Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced...Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China,the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear.Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change.In this study,we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model(iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata.Then,we designed three drying trend scenarios(reversed drying trend,gradual drying trend,and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China.Finally,the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared.An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system.The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m3 among different drying trend scenarios,suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development.Under the pressures of climate change,water scarcity,and socioeconomic development,the ecotone(i.e.,transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change.Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends.Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe.The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment.In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China,issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally,and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)is the foundation and frontier for integrating multiple land surface processes.This paper aims to systematically review LUCC research from 1990 to 2018.Based on qualitative and quantitative ...Land use/cover change(LUCC)is the foundation and frontier for integrating multiple land surface processes.This paper aims to systematically review LUCC research from 1990 to 2018.Based on qualitative and quantitative analyses,we delineated the history of LUCC research and summarized their characteristics and major progress at different stages.We also identified the main challenges and proposed future directions for LUCC research.We found that the number of publications on LUCC research and their total citations grew exponentially.The research foci shifted from the process of LUCC during 1990-2004 to the impact of LUCC during 2005-2013 and then to the sustainability of LUCC from 2014 onwards.Currently,LUCC research is facing theoretical,methodological and practical challenges ranging from integrating the framework of sustainability science,adopting emerging technologies to supporting territorial spatial planning.To move forward,LUCC research should be closely integrated with landscape sustainability science and geodesign and take the leading role in territorial spatial planning to achieve the related Sustainable Development Goals.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB950901&2014CB954300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41222003)the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(Grant No.2013-RC-03)
文摘Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China,the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear.Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change.In this study,we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model(iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata.Then,we designed three drying trend scenarios(reversed drying trend,gradual drying trend,and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China.Finally,the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared.An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system.The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m3 among different drying trend scenarios,suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development.Under the pressures of climate change,water scarcity,and socioeconomic development,the ecotone(i.e.,transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change.Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends.Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe.The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment.In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China,issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally,and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971270)Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0405)。
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)is the foundation and frontier for integrating multiple land surface processes.This paper aims to systematically review LUCC research from 1990 to 2018.Based on qualitative and quantitative analyses,we delineated the history of LUCC research and summarized their characteristics and major progress at different stages.We also identified the main challenges and proposed future directions for LUCC research.We found that the number of publications on LUCC research and their total citations grew exponentially.The research foci shifted from the process of LUCC during 1990-2004 to the impact of LUCC during 2005-2013 and then to the sustainability of LUCC from 2014 onwards.Currently,LUCC research is facing theoretical,methodological and practical challenges ranging from integrating the framework of sustainability science,adopting emerging technologies to supporting territorial spatial planning.To move forward,LUCC research should be closely integrated with landscape sustainability science and geodesign and take the leading role in territorial spatial planning to achieve the related Sustainable Development Goals.
