回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素--以河南省45村为例

基于河南省45村1072份田野调查数据,采用描述统计分析和多水平多元Logistic回归分析方法,探讨回流农民工的预期购房区位和影响因素。研究发现:中心地层级对回流农民工预期购房区位选择具有重要影响,但影响强度与回流者年龄相关,新生代回流者偏向于较高层级中心地,而第一代回流者则青睐于低层级中心地。整体上,户籍所在地县城为回流农民工预期购房区位的首选区位,其次为地级市主城区和村庄,集镇和省城较少。个体特征、资金积累、成婚是影响预期购房区位选择的核心因素,村庄地理环境对预期购房区位选择具有重要影响。回流农民工具有较高的县城和城市购房居住预期,未来将是新型城镇化,尤其是就地城镇化的重要力量,应当稳定和降低城镇房价,以实现回流农民工真正的城镇融入。

Willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses: A case study of 45 villages in Henan Province, China

The willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses has an important impact on local urbanization.At present,there are few researches on the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses.The existing researches mostly focus on the perspective of sociology and economics,and few studies are conducted from the perspective of geography.Based on the survey data of 45 villages in Henan Province of China in 2019,this study used binary logistic method to study the influencing factors of the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses.The willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses is affected by many factors,such as personal,family,village,and returning factors.Among them,age and returning period are negatively correlated with the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses.Factors such as years of education,years of working,and per capita income of village are positively correlated with the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses.Returning migrant workers in plains and hilly areas are more willing to purchase houses than those in mountainous areas.The formation of the willingness to purchase houses is mainly related to economic foundation,age,marital status,and other factors.Returning migrant workers are becoming more willing to purchase houses,and the expected locations are mainly concentrated in the county seats.In the context of China’s high density of rural population and rapid urbanization,more returning migrant workers are expected to purchase houses in cities and towns for the sake of employment,marriage,children’s education,and access to public services.As a result,there is an extensive market of potential purchasers,which affects the development of the local urban real estate industry and is of great significance for returning migrant workers to truly integrate into the cities.However,some returning migrant workers still choose to purchase houses in villages,mainly affected by traditional concepts,living habits,and the better development of villages.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses,so as to master the flow laws and future behavior of returning migrant workers to purchase houses.

Spatial Analysis of the Return location of Migrant Workers--Case Study on 12 Villages in Henan Province,China

In the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,the phenomenon of migrant workers’return accompanied its flow is attracting more and more attention of scholars.Based on the sampling data of 529 migrant workers’return questionnaires,statistical analysis and binary logistic model were used to analyze the return location choice and influencing factors of migrant workers.The study found that the village,the local township and the local county seat are the main choices for the inter-provincial migrant workers of return location.The local township and the local county seat are also the preferred locations for migrant workers to return to business,while in the city and other city are less migrant workers.The main mechanism for the choice of migrant workers of return location is the balance between the family and the economic benefits.The main factors affecting the choice of rural migrant workers’return location are the age of migrant workers,the number of primary and secondary school students,the number of migrant workers,and the per capita cultivated area.The mobility and return of migrant workers are actually the location choices and changes of migrant workers in geospatial space,which depends on the sticky size of different locations.

农民工回流务工区位研究——以河南省45个村为例

回流已成为中国农民工流动的重要趋势,未来将重塑农村人口流动的空间格局。论文基于901份田野调查数据,采用描述性统计和多元Logistic回归方法,对农民工回流务工区位及影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:农民工回流后务工区位选择主要以县城为主,其次为村庄,中心城区和集镇较少。省外回流和省内回流是农民工回流的基本形式,但二者在务工区位选择上存在一定差异。回流务工区位以本属区位为主,但也存在少量非本属区位。影响回流农民工务工区位选择的显著性因子主要包括年龄、居住区位、村人均收入、村务工比、村地形、前务工地类和回流源地等。农民工回流后,虽然整体上解决了跨区域的长距离奔波问题,但仍在更小的空间尺度上继续存在务工和务家的平衡问题,距离在回流务工区位选择中具有重要作用。居住区位与务工区位具有对等性,社区内部的信息交流影响着回流者对务工收益的评价,成为务工区位决策的重要机制。在回流务工区位选择上,存在路径依赖现象。县城应成为农区新型城镇化发展的重点和主要载体。

农民工回流创业区位研究——以河南省14个村为例

农民工回流创业正在成为乡村振兴的重要力量,而创业区位选择反映了创业者的空间决策能力,并对创业绩效产生影响。基于河南省14个村田野入户调查数据,采用统计分析和多值logistic分析方法,对农民工回流创业区位特征和影响因素进行了研究。研究发现:①回流农民工创业区位具有以村庄为中心的近距离分布特征,绝大多数创业者分布于以村庄为中心50 km范围内,约一半的回流者在家门口创业,在时间距离上,主要集中于0.5 h工作圈和1 h工作圈内。②创业区位主要选择于本村和县城,其次为镇及附近的中心城市。③创业企业除了少数较大规模外,大多为小微企业和个体经营,创业企业产值与距离正相关。除村庄区位农业项目较多外,其余各类创业区位之间行业差别并不明显。④创业区位选择是以取得经济利润为前提,综合考虑个人因素、务工因素、社区因素和创业因素的结果。其中,学历、村回流比、第二产业创业项目类型对于选择非村落区位具有正向影响,而工龄、务工地数、无务工技能、村庄为平原和丘陵、第一产业创业项目类型则具有负向影响。