Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(ex...Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.展开更多
目的了解2021年中国白内障疾病负担现状并对2022—2050年中国白内障的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法从全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021)中获取了中国和全球白内障疾病负担指标数据,包括患病率...目的了解2021年中国白内障疾病负担现状并对2022—2050年中国白内障的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法从全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021)中获取了中国和全球白内障疾病负担指标数据,包括患病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)和年龄标准化率(agestandardized rate,ASR)等。通过这些指标描述2021年中国和全球白内障疾病负担现状,并运用年估计百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)分析1990—2021年间中国白内障疾病负担的变化趋势。利用R4.2.3软件构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型,预测2022—2050年中国白内障的总体患病率和DALY变化情况。结果1990—2021年,全球白内障患者由4233.2[95%不确定区间(uncertain interval,UI):3740.3~4752.7]万人增加至10057.1(95%UI:8877.2~11403.3)万人,中国白内障患者由568.4(95%UI:491.8~651.4)万人增加至1978.5(95%UI:1695.0~2275.8)万人,分别增加了137.6%和248.1%。女性白内障患者的疾病负担指标均高于同时期的男性患者,疾病负担随着年龄增长而升高。全球和中国的白内障疾病负担指标在70~75岁达到峰值。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测结果显示,到2050年,中国男性白内障患者人数预计为3173.3万人,女性患者总数约为5456.1万人;男性白内障患者的DALY绝对数约为111.7万人年,女性患者约为242.8万人年。结论1990—2021年我国白内障的疾病负担有所增加,且女性高于男性。预测模型表明,未来三十年的年龄标化患病率将持续升高,这意味着中国白内障的负担仍然很高。白内障疾病负担是一个严峻的挑战,需要政府、医疗机构和社会各界共同努力,采取有效措施降低白内障的患病率和残疾率,保障人民健康。展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42071222,41771194)。
文摘Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.
文摘目的了解2021年中国白内障疾病负担现状并对2022—2050年中国白内障的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法从全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021)中获取了中国和全球白内障疾病负担指标数据,包括患病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)和年龄标准化率(agestandardized rate,ASR)等。通过这些指标描述2021年中国和全球白内障疾病负担现状,并运用年估计百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)分析1990—2021年间中国白内障疾病负担的变化趋势。利用R4.2.3软件构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型,预测2022—2050年中国白内障的总体患病率和DALY变化情况。结果1990—2021年,全球白内障患者由4233.2[95%不确定区间(uncertain interval,UI):3740.3~4752.7]万人增加至10057.1(95%UI:8877.2~11403.3)万人,中国白内障患者由568.4(95%UI:491.8~651.4)万人增加至1978.5(95%UI:1695.0~2275.8)万人,分别增加了137.6%和248.1%。女性白内障患者的疾病负担指标均高于同时期的男性患者,疾病负担随着年龄增长而升高。全球和中国的白内障疾病负担指标在70~75岁达到峰值。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测结果显示,到2050年,中国男性白内障患者人数预计为3173.3万人,女性患者总数约为5456.1万人;男性白内障患者的DALY绝对数约为111.7万人年,女性患者约为242.8万人年。结论1990—2021年我国白内障的疾病负担有所增加,且女性高于男性。预测模型表明,未来三十年的年龄标化患病率将持续升高,这意味着中国白内障的负担仍然很高。白内障疾病负担是一个严峻的挑战,需要政府、医疗机构和社会各界共同努力,采取有效措施降低白内障的患病率和残疾率,保障人民健康。
