Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.

Economic Risk Assessment of Future Debris Flows by Machine Learning Method

A reliable economic risk map is critical for effective debris-flow mitigation.However,the uncertainties surrounding future scenarios in debris-flow frequency and magnitude restrict its application.To estimate the economic risks caused by future debris flows,a machine learning-based method was proposed to generate an economic risk map by multiplying a debris-flow hazard map and an economic vulnerability map.We selected the Gyirong Zangbo Basin as the study area because frequent severe debris flows impact the area every year.The debris-flow hazard map was developed through the multiplication of the annual probability of spatial impact,temporal probability,and annual susceptibility.We employed a hybrid machine learning model-certainty factor-genetic algorithm-support vector classification-to calculate susceptibilities.Simultaneously,a Poisson model was applied for temporal probabilities,while the determination of annual probability of spatial impact relied on statistical results.Additionally,four major elements at risk were selected for the generation of an economic loss map:roads,vegetation-covered land,residential buildings,and farmland.The economic loss of elements at risk was calculated based on physical vulnerabilities and their economic values.Therefore,we proposed a physical vulnerability matrix for residential buildings,factoring in impact pressure on buildings and their horizontal distance and vertical distance to debrisflow channels.In this context,an ensemble model(XGBoost) was used to predict debris-flow volumes to calculate impact pressures on buildings.The results show that residential buildings occupy 76.7% of the total economic risk,while roadcovered areas contribute approximately 6.85%.Vegetation-covered land and farmland collectively represent 16.45% of the entire risk.These findings can provide a scientific support for the effective mitigation of future debris flows.