Synergistic Interdecadal Evolution of Precipitation over Eastern China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during 1951-2015

By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.

Comparison of multiple salinity datasets:upper ocean salinity and stratification in the tropical Pacific during the Argo period

Ocean salinity is an important variable that affects the ocean stratification.We compared the salinity and ocean stratification in the tropical Pacific derived from the Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography data),EN4(Ensemble 4 analysis),SODA(the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis),IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics data),and ORAS4(Ocean Reanalysis System 4)over 2005–2017.Results show that the spatial distribution of climatological mean of sea surface salinity(SSS)in all the products is consistent,and the low salinity region showed large deviation and strong dispersion.The Argo has the smallest RMSE and the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,while the IAP shows a high-salinity deviations relative to other datasets.All the products show high positive correlations between the sea surface density(SSD)and SSS with respect to the deviations of climatological mean from ensemble mean,suggesting that the SSD deviation may be mainly influenced by the SSS deviation.In the aspect of the ocean stratification,the mixed layer depth(MLD)climatological mean in the Argo shows the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,followed by EN4,IAP,ORAS4,and SODA.The Argo and EN4 show thicker barrier layer(BL)relative to the ensemble mean while the SODA displays the largest negative deviation in the tropical western Pacific.Furthermore,the EN4,ORAS4,and IAP underestimate the stability in the upper ocean at the depths of 20–140 m,while Argo overestimates ocean stability.The salinity fronts in the western-central equatorial Pacific from Argo,EN4,and ORAS4 are consistent,while those from SODA and IAP show large deviations with a westward position in amplitude of 0°–6°and 0°–10°,respectively.The SSS trend patterns from all the products are consistent in having ensemble mean with high spatial correlations of 0.95–0.97.

Asymmetry of Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific during Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Phases

It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.

Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations

Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.

Assessment of Interannual Sea Surface Salinity Variability and Its Effects on the Barrier Layer in the Equatorial Pacific Using BNU-ESM

As salinity stratification is necessary to form the barrier layer （BL）, the quantification of its role in BL interannual variability is crucial. This study assessed salinity variability and its effect on the BL in the equatorial Pacific using outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model （BNU-ESM） simulations. A comparison between observations and the BNU-ESM simulations demonstrated that BNU-ESM has good capability in reproducing most of the interannual features observed in nature. Despite some discrepancies in both magnitude and location of the interannual variability centers, the displacements of sea surface salinity （SSS）, barrier layer thickness （BLT）, and SST simulated by BNU-ESM in the equatorial Pacific are realistic. During E1 Nifio, for example, the modeled interannual anomalies of BLT, mixed layer depth, and isothermal layer depth, exhibit good correspondence with observations, including the development and decay of E1 Nifio in the central Pacific, whereas the intensity of the interannual variabilities is weaker relative to observations. Due to the bias in salinity simulations, the SSS front extends farther west along the equator, whereas BLT variability is weaker in the central Pacific than in observations. Further, the BNU-ESM simulations were examined to assess the relative effects of salinity and temperature variability on BLT. Consistent with previous observation-based analyses, the interannual salinity variability can make a significant contribution to BLT relative to temperature in the western-central equatorial Pacific.

Salinity effects on the 2014 warm “Blob” in the Northeast Pacific

A significant strong, warm “Blob”(a large circular water body with a positive ocean temperature anomaly) appeared in the Northeast Pacific (NEP) in the boreal winter of 2013 2014, which induced many extreme climate events in the US and Canada. In this study, analyses of the temperature and salinity anomaly variations from the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) data provided insights into the formation of the warm “Blob” over the NEP. The early negative salinity anomaly dominantly contributed to the shallower mixed layer depth (MLD) in the NEP during the period of 2012 2013. Then, the shallower mixed layer trapped more heat in the upper water column and resulted in a warmer sea surface temperature (SST), which enhanced the warm “Blob”. The salinity variability contributed to approximately 60% of the shallowing MLD related to the warm “Blob”. The salinity anomaly in the warm “Blob” region resulted from a combination of both local and nonlocal effects. The freshened water at the surface played a local role in the MLD anomaly. Interestingly, the MLD anomaly was more dependent on the local subsurface salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range in the NEP. The salinity anomaly in the 50-100 m depth range may be linked to the anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range by vertical advection or mixing. The salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range resulted from the eastward transportation of a subducted water mass that was freshened west of the dateline, which played a nonlocal role. The results suggest that the early salinity anomaly in the NEP related to the warm “Blob” may be a precursor signal of interannual and interdecadal variabilities.

Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific:A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

通过比较CMIP5和CMIP6来自同一个单位两代模式模拟,表明CMIP5和CMIP6均能较好地模拟出热带太平洋的海表盐度(SSS)和淡水通量(FWF)对ENSO响应的分布及其响应间的关系.与CMIP5模式相比,大部份CMIP6模式模拟的SSS和FWF年际变化分布均呈现改进,特别是纠正了较低的中西太平洋SSS和FWF变化的空间关系.但是,整体上,CMIP6模式模拟的SSS年际变化技巧没有提高,与SSS年际变率的强度被高估有关.CMIP5和CMIP6模式模拟SSS的年际变化还存在较大的不确定性,在物理方面需要改进.

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Large-Scale Circulation Features of Extreme Weather Events in Shanxi Province, China in Recent 30 Years

Extreme weather events such as persistent high temperatures, heavy rains or sudden cold waves in Shanxi Province in China have brought great losses and disasters to people’s production and life. It is of great practical significance to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme weather events and the circulation background field. We selected daily high temperature data (≥35°C), daily minimum temperature data and daily precipitation data (≥50 mm) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province, China from 1981 to 2010, then set the period in which the temperature is ≥35°C for more than 3 days as a high temperature extreme weather event, define the station in which 24 hour cumulative precipitation is ≥50 mm precipitation on a certain day (20 - 20 hours, Beijing time) as a rainstorm weather, and determine the cold air activity with daily minimum temperature dropped by more than 8°C for 24 hours, or decreased by 10°C for 48 h, and a daily minimum temperature of ≤4°C as a cold weather process. We statistically analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics and trends of high temperature, heavy rain and cold weather and the circulation background field. We count the number of extreme weather events such as persistent high temperatures, heavy rains and cold weather frosts in Shanxi, and analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, trends and general circulation background of extreme weather events. We analyze and find out the common features of the large-scale circulation background field in various extreme weather events. Through the study of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme weather events in Shanxi, including persistent high temperature, heavy rain or sudden cold wave frost weather, we summarize the large-scale circulation characteristics of such extreme weather events. It will provide some reference for future related weather forecasting.

Salinity effect-induced ENSO amplitude modulation in association with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.

Sea surface salinity-derived indexes for distinguishing two types of El Niño events in the tropical Pacific

In this study,sea surface salinity(SSS)indexes are derived from reanalysis and observational datasets to distinguish the two types of(Central Pacific(CP)and Eastern Pacific(EP))El Niño events in the tropical Pacific.Based on the SSS anomalous spatial and temporal pointwise correlations with sea surface temperature(SST)indexes of two types of El Niño events,the key areas with SSS variations for EP and CP El Niño events are identified.For EP El Niño events,the key areas are located over an arcuate area centered at(0°,130°E)and in the central equatorial Pacific covering(5°S–5°N,175°W–158°W).For CP El Niño events,the key areas are located in the northeastern western Pacific covering(2°N,142°E–170°E)and in the southeastern Pacific covering(20°S–10°S,135°W–95°W).The key areas for EP and CP El Niño events in this study are not located near the dateline in the equatorial Pacific and differ from those obtained from the regression or composite methods.Accordingly,these key areas are used to construct SSS indexes,termed as the CP/EP El Niño SSS index(CSI/ESI),to distinguish EP and CP El Niño events independently.The SSS indexes are verified by different datasets over varying time periods and they can be adequately used to identify the two types of El Niño events and serve as another useful tool for monitoring ENSO.These analyses offer novel insight into how to represent the diversity of El Niño events.