近年来,我国安全应急产业呈现突飞猛进的发展态势,产业需求日益增长,但尚缺少针对化工安全与应急产业发展态势的研究与政策支持分析。使用系统动力学模型,模拟了江苏省化工安全与应急产业2015—2030年的发展趋势。通过分析四个子系统之...近年来,我国安全应急产业呈现突飞猛进的发展态势,产业需求日益增长,但尚缺少针对化工安全与应急产业发展态势的研究与政策支持分析。使用系统动力学模型,模拟了江苏省化工安全与应急产业2015—2030年的发展趋势。通过分析四个子系统之间的相互作用和反馈循环,揭示了企业数量、研究与发展(Research and Development,R&D)资金、市场需求和第二、三产业产值占比对产业集聚的影响。结果表明:随着企业数量增加,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度增大;R&D资金的增多及市场需求的增加均有助于促进化工安全与应急产业集聚;第三产业产值占GDP的比例较高时,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度也较高。这一研究不仅有望为政府决策提供参考依据,提高化工安全与应急产业的管理水平,还能为建设安全及可持续发展的化工产业体系提供指导。展开更多
联合压力板仪和蒸汽平衡法在全吸力范围内对原状与重塑黄土进行持水特性试验,使用非饱和三轴仪对高吸力下的原状与重塑黄土进行剪切试验,同时采用扫描电镜仪(scanning electron microscope,SEM)和压汞仪(mercury injection apparatus,M...联合压力板仪和蒸汽平衡法在全吸力范围内对原状与重塑黄土进行持水特性试验,使用非饱和三轴仪对高吸力下的原状与重塑黄土进行剪切试验,同时采用扫描电镜仪(scanning electron microscope,SEM)和压汞仪(mercury injection apparatus,MIP)进行微观试验,探讨了非饱和黄土结构性差异对其水力力学特性的影响。试验结果表明:随着吸力的增大,原状和重塑土的饱和度、含水率均减小,孔隙比稍有减小。由于原状及重塑黄土的初始孔隙比基本一致,因此两者压汞试验总进汞量接近。由扫描电镜和压汞试验得到的原状及重塑黄土的孔隙结构形态及优势孔径范围不一样,结构性有所差异,导致土-水特征曲线在不同吸力范围内呈现不一样的规律。原状和重塑土的应力-应变关系多呈软化现象,吸力为3.29 MPa的重塑土呈硬化现象。且随着吸力的增大,原状和重塑土的黏聚力和峰值强度均明显增加,体变由剪缩趋向剪胀现象。由于原状土具备一定结构性,胶结作用较强,其黏聚力的增幅会大于重塑土,峰值强度也高于重塑土,而两者的内摩擦角基本一致。展开更多
In this study, discharge at the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of the Zhujiang River, was simulated and projected from 1961 to 2099 using the hydrological model HBV-D. The model uses precipitation and ...In this study, discharge at the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of the Zhujiang River, was simulated and projected from 1961 to 2099 using the hydrological model HBV-D. The model uses precipitation and temperature data from CISRO/MK3 5, MPI/ECHAM5, and NCAR/CCSM3 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1). The results in water resources and flood frequency suggest that annual precipitation and annual runoff would increase after 2050 relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. In addition, increasing trends have been projected in area averaged monthly precipitation and runoff from May to October, while decreasing trends in those from December to February. More often and larger floods would occur in future. Potential increase in runoff during the low-flow season could ease the pressure of water demand until 2030, but the increase in runoff in the high-flow season, with more often and larger floods, more pressure on flood control after 2050 is expected.展开更多
文摘近年来,我国安全应急产业呈现突飞猛进的发展态势,产业需求日益增长,但尚缺少针对化工安全与应急产业发展态势的研究与政策支持分析。使用系统动力学模型,模拟了江苏省化工安全与应急产业2015—2030年的发展趋势。通过分析四个子系统之间的相互作用和反馈循环,揭示了企业数量、研究与发展(Research and Development,R&D)资金、市场需求和第二、三产业产值占比对产业集聚的影响。结果表明:随着企业数量增加,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度增大;R&D资金的增多及市场需求的增加均有助于促进化工安全与应急产业集聚;第三产业产值占GDP的比例较高时,化工安全与应急产业集聚程度也较高。这一研究不仅有望为政府决策提供参考依据,提高化工安全与应急产业的管理水平,还能为建设安全及可持续发展的化工产业体系提供指导。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB428401)
文摘In this study, discharge at the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of the Zhujiang River, was simulated and projected from 1961 to 2099 using the hydrological model HBV-D. The model uses precipitation and temperature data from CISRO/MK3 5, MPI/ECHAM5, and NCAR/CCSM3 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1). The results in water resources and flood frequency suggest that annual precipitation and annual runoff would increase after 2050 relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. In addition, increasing trends have been projected in area averaged monthly precipitation and runoff from May to October, while decreasing trends in those from December to February. More often and larger floods would occur in future. Potential increase in runoff during the low-flow season could ease the pressure of water demand until 2030, but the increase in runoff in the high-flow season, with more often and larger floods, more pressure on flood control after 2050 is expected.
