The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5 ℃ warming...The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5 ℃ warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2 ℃, but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day. Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China, and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks. Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming. We estimated that the 2 ℃ warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5 ℃ would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31% in Shenzhen city. Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights, with ambulance dispatches increased by 82%. Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the grant from National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFA0606200).
文摘The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5 ℃ warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2 ℃, but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day. Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China, and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks. Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming. We estimated that the 2 ℃ warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5 ℃ would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31% in Shenzhen city. Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights, with ambulance dispatches increased by 82%. Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.
