The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study sub...The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.展开更多
基金the research project of Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics (number: KZ0072421051).
文摘The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.
