Nomograms predicting long-term survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A population-based study

BACKGROUND There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.AIM To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survival outcome of patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.METHODS Data of 1219 patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms after resection were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database,and randomly divided into the training(n=853)and the validation(n=366)cohorts.Based on the Cox regression model,nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for an individual patient.The performance of the nomograms was measured according to discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility.Moreover,we compared the predictive accuracy of the nomograms with that of the traditional staging system.RESULTS In the training cohort,age,marital status,histological type,T stage,N stage,M stage,and chemotherapy were selected to construct nomograms.Compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th staging system,the nomograms were generally more discriminative.The nomograms passed the calibration steps by showing high consistency between actual probability and nomogram prediction.Categorial net classification improvements and integrated discrimination improvements suggested that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms exceeded that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.With respect to decision curve analyses,the nomograms exhibited more preferable net benefit gains than the staging system across a wide range of threshold probabilities.CONCLUSION The nomograms show improved predictive accuracy,discrimination capability,and clinical utility,which can be used as reliable tools for risk classification and treatment recommendations.

Limitations in activities of daily living increase the risk of stroke in older Chinese adults:a population-based longitudinal study

It remains unclear whether limitations in activities of daily living(ADL) increase the risk of stroke in older Chinese adults.This longitudinal study used data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey to investigate the effects of limitations in ADL on the incidence of stroke in older adults.Between 2002 and 2011,46,728 participants from 22 provinces in China were included in this study.Of participants,11,241 developed limitations in ADL at baseline.A 3-year follow-up was performed to determine the incidence of stroke.During the 3-year follow-up,929 participants(8.26%) and 2434 participants(6.86%) experienced stroke in the ADL limitations group and non-ADL limitations group,respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of ADL limitations on the risk of stroke.The results showed that after adjusting for the confounding factors gender,age,weight,hypertension,diabetes,heart disease,natural teeth,hearing impairment,visual impairment,smoking,alcohol abuse,exercise,ethnicity,literacy,residential area,and poverty,the ADL limitations group had a 77% higher risk of developing stroke than the non-ADL limitations group.After propensity score matching,the ADL limitations group still had a 33% higher risk of developing stroke than the non-ADL limitations group(OR = 1.326,95% CI:1.174–1.497).These findings suggest that limitations in ADL are a stroke risk factor.