全球价值链网络中的“三足鼎立”格局分析

本文基于全球贸易、生产及消费数据测算分析了全球价值链从2000年到2017年的结构演变,我们发现,2000年全球贸易、生产及消费都呈现出以美国为核心的亚太区块和以德国为核心的欧洲区块的“双极结构”。而到2017年,以美国为核心的亚太区块分裂成以美国为核心的北美区块和以中国为核心的亚洲区块。当前全球价值链网络已呈现出“北美-欧洲-亚洲”的三足鼎立区块格局,美国、德国及中国作为其中的核心节点存在。在此背景下,各区块内、区块间如何实现协作共赢、中国如何发挥对亚洲经济的支撑作用,均是当前值得思考的重要问题。

以“镜像战略”抑制贸易保护:一个政治经济学的分析

"镜像战略"是一国(本国)事前制定的贸易政策规则,承诺如果另外一国(外国)在进口本国某一产品时对本国正常经营的出口行业/企业采取贸易限制措施,那么,本国就对外国以本国为出口市场之一的某行业/企业采取贸易限制措施。例如,本国可以考虑的一个贸易政策规则是:"外国对于‘我’的产品征收多少关税,‘我’对于它向我出口的产品就征收多少关税。"本文通过Grossman and Helpman(1995)的"贸易战"模型,论证了"镜像战略"可能有效抑制贸易保护;揭示了其背后的政治经济学机制。我们得到的具体结论如下:第一,在两国贸易政策博弈中,一国使用"镜像战略"可以降低另外一国在均衡中所制定的进口关税水平。第二,导致贸易限制减少的重要原因是:"镜像战略"引发了对方国内进口和出口两个产业的利益集团在进口贸易政策游说上的政治竞争。第三,"镜像战略"可以提高使用国的社会福利,并可能提高双方的社会福利,造成帕累托改进。

China＇s Opening up after 40 Years： Standing at a Historic Turning Point

This paper comprehensively reviews China＇s openness since 1978 from three aspects： trade, foreign investment and global production sharing. We point out that the economic development of China is now standing at a historic turning point. Specifically, economic changes in China are discassed from four dimensions： （i） from China being a world assembly line to a world manufacturing powerhouse; （ii） from China being a world capital receiver to a world investor; （iii） from China being a world factory to a world market; and （iv） from the situation of ＂made in China＂ to ＂innovated in China.＂ At the same time, the global economic system has also reached a turning point. A ＂North America-Europe-Asia ＂ tri-polar system has formed, in which the USA, Germany and China, respectively, serve as the regional core economies.

Nonlinear Capital Flow Tax: Capital Flow Management and Financial Crisis Prevention in China

How to promote capital account liberalization while preventing financial crises is a challenging task for policymakers. This study proposes a nonlinear (progressive) capital flow tax as a solution. We first demonstrate that the collateral requirement of international borrowing can give rise to multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling financial crises. We then show that the crisis equilibrium characterized by large exchange rate depreciation, capital flight and welfare loss can be eliminated by imposing a nonlinear (progressive) tax scheme on capital outflows with the marginal tax rate increasing with the size of individual capital outflows. The implementation of such a tax scheme in China is also discussed.

A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows

International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too small(the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model)or too large(when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model).To resolve the paradoxes,we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm heterogeneity.In our model,free trade in goods does not imply equal returns to capital across countries.In addition,rich patterns of gross capital flows emerge as a function of financial and property rights institutions.A poor country with an inefficient financial system may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of FDI,resulting in a small net flow.In comparison,a country with a low capital-to-labor ratio but a high risk of expropriation may experience an outflow of financial capital without a compensating inflow of FDI.

National Concentration of High-tech Products:The Second Great Diverqence?

Based on the product-country level trade data from 2004 to 2017,as well as the High-Tech Products Catalog from the US Census Bureau,this paper examines empirically the current phenomenon of"national concentration"in high-tech exports.The results show that the phenomenon of"national concentration"not only exists but also tends to be self-reinforcing.Compared with other products,the exports of high-tech products tend to be concentrated in certain countries,and this concentration trends were further strengthened after the global financial crisis of2008-2009.The national concentration of R&D activities may be one of the important causes of the national concentration of high-tech products.This pattern remains robust when we further use the value-added export data and different definitions of high-tech products.We argue that the phenomenon of"national concentration"of high-tech exports may herald the arrival of the"Second Great Divergence"-the divergence between innovative and manufacturing activities-in the global economy.

The Cosine-Shaped Pattern of Innovations and Technological Advantages： Theory and Evidence

Using data from 24 OECD countries, we find that the relationship between a country＇s R＆D investment and technological advantage in a sector （measured by the country＇s labor productivity of the sector relative to the rest of the world） is non-monotonic. In particular, for countries whose technology levels are much lower or higher than the rest of the world in a sector, their sectoral R＆D investment declines as their advantages in the sector improve; for counties with middle technology levels, the opposite is true. Extending the Eaton and Kortum framework, we develop a static model to theoretically analyze the relationship between R＆D investment and technological advantages. We show that when the research efficiency in a sector is sufficiently elastic with respect to the sectoral technological advantage, a country＇s R＆D investment increases with its technological advantage, and vice versa.