Influence of self-similar stresses on scenario earthquake construction:An example along the Tanlu Fault

As a famous deep and large fault in eastern China,the Tanlu Fault passes through Anhui,Jiangsu,and Shandong and into northeastern China.It is important to improve the understanding of seismic hazard assessments in areas near faults.We start a scenario earthquake simulation in the M7.5 earthquake potential area of the Xinyi-Sihong segment of the Tanlu Fault.The fault rupture length and width are constrained according to the scaling law of large intraplate earthquakes,the background normal stress is depth dependent,and the initial shear stresses are determined using trial and error by matching the earthquake magnitude.Considering the 120 km rupture length of the M7.5 earthquake,we compare the horizontal uniform stress model and self-similar stress perturbation model.Our findings reveal that the seismic source time function of the horizontal uniform stress model is similar to that of the Haskell model and that of the self-similar stress perturbation model is more similar to that of a real earthquake case.We compare the dynamic rupture simulation and ground motion results under four different stress conditions and find that the shorter the characteristic length of the self-similar function is,the rougher the initial stress.For the M7.5earthquake with an epicenter in the vicinity of Suqian,the Xinyi-Tancheng segment,which is located in the IX-intensity zone north of the epicenter,vibrates more strongly on the northern side than on the southern side due to the influence of the lowvelocity zone and the peak slip rate.The response spectra analysis at stations in the study area is useful for improving the earthquake resistance capability.

A Physics‑Based Seismic Risk Assessment of the Qujiang Fault:From Dynamic Rupture to Disaster Estimation

This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.