Recent urbanization increases exposure to humid-heat extreme events over populated regions of China

目前对于高温的研究主要侧重于干热,针对湿热的研究相对较少,但它通常会造成更大的社会影响,尤其对人体健康的威胁.已有研究证实,当环境湿球温度超过35℃时,它会破坏人体正常生理代谢,进而威胁人体健康.本研究指出在过去四十年,中国区域日最高湿球温度几乎没有超过35℃,但部分地区日最高湿球温度超过了30℃,主要集中在中国的人口密集区,包括华东,华南和四川盆地等.进一步分析发现,中国区域近期的快速城市化加剧了极端湿热事件的社会影响,城市地区暴露于极端湿热事件的范围的增加速率明显大于其他地区,这也意味着快速城市化使得人口密集区暴露于极端湿热事件的风险明显增加.初步估算指出,自2000年以来,中国区域暴露于极端湿热事件的人口数以每年每天约3100人次的速率显著增加.

Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance in simulating the PDO and its future change

本文基于40个CMIP6模式输出结果,系统评估了模式对历史时期太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的模拟性能,并利用其中17个模式的4种共享社会经济路径情景数据预估了PDO未来可能变化趋势.结果表明,CMIP6模式能够合理再现PDO相关海表温度异常的空间模态,但模式模拟PDO位相演变的能力普遍较弱.多模式集合能够合理再现PDO的50年左右周期,但无法模拟出其20年左右周期,并且低估了PDO的变化幅度.在未来变暖情景下,PDO可能在2050左右出现由负位相向正位相的转变,同时其50年左右周期也将明显缩短.

More extreme-heat occurrences related to humidity in China

极端日夜复合高温往往会造成更为严重的社会经济影响及健康风险,受到了广泛关注。本文基于ERA5逐小时资料,针对中国区域极端日夜复合湿热和高温事件的变化及其影响进行了比较分析.结果指出,中国区域夏季极端湿热和高温在空间分布上较为一致,强度高值区主要分布在南方地区,但高频中心主要出现在北方地区.两类事件发生频次在全国范围内均呈明显增加趋势,尤其在西部和北部地区.进一步研究表明,在中国大部分地区,湿度异常在极端湿热事件变化中有着十分重要的作用,部分区域甚至超过温度异常的影响。随着极端湿热事件的增加其影响也在加剧,自1961年以来中国暴露于极端湿热事件的人口数量和城市面积增速明显大于高温事件.

Future changes in daily snowfall events over China based on CMIP6 models

China has been frequently affected by severe snowstorms in recent years that have particularly large economic and human impacts.It is thus of great importance to increase our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of and future changes in snowfall occurrences over China.In this study,the effects of anthropogenic influences on snowfall and the associated future changes are explored using new simulations from CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)models.Observational evidence reveals a decrease in the annual total snowfall days and an increase in intense snowfall days over the snowfall-dominated regions in China during recent decades.Fingerprints of anthropogenic influences on these changes are detectable,especially the impacts of increased greenhouse gas emissions.During the winter seasons,low temperatures still cover the regions of northern China,and the associated precipitation days show an increase due to anthropogenic warming,which substantially benefits the occurrence of snowfall over these regions,particularly for intense snowfall events.This is also true in the future,despite rapid warming being projected.By the end of this century,approximately 23%of grids centered over northern China are projected to still experience an increase in daily intense snowfall events in winters.Additionally,the length of the snowfall season is projected to narrow by nearly 41 days compared to the current climate.Thus,in the future,regions of China,especially northern China,are likely to experience more intense snowfall days over a more concentrated period of time during the winter seasons.

The 2022 report of synergetic roadmap on carbon neutrality and clean air for China:Accelerating transition in key sectors

China is now confronting the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate change.Given the high synergies between air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation,the Chinese government is actively promoting synergetic control of these two issues.The Synergetic Roadmap project was launched in 2021 to track and analyze the progress of synergetic control in China by developing and monitoring key indicators.The Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report is the first annual update,featuring 20 indicators across five aspects:synergetic governance system and practices,progress in structural transition,air pollution and associated weather-climate interactions,sources,sinks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,and health impacts and benefits of coordinated control.Compared to the comprehensive review presented in the 2021 report,the Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report places particular emphasis on progress in 2021 with highlights on actions in key sectors and the relevant milestones.These milestones include the proportion of non-fossil power generation capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time,a decline in the production of crude steel and cement after years of growth,and the surging penetration of electric vehicles.Additionally,in 2022,China issued the first national policy that synergizes abatements of pollution and carbon emissions,marking a new era for China's pollution-carbon co-control.These changes highlight China's efforts to reshape its energy,economic,and transportation structures to meet the demand for synergetic control and sustainable development.Consequently,the country has witnessed a slowdown in carbon emission growth,improved air quality,and increased health benefits in recent years.

Synergetic roadmap of carbon neutrality and clean air for China

It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction,air quality improvement,and improved health.In the context of carbon peak,carbon neutrality,and clean air policies,this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators.The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects:air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions,progress in structural transition,sources,inks,and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition,health impacts and benefits of coordinated control,and synergetic governance system and practices.By tracking the progress in each indicator,this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control,identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance,and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China.

Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating climate extremes

Climate extreme events and their changes can generally exert severe impacts on society and ecosystems and cause large economic losses each year. Robust projections of their future changes are thus urgently important for policymaking to provide reliable information with respect to climate mitigation and adaptation.

The advanced South Asian monsoon onset accelerates lake expansion over the Tibetan Plateau

The rapid expansion of lake area in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has attracted a considerable amount of concern in recent decades.Limited evidence has suggested that climate warming and the cryosphere change are the most prominent contributors to lake expansion.The widespread changes in lake area result from a combination of increased precipitation,melting glaciers,permafrost degradation,and changes in other components of terrestrial water.However,debate remains as to whether melting glaciers or increased precipitation have a greater impact on lake expansion.Varied topography and limited datasets hinder the ability to perform extensive research,and there is currently no definitive conclusion on the issue.

Anthropogenic influence has increased climate extreme occurrence over China

There is overwhelming evidence that anthropogenic activity has exerted a great influence on climate extremes,especially on heat events at continental to global scales[1].Recently,increasing evidence has also identified the anthropogenic influence on climate extremes over China[2-4].

A Comparison of the Effects of Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Loss and ENSO on Winter Haze Days: Observational Analyses and AGCM Simulations

This study compares the impacts of interarmual Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO events on winter haze days m mare- land China through observational analyses and AGCM sensitivity experiments. The results suggest that （1） Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central-eastern China; （2） the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased （reduced） haze days during La Nifia （El Nifio） winters; and （3） the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO are linearly additive. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northem Europe to the Ural Mountains （Urals in brief） and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastem Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over the regions from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribu- tion over Siberia, Mongolia, and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors more frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison, La Nifia （El Nifio） exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic （anticyclonic） lower-tropo- spheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly （southwesterly） anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone （anticyclone） causes reduced （intensified） rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased （reduced） occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect.