A note on the estimation of variance for big BAF sampling

Background:The double sampling method known as“big BAF sampling”has been advocated as a way to reduce sampling effort while still maintaining a reasonably precise estimate of volume.A well-known method for variance determination,Bruce’s method,is customarily used because the volume estimator takes the form of a product of random variables.However,the genesis of Bruce’s method is not known to most foresters who use the method in practice.Methods:We establish that the Taylor series approximation known as the Delta method provides a plausible explanation for the origins of Bruce’s method.Simulations were conducted on two different tree populations to ascertain the similarities of the Delta method to the exact variance of a product.Additionally,two alternative estimators for the variance of individual tree volume-basal area ratios,which are part of the estimation process,were compared within the overall variance estimation procedure.Results:The simulation results demonstrate that Bruce’s method provides a robust method for estimating the variance of inventories conducted with the big BAF method.The simulations also demonstrate that the variance of the mean volume-basal area ratios can be computed using either the usual sample variance of the mean or the ratio variance estimators with equal accuracy,which had not been shown previously for Big BAF sampling.Conclusions:A plausible explanation for the origins of Bruce’s method has been set forth both historically and mathematically in the Delta Method.In most settings,there is evidently no practical difference between applying the exact variance of a product or the Delta method—either can be used.A caution is articulated concerning the aggregation of tree-wise attributes into point-wise summaries in order to test the correlation between the two as a possible indicator of the need for further covariance augmentation.

The Chapman-Richards Distribution and its Relationship to the Generalized Beta

Background: The Chapman-Richards distribution is developed as a special case of the equilibrium solution to the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. The Chapman-Richards distribution incorporates the vital rate assumptions of the Chapman-Richards growth function, constant mortality and recruitment into the mathematical form of the distribution. Therefore, unlike 'assumed' distribution models, it is intrinsically linked with the underlying vital rates for the forest area under consideration. Methods: It is shown that the Chapman-Richards distribution can be recast as a subset of the generalized beta distribution of the first kind, a rich family of assumed probability distribution models with known properties. These known properties for the generalized beta are then immediately available for the Chapman-Richards distribution, such as the form of the compatible basal area-size distribution. A simple two-stage procedure is proposed for the estimation of the model parameters and simulation experiments are conducted to validate the procedure for four different possible distribution shapes. Results: The simulations explore the efficacy of the two-stage estimation procedure;these cover the estimation of the growth equation and mortality-recruitment derives from the equilibrium assumption. The parameter estimates are shown to depend on both the sample size and the amount of noise imparted to the synthetic measurements. The results vary somewhat by distribution shape, with the smaller, noisier samples providing less reliable estimates of the vital rates and final distribution forms. Conclusions: The Chapman-Richards distribution in its original form, or recast as a generalized beta form, presents a potentially useful model integrating vital rates and stand diameters into a flexible family of resultant distributions shapes. The data requirements are modest, and parameter estimation is straightforward provided the minimal recommended sample sizes are obtained.

An approximate point-based alternative for the estimation of variance under big BAF sampling

Background:A new variance estimator is derived and tested for big BAF(Basal Area Factor)sampling which is a forest inventory system that utilizes Bitterlich sampling(point sampling)with two BAF sizes,a small BAF for tree counts and a larger BAF on which tree measurements are made usually including DBHs and heights needed for volume estimation.Methods:The new estimator is derived using the Delta method from an existing formulation of the big BAF estimator as consisting of three sample means.The new formula is compared to existing big BAF estimators including a popular estimator based on Bruce’s formula.Results:Several computer simulation studies were conducted comparing the new variance estimator to all known variance estimators for big BAF currently in the forest inventory literature.In simulations the new estimator performed well and comparably to existing variance formulas.Conclusions:A possible advantage of the new estimator is that it does not require the assumption of negligible correlation between basal area counts on the small BAF factor and volume-basal area ratios based on the large BAF factor selection trees,an assumption required by all previous big BAF variance estimation formulas.Although this correlation was negligible on the simulation stands used in this study,it is conceivable that the correlation could be significant in some forest types,such as those in which the DBH-height relationship can be affected substantially by density perhaps through competition.We derived a formula that can be used to estimate the covariance between estimates of mean basal area and the ratio of estimates of mean volume and mean basal area.We also mathematically derived expressions for bias in the big BAF estimator that can be used to show the bias approaches zero in large samples on the order of 1n where n is the number of sample points.