Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

A U.S.‒China coal power transition and the global 1.5℃ pathway

As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action.After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy,these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action.In this context,a feasible,high-impact,and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S.and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort.We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5℃ target.Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5℃-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S.coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants,raising important questions of how to compare broader economic,employment,and social impacts.We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions,lowering overall global energy-related CO_(2) emissions by about 9%in 2030 relative to 2020.A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2045.