中国国外资产人民币化

自2008年全球金融危机以来,中国主动出击,采取一系列措施推进人民币的国际化,更多的国际债权以人民币而不是以美元定值。从中国国际资产与负债的货币组合这一角度讨论影响人民币国际化前景的因素。在众多的影响因素中,包含人民币的基础价值与管理。

Global and Euro Imbalances:China and Germany

We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.

Can the Chinese domestic bond and stock markets facilitate a globalising renminbi?

A global renminbi(RMB)needs to be backed by a large,deep and liquid RMB market with a world-class Chinese government bond(CGB)market as its core.It also needs the support from a bigger and more open domestic stock market.China’s CGB market is the sixth largest local currency sovereign bond market in the world.By transforming the non-tradable,captive central bank liabilities into homogeneous and tradable CGBs through cutting the still high Chinese reserve requirements by 1/3,the size of the CGB market can rise by 40%,boosting market liquidity while trimming distortions to the banking system.Also,policy bank bonds may attract foreign investor demand.Finally,a bigger and more open domestic A-share stock market also helps expand the RMB assets in the international investor portfolio.With both bigger bond and stock markets and their higher foreign ownerships following market opening,the combined sum of Chinese domestic bonds and A-shares held by foreign investors may increase five folds during 2018–2025,lifting the RMB asset position in global investor portfolios,facilitating a potential global RMB,while promoting a deeper and more efficient Chinese domestic capital market.This process of liberalising cross-border portfolio capital flows for non-resident investors may bring both risks and benefits to the Chinese economy.

Effect of Particle Size on Mechanical Properties and Fracture Behaviors of Age-Hardening SiC/Al–Zn–Mg–Cu Composites

15 vol.% SiC/Al-6.5Zn-2.8 Mg-1.7 Cu(wt%) composites with varying particle sizes(3.5, 7.0, 14 and 20 μm), i.e., C-3.5, C-7.0, C-14, and C-20, respectively, were fabricated by powder metallurgy(PM) method and subjected to microstructural examination. The effect of particle size on mechanical properties and fracture behaviors of the T6-treated composites was revealed and analyzed in detail. Element distribution and precipitates variations in the composites with varying particle sizes were emphatically considered. Results indicated that both tensile strength and plasticity of the T6-treated composites increased first and then decreased with particle size decreasing. The C-7.0 composite simultaneously exhibited the highest ultimate tensile strength(UTS) of 686 MPa and best elongation(El.) of 3.1%. The smaller-sized SiC particle would introduce more oxide impurities, which would react with the alloying element in the matrix to cause Mg segregation and depletion. According to strengthening mechanism analysis, the weakening of precipitation strengthening in the T6-treated C-3.5 composite was the main cause of the lower tensile strength. Additionally, the larger SiC particle, the more likely to fracture, especially in the composites with high yield strength. For the T6-treated C-20 composites, more than 75% SiC particles were broken up, resulting in the lowest plasticity. As decreasing particle size, the fracture behaviors of the T6-treated composites would change from particle fracture to matrix alloy fracture gradually.

China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position

China＇s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditorposition of 30 percent of GDP in 2008. We test the importance of the growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China＇s net foreign asset position. Our empirical results highlight the sharp fall in the young-age dependence as one key driver behind China ＇s puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that China will unlikely turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades.

Transforming Central Bank Liabilities into Government Debt： The Case of China

Where policy has substantially increased central bank assets, the corresponding liabilities present an opportunity to increase the breadth, depth and liquidity of the government bond market. In China＇s case, transformed illiquid central bank liabilities couM double or triple the stock of government bonds. Central bank liabilities can be transformed into government bonds either through the government ＂s purchase of foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank or by the government overfunding its borrowing requirement and depositing the proceeds in the central bank. The overfunding approach is preferred if, for financial stability reasons, it is judged prudent to leave the central bank with sufficient resources to serve itself as lender of last resort in foreign currency to the banking system. In the case of China, public debt consolidation could also contribute to further liberalizing the Chinese banking system, wider international use of the renminbi and more balanced holdings of key currency government bonds.

Sharing China’s Bank Restructuring Bill

This paper addresses the questions related to the cost of China＇s bank restructuring and how it has been financed. We first propose a framework for recognizing losses. Then, we examine the recent major moves by the Chinese Government to repair the country. ＇s bank balance sheets. Finally, we explore the implications of the Chinese Government＇s methods offunding bank restructuring. We find that the Chinese Government has been decisive in confronting the costly task of bank restructuring. So far, Chinese taxpayers have paid most of the bill for bank restructuring.