Housing Boom,Dutch Disease,and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports

Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels:resource movement effect and spending effect.Specifically,this paper found that:(i)the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry(resource movement efect)and caused higher inflation(spending effect);(ii)the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports,especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008;(ii)the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous,and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses,businesses that were foreign owned,less R&D intensive,or located in the central and western regions.

The Belt and Road Initiative and China's Export:A Soft Power Perspective

Using a newly built soft power index,we examine whether and how soft power affects Chinese firm-level export to the Belt and Road(B&R)countries from 2000 to 2016.We find that soft power has significantly positive effects on both export value and export product types for the B&R countries.These effects are more pronounced than those for non-B&R countries and differ not only between the"Belt"and the"Road"countries but also regional groups,firm ownerships,modes of trade,and sectors.Further analysis shows that soft power increases the intensive margin of exports by approximately three times that of the extensive margin.Thus,our findings provide a new perspective for understanding both the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the contemporary economic evolution occurring in China.