Since March 11th,2020,COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period.This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period...Since March 11th,2020,COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period.This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the‘Diamond Princess’enclosed space incident.The heterogeneity includes two different identities,two transmission methods,two different-size rooms,and six transmission stages.This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures,including closed schools,hospitals,and communities.As the COVID-19 pandemic continues,our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.展开更多
文摘Since March 11th,2020,COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period.This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the‘Diamond Princess’enclosed space incident.The heterogeneity includes two different identities,two transmission methods,two different-size rooms,and six transmission stages.This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures,including closed schools,hospitals,and communities.As the COVID-19 pandemic continues,our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.
