Circulation Background and Genesis Mechanism of a Cold Vortex over the Tibetan Plateau during Late April 2018

A cold vortex occurred over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau(TP)on 27 April 2018 and subsequently brought excessive rainfall to the spring farming area in southern China when moving eastward.This study investigates the genesis mechanism of the cold TP vortex(TPV)by diagnosing reanalysis data and conducting numerical experiments.Results demonstrate that the cold TPV was generated in a highly baroclinic environment with significant contributions of positive potential vorticity(PV)forcing from the tropopause and diurnal thermodynamic impact from the surface.As a positive PV anomaly in the lower stratosphere moved towards the TP,the PV forcing at the tropopause pushed the tropospheric isentropic surfaces upward,forming isentropic-isplacement ascent and reducing static stability over the TP.The descent of the tropopause over the TP also produced a tropopause folding over the northeastern TP associated with a narrow high-PV column intruding downwards over the TPV genesis site,resulting in ascending air in the free atmosphere.This,in conjunction with the descending air in the valley area during the night,produced air stretching just at the TPV genesis site.Because the surface cooling at night increased the surface static stability,the aforementioned vertical air-stretching thus converted the produced static stability to vertical vorticity.Consequently,the cold TPV was generated over the valley at night.

The Tibetan Plateau bridge:Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发.5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构,为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应,夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关,高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用.另一方面,这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中,以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

Synergistic Effect of the Planetary-scale Disturbance, Typhoon and Meso-β-scale Convective Vortex on the Extremely Intense Rainstorm on 20 July 2021 in Zhengzhou

On 20 July 2021,northern Henan Province in China experienced catastrophic flooding as a result of an extremely intense rainstorm,with a record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm during 0800–0900 UTC and daily accumulated rainfall in Zhengzhou City exceeding 600 mm(“Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm”for short).The multi-scale dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms for this rainstorm are investigated based on station-observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets.The backward trajectory tracking shows that the warm,moist air from the northwestern Pacific was mainly transported toward Henan Province by confluent southeasterlies on the northern side of a strong typhoon In-Fa(2021),with the convergent southerlies associated with a weaker typhoon Cempaka(2021)concurrently transporting moisture northward from South China Sea,supporting the rainstorm.In the upper troposphere,two equatorward-intruding potential vorticity(PV)streamers within the planetary-scale wave train were located over northern Henan Province,forming significant divergent flow aloft to induce stronger ascending motion locally.Moreover,the converged moist air was also blocked by the mountains in western Henan Province and forced to rise so that a deep meso-β-scale convective vortex(MβCV)was induced over the west of Zhengzhou City.The PV budget analyses demonstrate that the MβCV development was attributed to the positive feedback between the rainfall-related diabatic heating and high-PV under the strong upward PV advection during the Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm.Importantly,the MβCV was forced by upper-level larger-scale westerlies becoming eastward-sloping,which allowed the mixtures of abundant raindrops and hydrometeors to ascend slantwise and accumulate just over Zhengzhou City,resulting in the record-breaking hourly rainfall locally.

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model,we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics.Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments:the random perturbation(RP),the bred vector(BV),the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF),and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV)methods.Results show that,regardless of the method used,the ensemble averages behave indistinguishably from the control forecasts during the first few time steps.Due to different error growth in different time-scale systems,the ensemble averages perform better than the control forecast after very short lead times in a fast subsystem but after a relatively long period of time in a slow subsystem.Due to the coupled dynamic processes,the addition of perturbations to fast variables or to slow variables can contribute to an improvement in the forecasting skill for fast variables and slow variables.Regarding the initial perturbation approaches,the NLLVs show higher forecasting skill than the BVs or RPs overall.The NLLVs and ETKFs had nearly equivalent prediction skill,but NLLVs performed best by a narrow margin.In particular,when adding perturbations to slow variables,the independent perturbations(NLLVs and ETKFs)perform much better in ensemble prediction.These results are simply implied in a real coupled air–sea model.For the prediction of oceanic variables,using independent perturbations(NLLVs)and adding perturbations to oceanic variables are expected to result in better performance in the ensemble prediction.

Factors responsible for the increasing trend of mei-yu season rainfall during 1979-2020 over the western and eastern mei-yu domain

近几十年来,江淮流域梅雨监测区(MMD)的梅雨期(6-7月)降水呈增加趋势.本文基于1979-2020年台站观测降水资料和ERA5再分析数据,从大气环流变异的角度揭示了这种长期增加趋势的主要影响因素.发现在MMD范围内,梅雨期降水趋势的增幅东部大于西部.水汽收支定量诊断表明,异常的蒸发和水汽平流对MMD西部和东部降水增加趋势的相对贡献是不同的.MMD西部(东部)的降水趋势主要归咎于增强的局地蒸发(增强的垂直水汽平流),后者又取决于MMD对流层中,低层的异常气旋环流.这种位于气候平均的西太平洋副热带高压西北侧的异常气旋有助于MMD东部600 hPa以上的水汽辐散增加,伴随加强的850 hPa水汽辐合,从而导致垂直水汽平流的增强.相反,该异常气旋则有利于增强MMD西部的局地蒸发.

PV Perspective of Impacts on Downstream Extreme Rainfall Event of a Tibetan Plateau Vortex Collaborating with a Southwest China Vortex

An extreme rainfall event occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Basin(MLY)during the end of June 2016,which was attributable to a Tibetan Plateau(TP)Vortex(TPV)in conjunction with a Southwest China Vortex(SWCV).The physical mechanism for this event was investigated from Potential Vorticity(PV)and omega perspectives based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data.The cyclogenesis of the TPV over the northwestern TP along with the lower-tropospheric SWCV was found to involve a midtropospheric large-scale flow reconfiguration across western and eastern China with the formation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave.Subsequently,the eastward-moving TPV coalesced vertically with the SWCV over the eastern Sichuan Basin due to the positive vertical gradient of the TPV-related PV advection,leading the lower-tropospheric jet associated with moisture transport to intensify greatly and converge over the downstream MLY.The merged TPV−SWCV specially facilitated the upper-tropospheric isentropic-gliding ascending motion over the MLY.With the TPV-embedded mid-tropospheric trough migrating continuously eastward,the almost stagnant SWCV was re-separated from the overlying TPV,forming a more eastward-tilted high-PV configuration to trigger stronger ascending motion including isentropic-gliding,isentropic-displacement,and diabatic heating-related ascending components over the MLY.This led to more intense rainfall.Quantitative PV diagnoses demonstrate that both the coalescence and subsequent re-separation processes of the TPV with the SWCV were largely dominated by horizontal PV advection and PV generation due to vertically nonuniform diabatic heating,as well as the feedback of condensation latent heating on the isentropic-displacement vertical velocity.

Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Ni-o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900-2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Ni-o (La Ni-a) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO-BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Ni-o (La Ni-a) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Ni-o-related (La Ni-a-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets.

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea during May–September

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the South China Sea（SCS） on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer（May-September）. TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive（negative） SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies（southwesterlies）. The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux（MNHF） contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

A Timescale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression （TSDTR） downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall （SCESR） is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR. The two models are developed based on the partial least squares （PLS） regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915-84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985-2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach, considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.

Potential vorticity analysis of quasi-biweekly rainfall events over the Yangtze Basin in summer 2014

A series of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in summer 2014,which were modulated by the 10-20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO).Thus,the strongest QBWO cycle for the period 10-24 July was used as a representative case to reveal the dynamical mechanism for the QBWO of the YRV rainfall from the potential vorticity(PV)perspective and based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data.The quasi-biweekly YRV rainfall was found to depend closely on the QBWO of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high(SAH),with the SAH configuration modified by the southward-intruding midlatitude high PV stream along with southwestward-advected high PV,altering the divergent condition over the YRV.Quantitative diagnoses for the anomalous vertical motion demonstrated that,in the wet phase of the QBWO cycle,the upper-tropospheric southward-intruding high PV stream acted as a positive PV advection,while negative PV advection was generated due to the lower-tropospheric southerlies,thereby forming a positive vertical gradient of horizontal PV advection to induce evident isentropic-displacement ascending motion.On the other hand,the southward-intruding high PV stream extended downward to the middle troposphere,causing the isentropic surfaces to become more sloping,thus producing a strong isentropic-gliding ascending component.Subsequently,the stronger diabatic heating-related ascending motion was induced to generate positive rainfall anomalies over the YRV.The opposite situation arose in the dry phase,with weak descending motion in magnitude.

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation over the Asian monsoon region as revealed by TRMM satellite data

Climatological characteristics of diurnal variations in summer precipitation over the Asian monsoon region are comprehensively investigated based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite data during 1998-2008.The topographic influence on the diurnal variations and phase propagations of maximum precipitation are identified according to spatiotemporal distributions of the amplitude and peak time of the diurnal precipitation.The amplitude and phase of diurnal precipitation show a distinct geographical pattern.Significant diurnal variations occur over most of continental and coastal areas including the Maritime Continent,with the relative amplitude exceeding 40%,indicating that the precipitation peak is 1.4 times the 24-h mean.Over the landside coasts such as southeastern China and Indochina Peninsula,the relative amplitude is even greater than 100%.Although the diurnal variations of summer precipitation over the continental areas are characterized by an afternoon peak(1500-1800 Local Solar Time(LST)),over the central Indochina Peninsula and central and southern Indian Peninsula the diurnal phase is delayed to after 2100 LST,suggesting the diurnal behaviors over these areas different from the general continental areas.The weak diurnal variations with relative amplitudes less than 40% exist mainly over oceanic areas in the western Pacific and most of Indian Ocean,with the rainfall peak mainly occurring from midnight to early morning(0000-0600 LST),indicating a typical oceanic regime characterized by an early morning peak.However,apparent exceptions occur over the South China Sea(SCS),Bay of Bengal(BOB),and eastern Arabian Sea,with the rainfall peak occurring in daytime(0900-1500 LST).Prominent meridional propagations of the diurnal phase exist in South Asia and East Asia.Along the eastern Indian Peninsula,there is not only the southward phase propagation with the peak occurring around 25°N but also the northward phase propagation with the peak beginning with the southernmost continent,and both reach the central Indian continent to finish.Along the same longitudes where southern China and Kalimantan are located,the diurnal phase of the former propagates from the oceanic area(northern SCS) toward the inland continent,while the phase of the latter propagates from the land area toward the outside sea,showing a landward or seaward coastal diurnal regime.A distinct zonal propagation of the diurnal phase is observed over the BOB oceanic area.The maximum precipitation zone originates from the land-sea boundary of the eastern coast of the Indian peninsula at around 0300 LST,and then propagates eastward with increasing time to reach the eastern coast of the BOB on 1800 LST,finally migrates into the Indochina continent on about 2100 LST.

Interannual Relationship between Summer North Atlantic Oscillation and Subsequent November Precipitation Anomalies over Yunnan in Southwest China

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)strongly affects the climate variability over Europe and downstream East Asia similar to its winter counterpart.This study thus investigates the interannual relationship between SNAO and the subsequent autumn precipitation anomalies over Yunnan,Southwest China and related physical mechanisms based on reanalysis data during 1958–2020.The results show that the interannual variations in SNAO exhibit a significant positive correlation with anomalies of Yunnan precipitation in November.Composite analyses demonstrate that for the positive SNAO phase,the positive sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in midlatitude North Atlantic as part of a tripole SSTA tend to weaken from summer to November through changes in surface heat fluxes.In turn,the predominately negative SSTA in tropical North Atlantic that persists into November induces an anomalous cyclone at midlatitudes,which triggers two middle–upper tropospheric wave trains propagating from midlatitude North Atlantic to Yunnan.The subtropical wave train propagates eastward along the subtropical westerly jet,and the mid–high latitude wave train follows the great circle path across Scandinavia and central Asia to the Tibetan Plateau.Both wave trains favor development of an anomalous cyclone over the southern Tibetan Plateau.The upper-tropospheric divergent condition on the southeastern side of the anomalous cyclone is dynamically conducive to locally ascending motion over Yunnan,thus producing above-normal precipitation.The opposite situation occurs in the negative SNAO phase.A coupled model reproduces well the wave train propagation and thereby confirms the positive relationship between SNAO and Yunnan precipitation in November.