A simple‘toy’model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted(and observed)to occur as a consequence of greenhou...A simple‘toy’model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted(and observed)to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gasinduced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health.The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake.Also,increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts.Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.展开更多
基金supported by a US National Science Foundation grant(2027290)awarded to Stanford University。
文摘A simple‘toy’model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted(and observed)to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gasinduced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health.The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake.Also,increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts.Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.
