Thunderstorms are very spectacular super-long-range discharge processes in the atmosphere, which can cause tremendous damage in an instant, often leading to casualties, resulting in damage to buildings, power supply s...Thunderstorms are very spectacular super-long-range discharge processes in the atmosphere, which can cause tremendous damage in an instant, often leading to casualties, resulting in damage to buildings, power supply systems, communication equipment and forest fires, causing major economic losses. In order to successfully predict thunderstorms, and many economic losses can be avoided. Using the observation data of two county stations in Yimeng County and Zhangwu County from June to August 2009-2015, 40 typical thunderstorm weather processes were selected, and 15 convective parameters related to thunderstorm activities were calculated. After statistical analysis, there are seven convective parameters with significant correlation with thunderstorm activity: convective affective potential energy (CAPE), 850 hPa specific humidity, 700 hPa specific humidity, 850 hPa false equivalent temperature, maximum rising speed, strong weather threat index (SWEAT) and zero degree height (ZH), and the correlation is greater than 0.3. We determined the forecast threshold of the above forecasting factors, calculated the fitting rate and conducted a test report. We used the pup product to establish a short-term proximity indicator for thunderstorm warning. Three products with combined reflectivity, vertical integrated liquid water content and echo top height were selected as warning indicators for thunderstorms. The above research results were used to forecast the thunderstorm weather from June to August in the year of 2015 and 2016. The forecast accuracy rate is more than 85%. In summary, the above methods have reference value and indicative significance for the forecast and warning of thunderstorm weather in Fuxin City, China.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation data in Fuxin from 1951 to 2019,the M-K and Pettitt mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,CWT,XWT and WTC methods were used to study the correlation between precipitation and sunspot...Based on the monthly precipitation data in Fuxin from 1951 to 2019,the M-K and Pettitt mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,CWT,XWT and WTC methods were used to study the correlation between precipitation and sunspots in Fuxin in the past 69 years.The results show that from 1951 to 2019,only the spring precipitation in Fuxin showed an upward trend,and annual precipitation,the precipitation in the other three seasons and the annual number of sunspots all showed a relatively obvious downward trend.The first main cycles of annual precipitation,the annual number of sunspots,spring,summer,autumn and winter precipitation were quasi-28,quasi-16,quasi-51,quasi-51,quasi-27 and quasi-11 years,respectively.Annual precipitation,the annual number of sunspots,spring,summer,autumn and winter precipitation changed suddenly in 1980,2005,2005,1980,1992 and 1980,respectively.Both annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation had a relatively obvious resonance cycle of 5-15 years with sunspots,indicating that there was a good correlation between the annual number of sunspots and annual precipitation on an interannual scale.展开更多
Based on Cloud Precipitation Analysis System(CPAS),the potential for weather modification during the four types of typical precipitation processes in Fuxin area in 2019 was analyzed,and the model forecast products bef...Based on Cloud Precipitation Analysis System(CPAS),the potential for weather modification during the four types of typical precipitation processes in Fuxin area in 2019 was analyzed,and the model forecast products before weather modification operation and the surface rainfall were compared.展开更多
文摘Thunderstorms are very spectacular super-long-range discharge processes in the atmosphere, which can cause tremendous damage in an instant, often leading to casualties, resulting in damage to buildings, power supply systems, communication equipment and forest fires, causing major economic losses. In order to successfully predict thunderstorms, and many economic losses can be avoided. Using the observation data of two county stations in Yimeng County and Zhangwu County from June to August 2009-2015, 40 typical thunderstorm weather processes were selected, and 15 convective parameters related to thunderstorm activities were calculated. After statistical analysis, there are seven convective parameters with significant correlation with thunderstorm activity: convective affective potential energy (CAPE), 850 hPa specific humidity, 700 hPa specific humidity, 850 hPa false equivalent temperature, maximum rising speed, strong weather threat index (SWEAT) and zero degree height (ZH), and the correlation is greater than 0.3. We determined the forecast threshold of the above forecasting factors, calculated the fitting rate and conducted a test report. We used the pup product to establish a short-term proximity indicator for thunderstorm warning. Three products with combined reflectivity, vertical integrated liquid water content and echo top height were selected as warning indicators for thunderstorms. The above research results were used to forecast the thunderstorm weather from June to August in the year of 2015 and 2016. The forecast accuracy rate is more than 85%. In summary, the above methods have reference value and indicative significance for the forecast and warning of thunderstorm weather in Fuxin City, China.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Project of Liaoning Meteorological Bureau in 2022(ZD202208,ZD202257)。
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation data in Fuxin from 1951 to 2019,the M-K and Pettitt mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,CWT,XWT and WTC methods were used to study the correlation between precipitation and sunspots in Fuxin in the past 69 years.The results show that from 1951 to 2019,only the spring precipitation in Fuxin showed an upward trend,and annual precipitation,the precipitation in the other three seasons and the annual number of sunspots all showed a relatively obvious downward trend.The first main cycles of annual precipitation,the annual number of sunspots,spring,summer,autumn and winter precipitation were quasi-28,quasi-16,quasi-51,quasi-51,quasi-27 and quasi-11 years,respectively.Annual precipitation,the annual number of sunspots,spring,summer,autumn and winter precipitation changed suddenly in 1980,2005,2005,1980,1992 and 1980,respectively.Both annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation had a relatively obvious resonance cycle of 5-15 years with sunspots,indicating that there was a good correlation between the annual number of sunspots and annual precipitation on an interannual scale.
基金Supported by the Project of Fuxin Meteorological Bureau(FQX-2020-06).
文摘Based on Cloud Precipitation Analysis System(CPAS),the potential for weather modification during the four types of typical precipitation processes in Fuxin area in 2019 was analyzed,and the model forecast products before weather modification operation and the surface rainfall were compared.
