Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relie...Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.展开更多
冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡...冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。展开更多
为综合评估南方特色林下仿野生模式栽培金线莲的生态环境效应,应用生命周期评价方法,定量评估该模式所产生的环境影响。结果表明,林下套种模式生产1 kg金线莲耗用的不可再生资源、土地、水资源分别为16702.27 MJ、0.58 m^(2)和13.45 t,...为综合评估南方特色林下仿野生模式栽培金线莲的生态环境效应,应用生命周期评价方法,定量评估该模式所产生的环境影响。结果表明,林下套种模式生产1 kg金线莲耗用的不可再生资源、土地、水资源分别为16702.27 MJ、0.58 m^(2)和13.45 t,该模式充分利用林下空地,占用较少的土地资源。但该模式也带来较大的潜在环境影响,生态环境综合影响值为0.3276,且以水体毒性和富营养化的潜在影响较大。每生产1 kg金线莲,全球变暖、环境酸化、富营养化、人体毒性、水体毒性、土壤毒性分别为2405.83 kg CO_(2)-eq、4.99 kg SO_(2)-eq、1.43 kg PO4-eq、1.32 kg 1,4-DCB-eq、5.31 kg 1,4-DCB-eq和1.09 kg 1,4-DCB-eq;对环境的潜在负面影响以来源于农资系统为主,且以组培苗生产占比最高。林下生产金线莲需要在组培苗生产、农药施用等方面加以改进,以控制其产生的潜在环境影响。展开更多
Various water samples were collected for electrical conductivity (EC) and δ^18O analysis,and the proportion and contribution of atmospheric precipitation,glacier ice and shallow groundwater to discharge in the Koxkar...Various water samples were collected for electrical conductivity (EC) and δ^18O analysis,and the proportion and contribution of atmospheric precipitation,glacier ice and shallow groundwater to discharge in the Koxkar glacier basin at the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains were studied.The results show that glacial ice-water recharge was dominant,accounting for 72.11% of the annual runoff.It also had a significant positive correlation with temperature during the warm season (from May to September).However,glacier ice ablation replenishment still existed when the temperature in the cold season was below the critical temperature of 0 ℃.This could be that the heat generated by the friction between the ice body and the ice bed during the subglacial ice sliding process led ice to melt,what's more,the stored water in the geometric passages inside and below the glacier could slowly release.Groundwater recharge accounted for 16.38% of the total runoff.The supplement was small and its variation range was relatively small in the cold season.But in the warm season,the amount of groundwater recharge increased and changed drastically.It might be that the seasonal frozen soil in the basin was widely developed and was affected by temperature changes.Atmospheric precipitation replenishment only accounted for 11.51%.The daily precipitation recharge river water had a significant response to regional precipitation,but there was hysteresis in time,and there was still precipitation recharge runoff even in the absence of precipitation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3206300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42477529,42371145,42261026)+2 种基金the China-Pakistan Joint Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(046GJHZ2023069MI)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005)the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center(E01Z790201).
文摘Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.
文摘冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。
文摘为综合评估南方特色林下仿野生模式栽培金线莲的生态环境效应,应用生命周期评价方法,定量评估该模式所产生的环境影响。结果表明,林下套种模式生产1 kg金线莲耗用的不可再生资源、土地、水资源分别为16702.27 MJ、0.58 m^(2)和13.45 t,该模式充分利用林下空地,占用较少的土地资源。但该模式也带来较大的潜在环境影响,生态环境综合影响值为0.3276,且以水体毒性和富营养化的潜在影响较大。每生产1 kg金线莲,全球变暖、环境酸化、富营养化、人体毒性、水体毒性、土壤毒性分别为2405.83 kg CO_(2)-eq、4.99 kg SO_(2)-eq、1.43 kg PO4-eq、1.32 kg 1,4-DCB-eq、5.31 kg 1,4-DCB-eq和1.09 kg 1,4-DCB-eq;对环境的潜在负面影响以来源于农资系统为主,且以组培苗生产占比最高。林下生产金线莲需要在组培苗生产、农药施用等方面加以改进,以控制其产生的潜在环境影响。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41471060,41401084,41730751 and 41871055)
文摘Various water samples were collected for electrical conductivity (EC) and δ^18O analysis,and the proportion and contribution of atmospheric precipitation,glacier ice and shallow groundwater to discharge in the Koxkar glacier basin at the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains were studied.The results show that glacial ice-water recharge was dominant,accounting for 72.11% of the annual runoff.It also had a significant positive correlation with temperature during the warm season (from May to September).However,glacier ice ablation replenishment still existed when the temperature in the cold season was below the critical temperature of 0 ℃.This could be that the heat generated by the friction between the ice body and the ice bed during the subglacial ice sliding process led ice to melt,what's more,the stored water in the geometric passages inside and below the glacier could slowly release.Groundwater recharge accounted for 16.38% of the total runoff.The supplement was small and its variation range was relatively small in the cold season.But in the warm season,the amount of groundwater recharge increased and changed drastically.It might be that the seasonal frozen soil in the basin was widely developed and was affected by temperature changes.Atmospheric precipitation replenishment only accounted for 11.51%.The daily precipitation recharge river water had a significant response to regional precipitation,but there was hysteresis in time,and there was still precipitation recharge runoff even in the absence of precipitation.
