Tradeoffanalysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China

China is the world’s largest consumer of pork and grains.However,African swine fever(ASF)and the COVID-19 outbreak have greatly impacted the pork supply and food security in China.How can food security and the pork supply be ensured under the dual impacts of COVID-19 and ASF?This is a major problem to be urgently solved by the Chinese government.This study indicated that the main pork production and sales areas in China were separated,which reflected the spatial imbalance between the supply and demand.The total area of suitable selected sites for pig farms in China is 21.5 million ha.If only the areas with levels of high and moderate suitability are considered as potential sites for pig farms,the potential pork production can reach 56.1 million tons in China,which is slightly lower than demand.Due to the impact of the ASF epidemic,the food consumed by pigs has been reduced by 34.7 million tons.However,with increasing pork productivity in the future,the self-sufficiency rate of grains may further decline.On the premise that the quality of people’s life is not affected,the diversification of meat supply channels should be realized in an orderly and sustainable way,which might alleviate the pressure on food supply.This study provides a theoretical reference for the spatiotemporal layout of the swine industry and addresses the issue of food security in China under the influence of ASF and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Study on soybean potential productivity and food security in China under the influence of COVID-19 outbreak

The COVID-19 outbreak that became a global pandemic in early 2020 is starting to affect agricultural supply chains and leading to a rapid rise in global food prices.As many grain exporting countries announced a ban on grain exports,food security issues in China have attracted a significant international attention.Based on the Suitability Distribution Model and Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model,we explored the relationship between soybean production potential and food security.We calculated that the soybean potential planting area in China is 164.3 million ha.If the outbreak prevents China from importing soybeans,soybean planting area will need to be increased by 6.9 times to satisfy the demands.In the meantime,cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%,which will greatly affect food security.Each additional unit of soybean production will reduce 3.9 units of cereal production,and 1%increase in the self-sufficiency rate of soybean will result in a 0.63%drop in the self-sufficiency rate of cereal.Without sacrificing the self-sufficiency rate of cereal,the self-sufficiency rate of soybean is limited to 42%.Consequently,China will still need to import more than 68%of the current import volume of soybean.Although in the short term,the outbreak will not affect food security in China,as soybean imports decrease,insufficient supply of soybeans will affect people’s quality of life.To prevent the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak,China should increase soybean stocks and strengthen international cooperation.In the long term,increasing the self-sufficiency rate is a fundamental solution to solving soybean import dependency.The key to increasing soybean cultivation is by making soybean cultivation profitable and by building a sustainable soybean planting chain.