High-resolution tsunami hazard assessment for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on a non-hydrostatic tsunami model

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)is threatened by potential tsunami hazards from the Littoral Fault Zone(LFZ)and the Manila subduction zone(MSZ),and may suffer huge damage because of its dense population,concentrated infrastructure,and low-lying coasts.Previous tsunami studies for the GBA made simple assumptions on the mechanisms of LFZ earthquakes,and used coarse bathymetry data in tsunami simulation,which limited the prediction of detailed tsunami hazard characteristics.In this paper,we develop a parallel dispersive tsunami model PCOMCOT to efficiently simulate dispersive,nonlinear,and breaking tsunami waves.We also construct large-scale and high-resolution bathymetry models for the GBA by correcting and integrating various data sources.Dynamic rupture simulation is performed for the LFZ to obtain a more reliable earthquake source model.We propose several representative earthquake scenarios for the LFZ and MSZ,and use PCOMCOT to calculate the resulting tsunami waves,currents,and inundation in the GBA.Our results indicate that if an M_(w)7.5 oblique-slip earthquake occurs in the LFZ off the Pearl River Estuary(PRE),the subsequent tsunami will primarily impact Hong Kong,causing maximum positive and negative waves of around 1 m and -2 m,respectively,along with slightly destructive currents(≥1.5 m/s).An M_(w)9.0 MSZ megathrust earthquake can lead to widespread inundation with>1 m depth on the outlying islands of Macao and in the urban areas of Hong Kong around the Victoria Harbour.Besides,it will also cause catastrophic tsunami currents along the narrow waterways in Hong Kong and Macao,and the spatial distribution of strong currents(≥3 m/s)shows a considerable discrepancy from the areas of serious inundation.Thus,more attention should be paid to the potential impacts of tsunami currents on the GBA.

Influence of self-similar stresses on scenario earthquake construction:An example along the Tanlu Fault

As a famous deep and large fault in eastern China,the Tanlu Fault passes through Anhui,Jiangsu,and Shandong and into northeastern China.It is important to improve the understanding of seismic hazard assessments in areas near faults.We start a scenario earthquake simulation in the M7.5 earthquake potential area of the Xinyi-Sihong segment of the Tanlu Fault.The fault rupture length and width are constrained according to the scaling law of large intraplate earthquakes,the background normal stress is depth dependent,and the initial shear stresses are determined using trial and error by matching the earthquake magnitude.Considering the 120 km rupture length of the M7.5 earthquake,we compare the horizontal uniform stress model and self-similar stress perturbation model.Our findings reveal that the seismic source time function of the horizontal uniform stress model is similar to that of the Haskell model and that of the self-similar stress perturbation model is more similar to that of a real earthquake case.We compare the dynamic rupture simulation and ground motion results under four different stress conditions and find that the shorter the characteristic length of the self-similar function is,the rougher the initial stress.For the M7.5earthquake with an epicenter in the vicinity of Suqian,the Xinyi-Tancheng segment,which is located in the IX-intensity zone north of the epicenter,vibrates more strongly on the northern side than on the southern side due to the influence of the lowvelocity zone and the peak slip rate.The response spectra analysis at stations in the study area is useful for improving the earthquake resistance capability.

A Physics‑Based Seismic Risk Assessment of the Qujiang Fault:From Dynamic Rupture to Disaster Estimation

This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.