The indispensable role of resilience in rational landslide risk management for social sustainability

Landslide disasters reflect the conflict between human society and the natural environment,posing challenges to the sustainable development of mountain regions.Identification of potential landslides,estimation of the degree of damage and potential losses of elements at risk,and control of the loss are the major tasks of landslide risk management.Resilience is defined as a social system’s comprehensive abilities to cope with disasters,including the abilities to prepare,anticipate,preserve,absorb,respond,resist,recover,mitigate,learn,and adapt.As an indispensable role,resilience enables more rational landslide risk management for social sustainability.However,quantitative landslide risk management does not pay sufficient attention to the role of resilience.Hence,in this paper,the role of resilience in a landslide risk management framework is systematically discussed.A quantita-tive landslide risk management framework consists of hazard analysis,exposure analysis,risk estimation,risk evaluation,and risk control.In hazard analysis,resilience assessment could help identify potential landslides that could cause significant damage due to the poor resilience of the elements at risk.Resilience assessment in exposure analysis might aid in identifying the most vulnerable elements or regions to certain landslides.Consid-eration of resilience in risk estimation aids in the calculation of indirect losses and improves the results of direct losses analysis.In risk evaluation,resilience as a disaster-coping ability will impact the social system’s landslide risk tolerance threshold.Enhancing resilience is an essential strategy to reduce the vulnerability of social sys-tems.We also proposed that the efficient use of risk information will increase the accuracy of landslide resilience assessments.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Geological and surfacial processes and major disaster effects in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB) is characterized by active geological and tectonic processes, rapid geomorphological evolution, and distinct climatic diversity. Correspondingly, major disasters in the YRB are characterized by varied types,extensive distributions, and sudden occurrences. In addition, major disasters in the YRB usually evolve into disaster chains that cause severe consequences. Therefore, major disasters in the YRB destroy ecologies and environments and influence geological and ecological safety in the basin. This paper systematically reviews research on geological and surface processes, major disaster effects, and risk mitigation in the YRB, discusses the trends and challenges of relevant research, analyzes the key scientific problems that need to be solved, and suggests prospects for future research based on the earth system science concept. Themes of research that should be focused on include geological, surface and climatic processes in the YRB and their interlinking disaster gestation mechanisms;formation mechanisms and disaster chain evolutions of giant landslides in the upper reach of the YRB;mechanisms and disaster chain effects of loess water-soil disasters in the middle reach of the YRB;occurrence patterns and amplifying effects of giant flood chains in the lower reach of the YRB;and risk mitigations of major disasters in the YRB. Key scientific problems that need to be solved are as follows: how to reveal the geological, surface and climatic processes that are coupled and interlinked with gestation mechanisms of major disasters;how to clarify the mutual feedback effects between major disasters and ecology;and how to develop a human-environmental harmony-based integrated risk mitigation system for major disasters. Prospects for future studies that follow the earth system science concept include the following: highlighting interdisciplinary research to reveal the interlinked disaster gestation mechanisms of the geology, surface and climate in the YRB in the past, present, and future;forming theories to clarify the regional patterns, dynamic mechanisms, and mutual-feedback effects between disaster chains and ecology in the YRB on land and in rivers in the region;solving technological bottlenecks to develop assessment models and mitigation theories for integrated risks in the YRB by following the human-environment harmony concept;and finally, establishing a demonstratable application pattern characterized by "whole-basin coverage" and "zonal controls", thereby guaranteeing ecological and geological safety in the basin and providing scientific support for ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB.