Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟Ⅰ局地海气相互作用

检验了一个全球海气耦合模式对北大西洋年际气候变率的模拟,讨论了导致这种年际变率型的物理机制,并分析了其对年代际变率的可能影响。北大西洋冬季SST的主导变率模态,在经向上表现为三核型,自北而南出现“-+-”的带状距平型;最大距平中心位于副极地大洋、中纬度大洋的西部以及热带海域,耦合模式较为真实地再现了这一特征。与三核型SST异常相对应的大气环流型表现为北大西洋涛动,具有显著的正压结构。上述异常型主要发生在年际尺度,具有3—4年的谱峰;在次年代际尺度上,也存在谱峰。分析表明,模式中三核型SST异常的产生,主要来自大气的强迫,NAO增强,中纬度大洋上的西风减弱,海洋感热和潜热通量损失减少,中纬度大洋得到的净热通量增加,导致SST出现正距平;在包括Labrador海在内的副极地大洋,NAO增强、冰岛低压加深,气旋性环流增强,来自高纬度的冷空气吹过洋面,海气温差加大,大洋的感热通量损失增加,SST降低。热带地区东风的增强,也是导致那里SST降低的重要机制。三核型SST异常对大气的反馈作用较弱,文中没有证据表明它能够影响到北大西洋地区的年代际气候变率。

北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟II:热带太平洋强迫

利用一个全球海气耦合模式(BCM),结合观测资料,讨论了热带太平洋强迫对北大西洋年际气候变率的影响。研究表明,BCM能够相对合理地模拟赤道太平洋的年际变率模态及相应的海温距平型和大气遥相关型,尽管其准3年的振荡周期过于规则。来自数值模式和观测上的证据都表明,北大西洋冬季海温的主导性变率模态,即自北而南出现的“-+-”的海温距平型,受到来自热带太平洋强迫的显著影响,其正位相与赤道中东太平洋冷事件相对应。换言之,赤道太平洋暖事件的发生,在太平洋-北美沿岸激发出PNA遥相关型,进而通过在北大西洋产生类似NAO负位相的气压距平型,削弱本来与NAO正位相直接联系的三核型海温距平。北大西洋三核型海温距平对热带太平洋强迫的响应,要滞后2—3个月的时间。

高纬度淡水强迫增强背景下大西洋经向翻转环流的响应及其机制

利用卑尔根海洋-大气-海冰耦合气候模式(Bergen Climate Model,简称BCM),研究在北冰洋及北欧海淡水强迫增强的背景下,大西洋经向翻转环流(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,简称AMOC)的响应及其机制,着重讨论了海表热力性质、北大西洋深层水(North Atlantic Deep Water,简称NADW)的生成率、海洋内部等密度层间的垂直混合(Diapycnal Mixing,简称DM)以及大气风场等物理过程随AMOC的响应所发生的时间演变特征。结果显示,在持续150年增强(强度为0.4 Sv)的淡水强迫下(淡水试验,FW1),AMOC的强度表现为前50年的快速减弱和在接下来100年中的逐渐恢复。同时,在淡水试验的前50年北大西洋高纬度海表盐度(Sea Surface Salinity,简称SSS)减小,海水密度降低,冬季对流混合减弱,导致NADW生成率快速减弱;在接下来的100年中,尽管增强的淡水强迫依然维持,由于海洋内部自身的调节和海气相互作用,导致了AMOC的逐渐恢复。恢复机制可以概括为:(1)随着向南的NADW的减少,大西洋中低纬度海水垂直层结逐渐减弱,DM随之逐渐增强,有利于中低纬度海盆内深层水的上升;(2)南半球西风应力增强与东风应力的减弱及北半球东风的增强使得大西洋向北的埃克曼体积通量净传输恢复;(3)大西洋向北的盐度传输逐渐恢复及次极地回旋区降水的减弱,导致SSS和NADW生成率的恢复,与之对应,AMOC逐渐恢复。研究还发现,淡水试验中,NADW的恢复主要以厄尔明格海(Irminger Sea)为主,冬季北大西洋海平面气压场(SLP)呈现类似正北大西洋涛动(NAO+)的模态,热带降水中心移到赤道以南,大西洋热带SSS增强。

卑尔根气候模式中大西洋热盐环流年代际与年际变率的气候影响

利用一个全球海气耦合模式———卑尔根气候模式的积分结果 ,揭示了与大西洋热盐环流 (THC)年代际和年际振荡相对应的气候异常型。年代际振荡发生在全海盆尺度 ,伴有亚速尔高压的增强、冰岛低压的加深 ;年际振荡发生在局地尺度 ,伴有亚速尔高压的减弱。这两种海平面气压异常型都反映了北大西洋涛动 (NAO)活动中心的强度变化 ,两种变率型对应的拉布拉多海对流活动都加剧。但伴随局地尺度的THC调整 ,伊尔明格海的对流活动减弱。蒸发异常对拉布拉多海表层盐度异常的影响较为显著。分析表明 ,局地尺度的THC振荡主要是对大气强迫的被动响应 ,而海盆尺度THC振荡的实质是反映整个输送带的强度变化 ,其气候意义要大于THC的局地振荡。

Sensitivity of East Asian Climate to the Progressive Uplift and Expansion of the Tibetan Plateau Under the Mid-Pliocene Boundary Conditions

A global atmospheric general circulation model has been used to perform eleven idealized numerical experiments, i.e., TP10, TP10, .., TP100, corresponding to different percentages of the Tibetan Plateau altitude. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of East Asian climate to the uplift and expansion of the Tibetan Plateau under the reconstructed boundary conditions for the mid-Pliocene about 3 Ma ago. When the plateau is progressively uplifted, global annual surface temperature is gradually declined and statistically significant cooling signals emerge only in the Northern Hemisphere, especially over and around the Tibetan Plateau, with larger magnitudes over land than over the oceans. On the contrary, annual surface temperature rises notably over Central Asia and most parts of Africa, as well as over northeasternmost Eurasia in the experiments TP60 to TP100. Meanwhile, the plateau uplift also leads to annual precipitation augmentation over the Tibetan Plateau but a reduction in northern Asia, the Indian Peninsula, much of Central Asia, parts of western Asia and the southern portions of northeastern Europe. Additionally, it is found that an East Asian summer monsoon system similar to that of the present initially exists in the TP60 and is gradually intensified with the continued plateau uplift. At 850 hPa the plateau uplift induces an anomalous cyclonic circulation around the Tibetan Plateau in summertime and two anomalous westerly currents respectively located to the south and north of the Tibetan Plateau in wintertime. In the mid-troposphere, similarto-modern spatial pattern of summertime western North Pacific subtropical high is only exhibited in the experiments TP60 to TP100, and the East Asian trough is steadily deepened in response to the progressive uplift and expansion of the Tibetan Plateau.

Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.

A Preliminary Study on the Relationship Between Arctic Oscillation and Daily SLP Variance in the Northern Hemisphere During Wintertime

In the present study, the authors investigated the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the high-frequency variability of daily sea level pressures in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (November through March), using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the time period of 1948/49-2000/01. High-frequency signals are defined as those with timescales shorter than three weeks and measured in terms of variance, for each winter for each grid. The correlations between monthly mean AO index and high-frequency variance are conducted. A predominant feature is that several regional centers with high correlation show up in the middle to high latitudes. Significant areas include mid- to high-latitude Asia centered at Siberia, northern Europe and the middle-latitude North Atlantic east of northern Africa. Their strong correlations can also be confirmed by the singular value decomposition analysis of covariance between mean SLP and high-frequency variance. This indicates that the relationship of AO with daily Sea Level Pressure (SLP) is confined to some specific regions in association with the inherent atmospheric dynamics. In middle-latitude Asia, there is a significant (at the 95% level) trend of variance of-2.26% (10 yr)-1. Another region that displays a strong trend is the northwestern Pacific with a significant rate of change of 0.80% (10 yr)-1. If the winter of 1948/49, an apparent outlier, is excluded, a steady linear trend of +1.51% (10 yr)-1 shows up in northern Europe. The variance probability density functions (PDFs) are found to change in association with different AO phases. The changes corresponding to high and low AO phases, however, are asymmetric in these regions. Some regions such as northern Europe display much stronger changes in high AO years, whereas some other regions such as Siberia show a stronger connection to low AO conditions. These features are supported by ECMWF reanalysis data. However, the dynamical mechanisms involved in the AO-high frequency SLP variance connection have not been well understood, and this needs further study.

Revisiting Effect of Ocean Diapycnal Mixing on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Recovery in a Freshwater Perturbation Simulation

The effects of ocean density vertical stratification and related ocean mixing on the transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC） are examined in a freshwater perturbation simulation using the Bergen Climate Model （BCM）. The results presented here are based on the model outputs of a previous freshwater experiment： a 300-year control integration （CTRL）, a freshwater integration （FW1） which started after 100 years of running the CTRL with an artificially and continuously threefold increase in the freshwater flux to the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian （GIN） Seas and the Arctic Ocean throughout the following 150-year simulation. In FW1, the transient response of the AMOC exhibits an initial decreasing of about 6 Sv （1 Sv=106 m3 s^-1） over the first 50-year integration and followed a gradual recovery during the last 100-year integration. Our results show that the vertical density stratification as the crucial property of the interior ocean plays an important role for the transient responses of AMOC by regulating the convective and diapycnal mixings under the enhanced freshwater input to northern high latitudes in BCM in which the ocean diapycnal mixing is stratification-dependent. The possible mechanism is also investigated in this paper.

A Possible Feedback Mechanism Involving the Arctic Freshwater,the Arctic Sea Ice,and the North Atlantic Drift

Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater ?uxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes, the combined e?ect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming—the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice—is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration, one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runo?, and a third more extreme case, where the river runo? is ?ve times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases, the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5–2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift. Furthermore, changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensi?ed Beaufort Gyre, which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass, more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic, leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift.

The Effect of Diapycnal Mixing on the Ventilation and CFC-11 Uptake in the Southern Ocean

The Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) is used to investigate the effect of diapycnal mixing on the oceanic uptake of CFC-11 and the ventilation of the surface waters in the Southern Ocean (south of 45°S). Three model experiments are performed: one with a diapycnal mixing coefficientK d (m2 s?1) of 2 × 10?7/N (Expt. 1), one withK d = 0 (Expt. 2), and one withK d = 5 × 10?8/N (Expt. 3),N (s?1) is the Brunt-V?is?l? frequency. The model simulations indicate that the observed vertical distribution of CFC-11 along 88°W (prime meridian at 0°E) in the Southern Ocean is caused by local ventilation of the surface waters and westward-directed (eastward-directed) isopycnic transport and mixing from deeply ventilated waters in the Weddell Sea region. It is found that at the end of 1997, the simulated net ocean uptake of CFC-11 in Expt. 2 is 25% below that of Expt. 1. The decreased uptake of CFC-11 in the Southern Ocean accounts for 80% of this difference. Furthermore, Expts. 2 and 3 yield far more realistic vertical distributions of the ventilated CFC-waters than Expt. 1. The experiments clearly highlight the sensitivity of the Southern Ocean surface water ventilation to the distribution and thickness of the simulated mixed layer. It is argued that inclusion of CFCs in coupled climate models could be used as a test-bed for evaluating the decadal-scale ocean uptake of heat and CO2.

Diagnosing Ocean Tracer Transport from Sellafield and Dounreay by Equivalent Diffusion and Age

A simple approach for estimating the equivalent diffusion for diagnosing tracer transport is proposed. Two different expressions are derived; one is based directly on an analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation, the other uses the variance of the tracer distribution. To illustrate some features of the equivalent diffusion and possible applications thereof, idealized releases of passive tracers from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants at Sellafield in the Irish Sea and Dounreay on the northern coast of Scotland have been simulated with a regional isopycnic co-ordinate Ocean General Circulation Model. Both continuous and pulse releases are considered; the former being representative of the actual historical discharges from the reprocessing plants, the latter resembling an accidental scenario. Age tracers are included to calculate the mean time elapsed since the tracers left their source regions. It is found that in the Nordic Seas the age of tracers from Dounreay is approximately 2 years younger than the age from Sellafield. Although tracers from both sources eventually end up along the same transport routes, significant qualitative differences regarding the dispersion properties are found. It is argued that one single parameter, the equivalent horizontal diffusion, which is estimated to be in the range of 20 56 m^2 s^-1 from Sellafield and 170-485 m^2 s^-1 from Dounreay, determines these differences.

Diapycnal Mixing in Transient Responses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in an Enhanced Freshwater Perturbation Experiment

It has been reported recently that the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) using the coupled Bergen climate model(BCM) showed initial intensity declines followed by gradual recoveries over a 150-year enhanced freshwater input experiment.Stratification-dependent oceanic diapycnal mixing has been hypothesized as a reason for the simulated recovery of the AMOC.This study investigated the role of diapycnal mixing in transient responses of simulated AMOCs.Our results showed that stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing can cause stronger upwelling of deep water in the tropical Atlantic than that produced under conditions of fixed diapycnal mixing.Moreover,simulated AMOCs were more sensitive to active stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing than fixed mixing.However,stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing cannot be conclusively singled out as the critical cause of the recoveries of simulated AMOCs under enhanced-freshwater inputs.