将风电场、光伏发电、生物质发电、储能和燃气轮机及柔性负荷聚合为虚拟电厂(Virtual power plant,VPP).进一步,为刻画风光不确定性风险,分别利用条件风险价值方法(Conditional risk at value,CVaR)构造最小化运营风险目标函数及利用鲁...将风电场、光伏发电、生物质发电、储能和燃气轮机及柔性负荷聚合为虚拟电厂(Virtual power plant,VPP).进一步,为刻画风光不确定性风险,分别利用条件风险价值方法(Conditional risk at value,CVaR)构造最小化运营风险目标函数及利用鲁棒随机优化理论转化含不确定性变量约束条件,并选取最大化运营收益和最小化碳排放总量,构建VPP多目标风险规避优化模型.最后,选取改进IEEE30节点系统进行算例分析,结果表明:1)所提风险规避模型能够兼顾效益、风险和碳排放多方诉求;特别是,当鲁棒系数Γ≤0.85,较小的不确定性会带来较大的风险,表明决策者风险态度会影响VPP调度方案;2)预测误差e较高时,相同的Γ增长幅度会带来更高的CVaR增长幅度,表明较低的预测精度会放大不确定性风险,意味着决策者需通过提升预测精度以降低VPP运营风险;3)META能凸显清洁能源环境友好特性,实现VPP整体的最优均衡运行.综上,所提模型能够为决策制定最优VPP调度策略提供决策支撑.展开更多
Objective:To explore the feasibility of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)in detecting syphilis dry blood spots.Methods:Based on dry blood spot samples,laboratory linear dial,laboratory basic dial,laboratory int...Objective:To explore the feasibility of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)in detecting syphilis dry blood spots.Methods:Based on dry blood spot samples,laboratory linear dial,laboratory basic dial,laboratory interference dial,and laboratory precision dial were constructed.The linear range,sensitivity,specificity,precision and other performances of ELISA for detecting syphilis dry blood spot samples were comprehensively evaluated,and the stability of dry blood spot samples at 37℃was detected.In addition,112 suspected syphilis antibody-positive plasma samples were selected as the control,and dry blood spot samples were prepared accordingly.The clinical sensitivity,clinical specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of dry blood spot samples and plasma samples in ELISA for syphilis detection were compared,and the consistency and correlation between the two samples were analyzed by the Kappa consistency test and Spearman rank correlation analysis.Results:The results of the linear analysis showed that the serial dilution of dry blood spot samples in ELISA for syphilis antibody ranged from 23to 27,and there was a good linear range[R2=0.9862(P<0.05)].Sensitivity and specificity analysis showed that the positive coincidence rate and negative coincidence rate of the two detection methods were 100%(15/15).The results of the interference dial test showed that ELISA based on dry blood spot samples could accurately detect 6 syphilis antibody samples from 18samples,and the detection accuracy rate was 100.00%(6/6).The results of the precision test showed that the RSD of syphilis antibody detection in dry blood spot samples with different dilution times(23,25and 27)was 0.24%to 3.87%between spots,0.06%to4.07%between batches and 0.49%to 3.88%between days.Within 7 days,the inter-day RSD of dry blood spots with different dilution times(23,25,27)were 0.27%,0.65%and 0.95%,respectively.The clinical sensitivity,clinical specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of dry blood spot samples in ELISA detection of syphilis antibody were 96.00%(72/75),100.00%(37/37),100.00%(72/72)and 92.50%,respectively.The results of the Kappa consistency test and Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that the Kappa value of the two methods was 0.941(P<0.01),and the correlation coefficientρbetween the S/CO ratios of the two methods was 0.211(P<0.01).The comparison of S/CO ratio results showed that the distribution characteristics of the S/CO ratio between the two methods were similar,and the ratio distribution was relatively concentrated.Conclusion:using dry blood spot samples to perform ELISA for syphilis detection has good precision,strong anti-interference ability and excellent stability.Although false-positive results appear in weak positive samples,it still has a high application value in ELISA for syphilis antibody detection,which can provide an important reference for disease diagnosis.展开更多
文摘将风电场、光伏发电、生物质发电、储能和燃气轮机及柔性负荷聚合为虚拟电厂(Virtual power plant,VPP).进一步,为刻画风光不确定性风险,分别利用条件风险价值方法(Conditional risk at value,CVaR)构造最小化运营风险目标函数及利用鲁棒随机优化理论转化含不确定性变量约束条件,并选取最大化运营收益和最小化碳排放总量,构建VPP多目标风险规避优化模型.最后,选取改进IEEE30节点系统进行算例分析,结果表明:1)所提风险规避模型能够兼顾效益、风险和碳排放多方诉求;特别是,当鲁棒系数Γ≤0.85,较小的不确定性会带来较大的风险,表明决策者风险态度会影响VPP调度方案;2)预测误差e较高时,相同的Γ增长幅度会带来更高的CVaR增长幅度,表明较低的预测精度会放大不确定性风险,意味着决策者需通过提升预测精度以降低VPP运营风险;3)META能凸显清洁能源环境友好特性,实现VPP整体的最优均衡运行.综上,所提模型能够为决策制定最优VPP调度策略提供决策支撑.
文摘Objective:To explore the feasibility of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)in detecting syphilis dry blood spots.Methods:Based on dry blood spot samples,laboratory linear dial,laboratory basic dial,laboratory interference dial,and laboratory precision dial were constructed.The linear range,sensitivity,specificity,precision and other performances of ELISA for detecting syphilis dry blood spot samples were comprehensively evaluated,and the stability of dry blood spot samples at 37℃was detected.In addition,112 suspected syphilis antibody-positive plasma samples were selected as the control,and dry blood spot samples were prepared accordingly.The clinical sensitivity,clinical specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of dry blood spot samples and plasma samples in ELISA for syphilis detection were compared,and the consistency and correlation between the two samples were analyzed by the Kappa consistency test and Spearman rank correlation analysis.Results:The results of the linear analysis showed that the serial dilution of dry blood spot samples in ELISA for syphilis antibody ranged from 23to 27,and there was a good linear range[R2=0.9862(P<0.05)].Sensitivity and specificity analysis showed that the positive coincidence rate and negative coincidence rate of the two detection methods were 100%(15/15).The results of the interference dial test showed that ELISA based on dry blood spot samples could accurately detect 6 syphilis antibody samples from 18samples,and the detection accuracy rate was 100.00%(6/6).The results of the precision test showed that the RSD of syphilis antibody detection in dry blood spot samples with different dilution times(23,25and 27)was 0.24%to 3.87%between spots,0.06%to4.07%between batches and 0.49%to 3.88%between days.Within 7 days,the inter-day RSD of dry blood spots with different dilution times(23,25,27)were 0.27%,0.65%and 0.95%,respectively.The clinical sensitivity,clinical specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of dry blood spot samples in ELISA detection of syphilis antibody were 96.00%(72/75),100.00%(37/37),100.00%(72/72)and 92.50%,respectively.The results of the Kappa consistency test and Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that the Kappa value of the two methods was 0.941(P<0.01),and the correlation coefficientρbetween the S/CO ratios of the two methods was 0.211(P<0.01).The comparison of S/CO ratio results showed that the distribution characteristics of the S/CO ratio between the two methods were similar,and the ratio distribution was relatively concentrated.Conclusion:using dry blood spot samples to perform ELISA for syphilis detection has good precision,strong anti-interference ability and excellent stability.Although false-positive results appear in weak positive samples,it still has a high application value in ELISA for syphilis antibody detection,which can provide an important reference for disease diagnosis.