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一种动态权重的台风集成预报方法 被引量:5
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作者 江应境 高山红 《海岸工程》 2018年第3期1-13,共13页
提出了1种动态权重的台风路径与强度集成预报方法,根据前4个时刻(24h,间隔6h)的预报误差来滑动确定接下来预报所用成员及其权重。设计了3种权重形式(最小误差、绝对偏差与相对偏差),并利用2013—2015年6家气象机构的台风预报数据,对台... 提出了1种动态权重的台风路径与强度集成预报方法,根据前4个时刻(24h,间隔6h)的预报误差来滑动确定接下来预报所用成员及其权重。设计了3种权重形式(最小误差、绝对偏差与相对偏差),并利用2013—2015年6家气象机构的台风预报数据,对台风路径与强度进行了时效为24,48和72h的预报应用检验。结果表明:1)动态权重集成方法在台风路径与强度预报上均有改进,平均预报误差小于单一成员的预报误差。2)路径预报以绝对偏差形式效果最佳,24,48和72h时效的预报误差减小2.4%~40.4%;强度预报以相对偏差形式效果最佳,3个时效的台风最大风速的预报误差减少11.2%~49.9%,而台风中心气压则为11.9%~52.6%。3)相对偏差动态集成预报能有效减小西北太平洋台风在东西方向上的偏差,24和48h均方根误差分别为92.5和146.7km。 展开更多
关键词 集成预报 台风 动态权重 预报误差
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Impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the Pacific Walker circulation with numerical experiments of CGCM
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作者 EN Si-Min ZHANG Shao-Qing +2 位作者 LU Lü jiang ying-jing MA You-Wei 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第6期757-771,共15页
The Pacific Walker circulation(PWC)was weak in the 20th century,but its strength increased in an interdecadal scale in the late 1990s.Previous studies have suggested that it could be caused by the warming of the tropi... The Pacific Walker circulation(PWC)was weak in the 20th century,but its strength increased in an interdecadal scale in the late 1990s.Previous studies have suggested that it could be caused by the warming of the tropical Atlantic Ocean,or induced by the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean.The tropical Atlantic Ocean would not only directly affect the PWC through the equatorial east Pacific to the west,but also produce an indirect effect to the east through the equatorial west Indian Ocean.Using a coupled general circulation model,we designed a series of tropical Atlantic Heating and Heating_Shut experiments with different heating rates,to detect the mechanism of the impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the PWC.Results show that the tropical Atlantic heating weakens the Atlantic Walker circulation but strengthens the PWC.Diagnostics of multiple physical variables with coherent lowereupper troposphere structure show the responses of the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic heating play a critical role in the strengthening of the PWC.The Atlanticelinked atmosphere over the tropical Indian Ocean exerts a significantly positive heat flux onto the ocean there,greatly warming the tropical Indian Ocean,especially on the west part.This produces strong convectively ascending at the equatorial West Indian Ocean,but descending at the East-central Indian Ocean,corresponding to a‘Walker’circulation and an‘antieWalker’circulation situated at the West and East equatorial Indian Ocean respectively.Meanwhile,the convergence(divergence)of the lower(upper)troposphere over the Indo‒Pacific region is also strengthened.In this way,the tropical Atlantic heating is linked to the PWC through the circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean.This study serves as a preliminary step to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic warming on the PWC,more Atlantic heating sensitivity studies with multi-model experiments are required to further reveal the linkage of the Pacific and Atlantic. 展开更多
关键词 Tropical Atlantic warming Pacific Walker circulation Tropical Indian Ocean Model simulation
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