China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percentof GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018.The new pattern offered fresh evidencefor our understanding of China's cur...China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percentof GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018.The new pattern offered fresh evidencefor our understanding of China's current account dynamics.In this paper,we used flowof funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces.Specifically,by employing indexdecomposition analysis,we decomposed the current account from the perspective ofsavings and investment into three sectors:the household,corporate,and governmentsectors.We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven bycyclical factors,i.e.weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the governmentstimulus plan.However,such cyclical factors quickly subsided,and the subsequentcurrent account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors,i.e.household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a moreexpansionary fiscal policy.There are three possible explanations for the structuralmovement:reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio,lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown,and a twin deficit due to thegovernment's more relaxed fiscal stance.The new facts,however,were not consistent withother current account theories focusing on long-term aspects of the saving-investmentaccount puzzle,especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71773125,71973142,and 71673028)Important Projects in the Scientific Innovation of CASS(Research on the Major Risks of China in the Next 15 Years).
文摘China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percentof GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018.The new pattern offered fresh evidencefor our understanding of China's current account dynamics.In this paper,we used flowof funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces.Specifically,by employing indexdecomposition analysis,we decomposed the current account from the perspective ofsavings and investment into three sectors:the household,corporate,and governmentsectors.We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven bycyclical factors,i.e.weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the governmentstimulus plan.However,such cyclical factors quickly subsided,and the subsequentcurrent account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors,i.e.household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a moreexpansionary fiscal policy.There are three possible explanations for the structuralmovement:reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio,lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown,and a twin deficit due to thegovernment's more relaxed fiscal stance.The new facts,however,were not consistent withother current account theories focusing on long-term aspects of the saving-investmentaccount puzzle,especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.
