台风-洪涝-地质灾害减灾能力可应对台风等级为10~12级,空间上呈现南北高、中部低的分布特征。评估结果较为准确地识别各乡镇减灾能力的优势和限制因素,其减灾能力差异主要受房屋抗风能力、房屋参保、工程设施抗洪能力等因素影响。区域台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力应基于减灾资源、灾害危险性提出具有针对性的减灾策略。

基于GWR模型的喀斯特地区产流量与土壤侵蚀权衡的时空特征——以贵州省三岔河流域为例

喀斯特地区的土壤保持服务及产流服务对区域可持续发展至关重要,明晰二者之间的权衡/协同关系是制定生态系统服务管理策略的基础。当前,针对喀斯特生态系统服务权衡与协同关系的研究多为定性描述,对于相互关系的定量研究亟待加强。本文以典型喀斯特地区三岔河流域为研究区,使用In VEST模型、RUSLE模型分别模拟了研究区2000-2015年16年间的产流量及土壤侵蚀量数据,借助地理加权回归方法对产流量及侵蚀量的多年均值进行权衡/协同关系的定量刻画与空间分析。结果表明:(1)流域尺度上产流量与土壤侵蚀量呈现权衡协同关系并存的分布格局,研究区63. 3%的面积为权衡关系,36. 7%的面积为协同关系,上游、下游大部分地区为权衡关系,中游呈现协同关系;(2)土地利用类型的空间分布是导致产流量与土壤侵蚀量权衡/协同关系空间分布的主要原因;(3)产流量与土壤侵蚀量的空间权衡/协同关系具有较高的空间异质性,因不同地貌类型区而存在差异,其中中海拔平原、中海拔台地地区土壤侵蚀与产流量整体上表现为协同关系,中海拔丘陵、小起伏中山、中起伏中山地区表现为权衡关系。本研究深入剖析了土壤侵蚀及产流量的空间权衡关系,其结果可为该地区生态系统服务管理提供借鉴意义。

太行山油松人工林土壤水稳性团聚体稳定性及其演变机制

土壤水稳性团聚体是反映土壤质量好坏与土壤抗侵蚀能力的重要指标.通过野外调查与室内分析,研究太行山南麓不同恢复年限(33、45和49 a)油松人工林土壤水稳性团聚体的稳定性状况及其影响因素.结果表明:不同恢复年限油松人工林土壤水稳性团聚体均以大团聚体(>0.25 mm)为主,大团聚体含量在80%以上,但恢复49 a油松人工林土壤水稳性大团聚体含量在0~50 cm各土层中均低于恢复33 a油松人工林,且在10~40 cm土层差异显著.随着油松人工林的逐步恢复,>2 mm粒级的土壤水稳性团聚体含量下降,土壤水稳性团聚体分形维数(D)、破坏率(PAD)波动增加,平均质量直径(MWD)和几何平均直径(GMD)在0~40 cm深度范围内明显减小,2 mm粒级的土壤水稳性团聚体可以作为油松人工林土壤水稳性团聚体稳定性的重要度量阈值.土壤黏粒会促使小粒级土壤水稳性团聚体的形成,而有机质、速效磷、速效钾、砂粒等能够促进小粒级土壤水稳性团聚体向大粒级转化,从而提高土壤水稳性团聚体稳定性.研究显示,油松人工林恢复过程中土壤团聚状态良好、稳定性强、分散性弱,但恢复到一定阶段会引起土壤水稳性团聚体稳定性降低,这与土壤有机质、速效磷、速效钾以及机械组成变化等有直接关系.

太行山典型森林水源涵养分层特征与差异研究

以豫北太行山典型森林生态系统为研究对象,结合样地调查、室内试验以及K-W秩和检验等方法,分层探讨太行山典型森林水源涵养功能的异同。结果表明:侧柏林冠层最大持水量与有效拦蓄量均较大,分别为37.01、19.47 t/hm^2;栓皮栎林冠层最大持水量与有效拦蓄量最小,但浸水初期持水速率较大;枯落物持水量大小顺序为油松林>侧柏林>栓皮栎林,但有效拦蓄量大小顺序则为侧柏林>油松林>栓皮栎林,其中半分解层起主导性作用;土壤层持水能力较高,是森林水源涵养功能的关键所在,尤其是侧柏林,土壤最大持水量与土壤有效持水量分别为515.22、110.67 t/hm^2。

“一带一路”倡议下中国铁路工程教育“走出去”的创新探索

“一带一路”铁路工程建设成就斐然,但如何在激烈的国际竞争中行稳致远,对铁路工程人才的人文价值观、创新思维能力、跨学科能力、国际工程胜任力等提出了全新、更高的要求。针对“一带一路”倡议实施中铁路工程存在的国际化复合型人才严重不足、重大核心技术创新亟待突破、人才需求多样化多层次特点等挑战,西南交通大学在国际铁路工程人才培养过程中确立了国际化复合型工程技术人才培养目标和核心素养标准,创新实施了“铁路工程+”人才培养新模式,打造了全新的课程体系。一系列改革实践形成了政府支持、产教协同、平台搭建、资源迭代等经验。

Eco-geographical Regionalization of China:An Approach Using the Rough Set Method

Eco-geographical regionalization involves dividing land into regions by considering both intra-regional consistency and interregional disparity and is based on the pattern of differentiation of eco-geographical elements.Owing to the complexity of the land surface,and the limitation of data and appropriate methods,regions in China have hitherto been mapped manually,meaning that the process of mapping was non-repeatable.To make the regionalization technique repeatable,this study aimed to extract and quantify the expert knowledge of regionalization using an automated method.The rough set method was adopted to extract rules of regionalization based on the existing eco-geographical regionalization map of China,as well as its corresponding meteorological and geological datasets.Then,the rules for regionalization were obtained hierarchically for each natural domain,each temperature zone,and each humidity region.Owing to differences in zonal differentiation,the rule extraction sequence for the eastern monsoon zone and Tibetan Alpine zone was temperature zone first followed by humidity region,with the reverse order being applied for the northwest arid/semi-arid zone.Results show that the extracted indicators were similar to those of the existing(expert-produced)regionalization scheme but more comprehensive.The primary indicator for defining temperature zones was the≥10℃ growing season,and the secondary indicators were the January and July mean temperatures.The primary and secondary indicators for identifying humid regions were aridity index and precipitation,respectively.Eco-geographical regions were mapped over China using these rules and the gridded indicators.Both the temperature zones and humidity regions mapped by the rules show≥85%consistency with the existing regionalization,which is higher than values for mapping by the commonly used simplified method that uses the classification of one indicator.This study demonstrates that the proposed rough set method can establish eco-geographical regionalization that is quantitative and repeatable and able to dynamically updated.

基于中游化工产品制造商的供应链安全性研究

化工行业安全是国家总体安全的重要组成部分。基于中游化工产品制造商视角,考察供应链网络结构的安全性与制造商自身竞争力,以及与上游供应商、下游分销商市场势力的关系,构建BP神经网络模型进行弹性分析。发现以中游化工产品制造商为核心,供应链网络结构不同,供应链安全的特性也不相同。合作关系广泛的供应链网络,市场势力起重要作用;合作关系简单的供应链网络,企业自身创新能力和运营能力起重要作用。从而为我国统筹发展和安全需求,构建经济发展新格局提供微观基础。

喀斯特山地土壤侵蚀和产水量的最优解释

Accurately identifying the dominant factor of karst ecosystem services(ESs)is a prerequisite for the rocky desertification control.However,the explanatory power of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of ESs is affected by scaling,and the quantitative research on the scale effect still needs to be further strengthened.This study used the geographical detector to access the explanatory power of environmental factors on soil erosion and water yield at different spatial resolutions,and then explored its differences in three geomorphological-type areas.Results showed that slope and vegetation coverage were the dominant factors of soil erosion,and the interactive explanatory power between the two factors was stronger.Affected by the universality of topographic relief and landscape fragmentation in the study area,the explanatory power of slope and land use type on soil erosion was optimal at low resolution.Precipitation,elevation,and land use type were the dominant factors for the spatial heterogeneity of water yield,and the interaction between precipitation and land use type explained more than 95%of water yield.The spatial variability of elevation in different geomorphological-type areas affected its optimal explanatory power,specifically,in the terrace and hill-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was weak,its explanatory power was optimal at high resolution.While in the mountain-type areas,the spatial variability of elevation was strong,and its explanatory power was optimal at low resolution.This study quantitatively identified the optimal explanatory power of ES variables through multi-scale analysis,which aims to provide a way and basis for accurate identification of the dominant factors of karst mountain ESs and zoning optimization.

气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

The black soil region of northeast China is a vital food base and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in China.However,the characteristics of the crop phenological response and the integrated impact of climate and phenological changes on agricultural productivity in the region under the background of climate change are not clear.The future agricultural risk assessment has been insufficiently quantified and the existing risk level formulation lacks a sound basis.Based on remote sensing products,climate data,and model simulations,this study integrated a logistic function fitting curvature derivation,multiple linear regression,and scenario simulation to investigate crop phenology dynamics and their climate response characteristics in the black soil region.Additionally,the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural production and possible future risks were identified.The key results were as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2017,29.76%of the black soil region of northeast China experienced a significant delay in the start of the growing season(SOS)and 16.71%of the total area displayed a trend for the end of the growing season(EOS)to arrive earlier.The time lagged effects of the SOS in terms of the crop response to climatic factors were site and climatic parameter dependent.The influence of temperature was widespread and its effect had a longer lag time in general;(2)Both climatic and phenological changes have had a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of crop production,and the predictive ability of both increased by 70.23%,while the predictive area expanded by 85.04%,as compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season;(3)Under the RCP8.5 scenario,there was a risk that the future crop yield would decrease in the north and increase in the south,and the risk area was constantly expanding.With a 2.0℃rise in global temperature,the crop yield of the southern Songnen black soil sub-region would reduce by almost 10%.This finding will improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate change and vegetation productivity dynamics,and is also helpful in the promotion of the risk management of agrometeorological disasters.

Separating the effects of two dimensions on ecosystem services:Environmental variables and net trade-offs

Spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem services(ESs)are driven by two types of factors:environmental factors and trade-offs/synergies between services.In the ecological conservation red line(ECRL)area,in which national ecological security and social sustainable development are guaranteed,it is particularly important to clarify the driving mechanism of ESs for the management of ecosystems.In this study,soil conservation,water yield,and carbon sequestration in Beijing’s ECRL area are quantified,and GeoDetector is used to identify the factors influencing the trade-offs/synergies between ESs.Moreover,partial correlation analysis is used to calculate the net trade-offs/synergies and compare them with the extent to which environmental variables contribute to ESs.The results are as follows:environmental variables and trade-offs/synergies have different effects on the changes in ESs,and their interactions can enhance the determinative power of the corresponding individual variable.The land use intensity is an extremely important factor affecting the trade-offs/synergies between the three services,indicating that rational land use planning in Beijing’s ECRL area is crucial for avoiding the negative impacts of trade-offs and enabling coordinated optimization of ESs.After the elimination of the cross-influence of environmental variables,the trade-offs/synergies change significantly,and the impact of environmental variables on ESs is compared with the net trade-offs/synergies.Environmental variables are the driving forces of the spatiotemporal changes in soil conservation.Precipitation and carbon sequestration have similar effects on water yield.Spatiotemporal changes in carbon sequestration are closely related to the other two services,with smaller influences from environmental variables.

不同全球变暖目标下中国气候变化风险区域格局

Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk.This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets.Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk receptors.Therefore,the risks show significant spatial differences.The high-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central China,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and southwestern China.Under the 2℃warming target,more than 1/4 of China’s area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the 1.5℃warming target,and would extend to the western and northern regions.This work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险

"一带一路"建设是中国在新时期推动国际合作共赢的倡议,旨在打造绿色、健康、智力、和平丝绸之路,保障"一带一路"沿线各国人民共同发展。系统分析"一带一路"沿线国家环境特征、演化趋势与未来风险格局,是"一带一路"建设的科学基础。应用遥感监测、统计资料,探究"一带一路"陆域气候、地形、土壤、水文、植被环境要素空间分布特征和时空差异;依据经典综合自然区划的方法论,将"一带一路"陆域划分为中东欧寒冷湿润区、蒙俄寒冷干旱区、中亚西亚干旱区、东南亚温暖湿润区、巴基斯坦干旱区、孟印缅温暖湿润区、中国东部季风区、中国西北干旱区和青藏高原区等9个区域。结合模型模拟、情景预估等技术手段,将自然灾害损失评估方法论用于预估未来30年高温热浪、干旱和洪涝等突发性极端事件的灾害风险,以趋势—基线对比方法预估宏观生态系统、粮食生产等渐变事件的风险。结果显示,亚欧大陆西部将是暖干趋势;青藏高原两侧区域高温热浪高风险;中东欧寒冷湿润区东部干旱高风险;孟印缅温暖湿润区和中国东部季风区洪涝高风险;荒漠边缘区域为生态脆弱高风险区;中低纬区域为粮食减产高风险区。

基于SWAT模型模拟乌江三岔河生态系统产流服务及其空间变异

产流是生态系统水源涵养服务的重要内容,也是保水固土等服务的关键驱动。脆弱的喀斯特生态系统叠加人类活动的影响引起生态退化,在此背景下亟需深刻理解喀斯特地区产流服务空间格局及其影响因子。选择典型的喀斯特峰丛洼地流域,基于率定校准的SWAT水文模型,对喀斯特流域产流服务(包括地表、地下以及总径流量)进行模拟,并结合空间梯度分析和局部回归模型,剖析不同服务变量的空间变异特征。结果表明:研究区产流量空间分异规律明显,总径流系数约为70.0%;地表径流整体处于较低水平,地下径流量丰富(约为地表径流量的2~3倍)。地形因子对喀斯特流域产流服务具有宏观控制作用,随海拔和坡度升高,总径流量、地下径流量显著增加;植被分布特征对地表径流有重要影响,在上游林地和下游园地分布区存在空间差异,在植被因素的影响下随坡度的增加呈现转折性的变化趋势。此外,空间叠加分析表明林地总径流及地下径流最大:一方面是由于森林生态系统更强的土壤水分涵养能力以及水分快速入渗的地质背景特征;另一方面反映了地表覆盖与地形特征的复合效应,即林地大多分布在相对海拔和坡度较大之处。本文有助于推进喀斯特生态系统服务研究领域的发展与创新,并为生态恢复建设提供科技支撑。

自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式

全球环境变化和经济快速发展导致自然灾害的增加,已经成为现代人类社会最严重的环境问题之一。面对自然灾害风险防控的严峻形势,人类社会必须建设得足够强大,以应对可能发生的自然灾害风险。在提出"构筑自然灾害韧弹性社会减轻自然灾害风险"的基础上,本文重点分析韧弹性的确切涵义,通过综合灾害防御、损害恢复和应急管控,诠释自然灾害韧弹性社会的内涵、组分和结构;建立自然灾害韧弹性社会的指标体系和定量表征方法,评估案例区自然灾害韧弹性社会的状况;进而针对城乡差异设计建设自然灾害韧弹性社会的途径。依此,系统性地构建了包括概念—结构—指标—途径的自然灾害韧弹性社会理论范式。建设自然灾害韧弹性社会是人类的必然选择,这与社会经济可持续发展高度一致。研究旨在推动综合应对自然灾害风险,探索建设"更强、更安全、更持续"的自然灾害韧弹性社会途径,支撑国家防灾减灾战略转变、实施"关键领域与薄弱环节九大工程"。

基于地理探测器的喀斯特不同地貌形态类型区土壤侵蚀定量归因

土壤侵蚀形成机制与影响因素识别是当前研究的核心与前沿议题,然而从多因素综合作用的角度进行定量归因仍需加强。以喀斯特典型峰丛洼地流域为研究区,基于GIS手段和RUSLE模型模拟土壤侵蚀,综合土地利用、坡度、降雨、高程、岩性、植被覆盖度等影响因子,应用地理探测器方法针对喀斯特不同地貌形态类型区进行土壤侵蚀的定量归因研究。结果表明,各影响因子对土壤侵蚀的解释力及因子间耦合作用程度在不同地貌形态类型区差异显著,其中土地利用和坡度是决定土壤侵蚀空间异质的主导因子,但在山地丘陵区,随着地形起伏度的升高,坡度的控制作用下降,即地理探测器q值表现为中海拔丘陵>小起伏中山>中起伏中山;生态探测器显示土地利用对土壤侵蚀的影响相比于其他因子有显著差异;双因子交互作用有助于增强对土壤侵蚀的解释力,土地利用与坡度的协同作用对土壤侵蚀的解释力达到70%以上;对于土壤侵蚀空间分布的差异性检验,风险探测器显示在小起伏中山、中起伏中山等地貌形态类型中,具有显著差异的影响因子分层组合数占比至少55%。因而,喀斯特地区土壤侵蚀的治理应综合考虑不同地貌形态类型区土壤侵蚀影响机制的空间异质性。

1982-2013年中国植被NDVI空间异质性的气候影响分析

为研究气候变化与植被活动之间的复杂关系,采用1982-2013年GIMMS NDVI与气象站点温度与水分的监测资料,应用基于像元的地理加权回归方法,探究了中国植被NDVI及其动态特征对气候变化响应的空间格局。中国植被NDVI与地表温度呈空间非平稳关系,在空间上的负相关关系主要集中在东北、西北及东南部分地区,空间正相关则更为集中和连片;针对不同气候指标的标准化系数对比可知,植被NDVI受水分控制作用较为显著的区域主要集中在北方地区以及青藏高原,温度的主导作用区域则分布在华东、华中及西南地区,其中年均最高气温对NDVI的主导区域范围最广;植被NDVI动态与气候变率的回归结果表明,增温速率的升高会通过加剧干旱等机制对植被活动产生抑制作用,水分变率对植被活动的强弱起到了重要的调节作用。

气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

东北黑土区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,也是中国气候变化最敏感的地区之一。然而,气候变化背景下东北黑土区气候及物候变化对农业生产力的综合影响并不清晰,未来农业生产风险评估的定量化程度不够,风险等级制定缺乏依据。本文借助遥感产品、气候资料和模拟数据等资料,综合运用多元线性回归、相关分析及干旱危险性指数等方法,探究东北黑土区作物物候动态及其气候响应特征,辨识气候与物候变化对农业生产的复合效应及未来可能风险。结果表明:(1)2000—2017年东北黑土区29.76%的区域作物生长季开始期呈显著延后趋势,16.71%的区域作物生长季结束期呈提前态势,生长季开始期受气温的影响范围广,且滞后时间长;生长季结束期与前期气候变化关系更加密切,且带状差异性响应格局尤其明显。(2)气候变化和物候期改变对作物生产的解释能力较生长季同期气候变化的解释能力增加了70.23%,解释面积扩大了85.04%。(3)RCP8.5情景下东北黑土区粮食总产量呈现上升趋势,粮食生产风险表现出“南增北减”的演变特征,风险区面积不断扩大,全球温升2.0℃时,松嫩黑土亚区南部粮食减产量可能达到10%。研究有助于深入认识气候—物候—作物生产的关联机理及未来粮食生产风险,对制定气候变化应对策略,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。

21世纪以来河南省植被覆盖变化及气候驱动解析

借助MODIS NDVI数据和气象插值数据,采用一元线性回归、Hurst指数及相关分析等方法,从年际尺度探讨河南省21世纪以来植被覆盖时空变化规律,并分析其对气候因素的响应特征。结果表明:河南省植被覆盖区域差异较大,NDVI频度呈单峰结构;近16年来,河南省大部分地区植被覆盖呈现增加趋势,10年平均增速约为4%(P<0.01),且阶段性明显;河南省植被变化的同向特征强于反向特征,植被覆盖整体上呈持续改善态势,但郑州、洛阳、焦作等市域局部地区存在持续减小现象;年平均温度的上升是平原区植被覆盖增加的主要驱动因子,但升温尤其是年平均最高温度增加抑制了山区植被生长,植被覆盖对气候因子的敏感程度地域异质性明显。

喀斯特山地土壤侵蚀和产水量的最优解释力

喀斯特生态系统服务主导影响因子识别是科学治理石漠化的前提,然而环境因子对生态系统服务空间分布的解释力受尺度变换的影响,其尺度效应的定量研究仍需进一步加强。为定量厘定环境因子解释力的尺度效应,本文从多尺度视角出发,利用地理探测器定量分析不同空间分辨率下环境因子对土壤侵蚀和产水量的解释力,并探求其在不同地貌形态类型区的差异性规律。结果表明,坡度和植被覆盖度是影响土壤侵蚀空间分布的主导因子,两者的交互作用对土壤侵蚀空间分布的解释力更强。受研究区地形起伏普遍性和景观破碎化的影响,坡度和土地利用类型在低分辨率下解释力最优。降水、海拔和土地利用类型是产水量空间分异的主导因子。降水和土地利用类型的交互作用对产水量的解释力达95%以上,海拔在不同地貌形态类型区的空间变异性影响其最优解释力水平。具体表现为:在台地、丘陵类型区海拔空间变异性较小,在高分辨率下其解释力最优;在山地类型区,海拔空间变异性较大,在低分辨率下其解释力更强。本文通过多尺度分析定量甄别生态系统服务变量的最优解释力,以期为喀斯特山地生态系统服务的主导因子精准辩识和分区优化提供途径和依据。