Simulating potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants based on contact-tracing data:A modelling study in Fujian Province,China

Although studies have compared the relative severity of Omicron and Delta variants by assessing the relative risks,there are still gaps in the knowledge of the potential COVID-19 burden these variations may cause.And the contact patterns in Fujian Province,China,have not been described.We identified 8969 transmission pairs in Fujian,China,by analyzing a contact-tracing database that recorded a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in September 2021.We estimated the waning vaccine effectiveness against Delta variant infection,contact patterns,and epidemiology distributions,then simulated potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants using a multi-group mathematical model.For instance,in the contact setting without stringent lockdowns,we estimated that in a potential Omicron wave,only 4.7%of infections would occur in Fujian Province among individuals aged>60 years.In comparison,58.75%of the death toll would occur in unvaccinated individuals aged>60 years.Compared with no strict lockdowns,combining school or factory closure alone reduced cumulative deaths of Delta and Omicron by 28.5%and 6.1%,respectively.In conclusion,this study validates the need for continuous mass immunization,especially among elderly aged over 60 years old.And it confirms that the effect of lockdowns alone in reducing infections or deaths is minimal.However,these measurements will still contribute to lowering peak daily incidence and delaying the epidemic,easing the healthcare system's burden.

Modelling the Emerging COVID-19 Epidemic and Estimating Intervention Effectiveness—Taiwan,China,2021

Introduction:The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic recently affected Taiwan,China.This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of COVID-19 to predict trends and evaluate the effects of interventions.Methods:The data of reported COVID-19 cases was collected from April 20 to May 26,2021,which included daily reported data(Scenario I)and reported data after adjustment(Scenario II).A susceptibleexposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered model was developed to fit the data.The effective reproductive number(Reff)was used to estimate the transmissibility of COVID-19.Results:A total of 4,854 cases were collected for the modelling.In Scenario I,the intervention has already taken some effects from May 17 to May 26(the Reff reduced to 2.1).When the Reff was set as 0.1,the epidemic was projected to end on July 4,and a total of 1,997 cases and 855 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported.In Scenario II,the interventions were projected as having been effective from May 24 to May 26(the Reff reduced to 0.4).When the Reff was set as 0.1,the epidemic was projected to end on July 1,and a total of 1,482 cases and 635 asymptomatic individuals would have been reported.Conclusion:The epidemic of COVID-19 was projected to end after at least one month,even if the most effective interventions were applied in Taiwan,China.Although there were some positive effects of intervention in Taiwan,China.