利用惩罚最大T检验(Penalized Maximal T test,PMT)方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温(SAT)资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度(S...利用惩罚最大T检验(Penalized Maximal T test,PMT)方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温(SAT)资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度(SST)进行了均一性检验与订正,并分析了造成海表温度序列非均一的主要原因。结果表明,中国沿海海洋台站海表温度资料存在较为严重的非均一性问题,几乎所有的台站都存在断点,仪器变更(包括人工观测转自动观测)(占总断点数的52.4%)和迁站(占总断点数的33.3%)是造成序列非均一的主要原因。整套资料负订正量所占比例较高,这种负订正量与人工转自动观测后海表温度观测值偏低有密切关系。这也使得订正后中国沿海平均海表温度趋势与订正前存在明显差异,订正后中国沿海海表温度呈明显的加速上升趋势。展开更多
This article analyses differences in the attitudes related to climate change of young scholars in environmental science in Qingdao (China) and Hamburg (Germany). The main aim of the article is to evaluate the role of ...This article analyses differences in the attitudes related to climate change of young scholars in environmental science in Qingdao (China) and Hamburg (Germany). The main aim of the article is to evaluate the role of cultural differences for their explanation. We expect no significant differences in the attitudes related to the findings of climate research, since scientific principles are the joint basis of the scientific discourse wordwide. However, we expect that there are differences in the attitudes of the young scholars about the role of science, of the state and of the civil society for dealing with the challenge of climate change. We suggest that these can be explained with substantial cultural differences between both societies, with regard to the role of the state and the civil society for the solution of environmental problems. In order to evaluate these hypotheses, we have conducted a comparative survey among environmental science students in Qingdao (China) and Hamburg (Germany) about their attitudes towards climate change. The findings support our main hypotheses. The young scholars in Qingdao and Hamburg differ substantially in their views of the role of science in society and policymaking. Plausibly, these differences may mainly be explained with differences in the cultural ideas about the role of the state and of the civil society for the solution of environmental problems. Gradual differences in the share of young scholars who think that climate change has anthropogenic causes, may be explained with differences in the curriculum but also by cultural habits. This article makes a new contribution to the scientific debate by exploring the role of cultural differences for differences in the attitudes of young scholars in environmental science in connection with climate change and climate policy in different cultural contexts.展开更多
This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and ...This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent;and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the Mann- Kendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3°C to 0.6°C (1.2°C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.展开更多
The lockdown of large parts of Chinese economy beginning in late January 2020 lead to significant regional changes of aerosol loads, which suggests a reduction of backscatter and consequently a regional warming in the...The lockdown of large parts of Chinese economy beginning in late January 2020 lead to significant regional changes of aerosol loads, which suggests a reduction of backscatter and consequently a regional warming in the following months. Using local data and a numerical experiment with a limited area model, we have examined how strong this response may have been. The observed (local and reanalysis) observations point to a warming of less than 1.0 K, the simulations to a warming of the order of 0.5 K. These numbers are uncertain, because of large-scale natural variability and an ad-hoc choice of aerosol optical depth anomaly in the simulation. Thus, the result was, in short, that there was actually a weak warming of a few tenth of degrees, while noteworthy changes in circulation or in precipitation were not detected. More specifically, we found that at selected central China stations temperatures were found to be higher than in previous two years. This warming goes with a marked diurnal signal, with a maximum warming in the early afternoon (06 UTC), weakest at night (18 UTC). This may be related to a general warming of large swaths of Asia (including Siberia, which is not related to local aerosol forcing). Indeed, also the stations outside the immediate strong lockdown region are showing warming, albeit a weaker one. Thus, the difference 2020 minus 2019/2018 may overestimate the effect. The ad-hoc series of numerical experiments indicates that the simulated changes are robust and suffer little from internal dynamical variability. In particular, the overall reduction of the aerosol optical depth does not lead to phases of larger intermittent divergence among the model simulations, irrespective of the aerosol load. Instead, the simulations with reduced anthropogenic aerosol load show more a mere locally increased temperature. This may indicate that the aerosol effect is mostly thermodynamic in all local air columns in the region.展开更多
文摘利用惩罚最大T检验(Penalized Maximal T test,PMT)方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温(SAT)资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度(SST)进行了均一性检验与订正,并分析了造成海表温度序列非均一的主要原因。结果表明,中国沿海海洋台站海表温度资料存在较为严重的非均一性问题,几乎所有的台站都存在断点,仪器变更(包括人工观测转自动观测)(占总断点数的52.4%)和迁站(占总断点数的33.3%)是造成序列非均一的主要原因。整套资料负订正量所占比例较高,这种负订正量与人工转自动观测后海表温度观测值偏低有密切关系。这也使得订正后中国沿海平均海表温度趋势与订正前存在明显差异,订正后中国沿海海表温度呈明显的加速上升趋势。
文摘This article analyses differences in the attitudes related to climate change of young scholars in environmental science in Qingdao (China) and Hamburg (Germany). The main aim of the article is to evaluate the role of cultural differences for their explanation. We expect no significant differences in the attitudes related to the findings of climate research, since scientific principles are the joint basis of the scientific discourse wordwide. However, we expect that there are differences in the attitudes of the young scholars about the role of science, of the state and of the civil society for dealing with the challenge of climate change. We suggest that these can be explained with substantial cultural differences between both societies, with regard to the role of the state and the civil society for the solution of environmental problems. In order to evaluate these hypotheses, we have conducted a comparative survey among environmental science students in Qingdao (China) and Hamburg (Germany) about their attitudes towards climate change. The findings support our main hypotheses. The young scholars in Qingdao and Hamburg differ substantially in their views of the role of science in society and policymaking. Plausibly, these differences may mainly be explained with differences in the cultural ideas about the role of the state and of the civil society for the solution of environmental problems. Gradual differences in the share of young scholars who think that climate change has anthropogenic causes, may be explained with differences in the curriculum but also by cultural habits. This article makes a new contribution to the scientific debate by exploring the role of cultural differences for differences in the attitudes of young scholars in environmental science in connection with climate change and climate policy in different cultural contexts.
文摘This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent;and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the Mann- Kendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3°C to 0.6°C (1.2°C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.
文摘The lockdown of large parts of Chinese economy beginning in late January 2020 lead to significant regional changes of aerosol loads, which suggests a reduction of backscatter and consequently a regional warming in the following months. Using local data and a numerical experiment with a limited area model, we have examined how strong this response may have been. The observed (local and reanalysis) observations point to a warming of less than 1.0 K, the simulations to a warming of the order of 0.5 K. These numbers are uncertain, because of large-scale natural variability and an ad-hoc choice of aerosol optical depth anomaly in the simulation. Thus, the result was, in short, that there was actually a weak warming of a few tenth of degrees, while noteworthy changes in circulation or in precipitation were not detected. More specifically, we found that at selected central China stations temperatures were found to be higher than in previous two years. This warming goes with a marked diurnal signal, with a maximum warming in the early afternoon (06 UTC), weakest at night (18 UTC). This may be related to a general warming of large swaths of Asia (including Siberia, which is not related to local aerosol forcing). Indeed, also the stations outside the immediate strong lockdown region are showing warming, albeit a weaker one. Thus, the difference 2020 minus 2019/2018 may overestimate the effect. The ad-hoc series of numerical experiments indicates that the simulated changes are robust and suffer little from internal dynamical variability. In particular, the overall reduction of the aerosol optical depth does not lead to phases of larger intermittent divergence among the model simulations, irrespective of the aerosol load. Instead, the simulations with reduced anthropogenic aerosol load show more a mere locally increased temperature. This may indicate that the aerosol effect is mostly thermodynamic in all local air columns in the region.
