Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characterist...Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure's dynamic relationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and water conservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproduction and uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future patterns of China's urban water infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policy scenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights into China's sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 70073040
文摘Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure's dynamic relationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and water conservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproduction and uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future patterns of China's urban water infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policy scenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights into China's sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.
