：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The r...：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The results suggest that the mis-management in the economy and banking system, the shifts inthe international conditions and the depth of contagion effects are strongly associated with the presence ofcrises. Some of the results are somewhat different from the other empirical studies based on annual data. Acareful analysis of the probability distributions showed that the results were close to being correct in over90% of the cases.展开更多
基金We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [69874 0 0 4 ]
文摘：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The results suggest that the mis-management in the economy and banking system, the shifts inthe international conditions and the depth of contagion effects are strongly associated with the presence ofcrises. Some of the results are somewhat different from the other empirical studies based on annual data. Acareful analysis of the probability distributions showed that the results were close to being correct in over90% of the cases.
