Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

Analysis of Venezuela's oil-oriented economy: from the perspective of entropy

To investigate the efficiency and stability of Venezuela＇s oil-oriented economy, this paper applied entropy to the analysis.Based on this method, Venezuela＇s oil-centered industry, inefficient regulatory system, and insensitive response to external changes are recognized as an increase in the country＇s entropy. According to these facts, a dissipative structure model is constructed to analyze the efficiency and stability of the Venezuela＇s economic system. The results show that financial assistants（fund flow）, policy reform（policy flow）, and advanced technology（technology flow） can perform as negative entropy inflows（NEIFs）. These NEIFs will promote a series of influence and feedback reactions, which will contribute to recovering Venezuela＇s system efficiency and stability.