虽然近年来卫星反演降雨产品逐渐成熟,但精度仍较差,不能满足现代水文气象业务和科研的需求,因此需要地面观测资料对其进行订正。文中采用的卫星与地面站融合数据是基于中国3万多个自动站降雨观测数据和CMORPH卫星反演降雨资料,采用PDF(...虽然近年来卫星反演降雨产品逐渐成熟,但精度仍较差,不能满足现代水文气象业务和科研的需求,因此需要地面观测资料对其进行订正。文中采用的卫星与地面站融合数据是基于中国3万多个自动站降雨观测数据和CMORPH卫星反演降雨资料,采用PDF(probability density function)和OI(optimal interpolation)两步融合方法生成的中国区域高时空分辨率(0.1°/1h)的降雨量融合产品。通过在汉江丹江口水库以上流域建立分布式水文模型,对2008~2012年的融合降雨数据进行水文模拟适用性分析。结果表明:在日尺度上,CMORPH卫星降雨与地面站点融合数据具有较好的相关性,但存在一定的系统偏差;该降雨产品能较好地捕捉到强度小于25 mm的中小降雨,其模拟的径流与流域下部高峰流量的观测结果有较好的一致性,但总水量比实测值低15.7%,NSE达0.723。研究成果为基于高时空分辨率的卫星雨量计融合降雨产品在分布式水文模型的水文适用性提供了新的见解和经验,并为该数据在流域洪水模拟的水文预报应用提供参考与借鉴。展开更多
针对强降水业务预报工作的实际需求,利用常规观测站和区域自动站逐小时降水资料及欧洲中心(ECMWF)细网格数值预报产品,采用水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度对2017年7月26—27日发生在青海省的强降水天气过程进行预报应用分析。结果...针对强降水业务预报工作的实际需求,利用常规观测站和区域自动站逐小时降水资料及欧洲中心(ECMWF)细网格数值预报产品,采用水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度对2017年7月26—27日发生在青海省的强降水天气过程进行预报应用分析。结果表明:水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度与降水的发生发展和强降水中心有较好的对应关系;500 h Pa正水平螺旋度强度对降水强度的变化有一定的指示性,负水平螺旋度强度偏强时可以很好地指示强降水中心位置;水汽通量大值区内水汽辐合强度越强,降水强度也越强。展开更多
精准的风速预报是风电功率预测的基础,风场的预报评估是提升风电功率预测水平的有效途径之一。基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(weather research and forecast,WRF),采用风险评分、相关系数及均方根误差等定量分析指标,结合西北电网数值预...精准的风速预报是风电功率预测的基础,风场的预报评估是提升风电功率预测水平的有效途径之一。基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(weather research and forecast,WRF),采用风险评分、相关系数及均方根误差等定量分析指标,结合西北电网数值预报结果,开展6种大气边界层参数化方案的适用性研究。结果表明:YSU(Yonsei University)方案预报的地面纬向风平均相关系数最高为0.87、均方根误差最低仅1.0 m/s,且地面经向风、850 hPa和500 hPa高度场、以及500 hPa风速预报效果均最优,是提升西北电网风场预报的最优边界层方案。本研究为西北电网风场(以及其他气象要素)预报效果的提升指明了方向。展开更多
During mid-January 2011,a rarely seen twin-extratropical-cyclone event appeared over the western North Pacific Ocean.One of the twin cyclones developed into an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone(EEC),which was co...During mid-January 2011,a rarely seen twin-extratropical-cyclone event appeared over the western North Pacific Ocean.One of the twin cyclones developed into an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone(EEC),which was comparable to the intensity of a typhoon.Rotational and divergent wind kinetic energy(KE)analyses were applied to understand the low-level wind’s rapid enhancement associated with the cyclone.It was found that:(i)the total wind KE associated with the EEC showed a remarkable enhancement in the lower troposphere during the cyclone’s maximum development stage,with the maximum/minimum wind acceleration appearing in the southeastern/northwestern quadrant of the EEC;(ii)the rotational wind KE experienced an obvious increase,which corresponded to the total wind KE enhancement,whereas the divergent wind KE,which was much smaller than the rotational wind,mainly featured a decreasing trend;(iii)the rotational wind KE enhancement showed variational features consistent with the horizontal enlargement and upward stretching of the EEC;(iv)the nonorthogonal wind KE enhanced the total wind KE in regions with strong rotational wind,which resulted in the maximum lower-tropospheric maximum wind,whereas in regions with strong divergent wind it mainly reduced the total wind KE;(v)the northward transport of total wind KE and the rotational wind KE production due to the work done by pressure gradient force were dominant factors for the enhancement of winds associated with the EEC,particularly in its southeastern section.In contrast,an overall conversion from rotational wind KE to divergent wind KE decelerated the rotational wind enhancement.展开更多
Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data ...Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data merging research based on the non-Gaussianity of precipitation data. For CMORPH data correction,the probability density function( PDF) matching method is adopted,during which the GAMMA function fitting is utilized,and the generalized variational merging based on non-Gaussian model is used to merge corrected CMORPH precipitation data and station ground observation precipitation data. Meanwhile,we carry out an experiment on CMORPH precipitation data correction and the merging of multisource precipitation data based on non-Gaussian model. By measuring the structural similarity between the merged field and the reference field,we get a merging method that can better retain useful " outliers" which represent weather phenomena. The experimental results accord with our expectations.展开更多
Based on CMORPH precipitation estimates and ERA5 reanalysis data,this study investigates the mechanisms accounting for the repeated occurrence of torrential rainfall over South Thailand in early January 2017,which ind...Based on CMORPH precipitation estimates and ERA5 reanalysis data,this study investigates the mechanisms accounting for the repeated occurrence of torrential rainfall over South Thailand in early January 2017,which induced the strongest floods over Ko Samui and Ko Phangan in the last almost 30 years.It is found that the maintenance of a northeastward-moving mesoscale vortex that formed southwest of the Indochina Peninsula was the direct reason for the series of torrential rainfall events.Analysis of the vorticity budget illustrates that convergence-related horizontal shrinking was the most favorable factor for the maintenance of the vortex.Tilting was the second most favorable factor,whereas horizontal and vertical transport mainly caused a net export of cyclonic vorticity from the vortex’s three-dimensional range,which was detrimental for its maintenance.Further analysis indicates that tilting and vertical vorticity transport were sensitive to the vortex’s displacement and the enhancement of cyclonic vorticity at lower levels around the vortex,respectively,as the two factors showed completely different effects on the persistence of the vortex during two different stages.展开更多
文摘虽然近年来卫星反演降雨产品逐渐成熟,但精度仍较差,不能满足现代水文气象业务和科研的需求,因此需要地面观测资料对其进行订正。文中采用的卫星与地面站融合数据是基于中国3万多个自动站降雨观测数据和CMORPH卫星反演降雨资料,采用PDF(probability density function)和OI(optimal interpolation)两步融合方法生成的中国区域高时空分辨率(0.1°/1h)的降雨量融合产品。通过在汉江丹江口水库以上流域建立分布式水文模型,对2008~2012年的融合降雨数据进行水文模拟适用性分析。结果表明:在日尺度上,CMORPH卫星降雨与地面站点融合数据具有较好的相关性,但存在一定的系统偏差;该降雨产品能较好地捕捉到强度小于25 mm的中小降雨,其模拟的径流与流域下部高峰流量的观测结果有较好的一致性,但总水量比实测值低15.7%,NSE达0.723。研究成果为基于高时空分辨率的卫星雨量计融合降雨产品在分布式水文模型的水文适用性提供了新的见解和经验,并为该数据在流域洪水模拟的水文预报应用提供参考与借鉴。
文摘针对强降水业务预报工作的实际需求,利用常规观测站和区域自动站逐小时降水资料及欧洲中心(ECMWF)细网格数值预报产品,采用水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度对2017年7月26—27日发生在青海省的强降水天气过程进行预报应用分析。结果表明:水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度与降水的发生发展和强降水中心有较好的对应关系;500 h Pa正水平螺旋度强度对降水强度的变化有一定的指示性,负水平螺旋度强度偏强时可以很好地指示强降水中心位置;水汽通量大值区内水汽辐合强度越强,降水强度也越强。
文摘精准的风速预报是风电功率预测的基础,风场的预报评估是提升风电功率预测水平的有效途径之一。基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(weather research and forecast,WRF),采用风险评分、相关系数及均方根误差等定量分析指标,结合西北电网数值预报结果,开展6种大气边界层参数化方案的适用性研究。结果表明:YSU(Yonsei University)方案预报的地面纬向风平均相关系数最高为0.87、均方根误差最低仅1.0 m/s,且地面经向风、850 hPa和500 hPa高度场、以及500 hPa风速预报效果均最优,是提升西北电网风场预报的最优边界层方案。本研究为西北电网风场(以及其他气象要素)预报效果的提升指明了方向。
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China grant number 2018YFC0809400the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant numbers41775046 and 91637211the Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciences。
文摘During mid-January 2011,a rarely seen twin-extratropical-cyclone event appeared over the western North Pacific Ocean.One of the twin cyclones developed into an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone(EEC),which was comparable to the intensity of a typhoon.Rotational and divergent wind kinetic energy(KE)analyses were applied to understand the low-level wind’s rapid enhancement associated with the cyclone.It was found that:(i)the total wind KE associated with the EEC showed a remarkable enhancement in the lower troposphere during the cyclone’s maximum development stage,with the maximum/minimum wind acceleration appearing in the southeastern/northwestern quadrant of the EEC;(ii)the rotational wind KE experienced an obvious increase,which corresponded to the total wind KE enhancement,whereas the divergent wind KE,which was much smaller than the rotational wind,mainly featured a decreasing trend;(iii)the rotational wind KE enhancement showed variational features consistent with the horizontal enlargement and upward stretching of the EEC;(iv)the nonorthogonal wind KE enhanced the total wind KE in regions with strong rotational wind,which resulted in the maximum lower-tropospheric maximum wind,whereas in regions with strong divergent wind it mainly reduced the total wind KE;(v)the northward transport of total wind KE and the rotational wind KE production due to the work done by pressure gradient force were dominant factors for the enhancement of winds associated with the EEC,particularly in its southeastern section.In contrast,an overall conversion from rotational wind KE to divergent wind KE decelerated the rotational wind enhancement.
基金Supported by the Science Technology Foundation of State Grid Corporation of ChinaNatural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(1708085QD89)+1 种基金Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Open Research Fund(HRM201407)Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment of China Meteorological Administration Open Fund Project(2016SYIAE14)
文摘Different from other domestic and foreign research in which the optimum interpolation(OI) merging algorithm is commonly used,this paper constructs the non-Gaussian model for generalized variational precipitation data merging research based on the non-Gaussianity of precipitation data. For CMORPH data correction,the probability density function( PDF) matching method is adopted,during which the GAMMA function fitting is utilized,and the generalized variational merging based on non-Gaussian model is used to merge corrected CMORPH precipitation data and station ground observation precipitation data. Meanwhile,we carry out an experiment on CMORPH precipitation data correction and the merging of multisource precipitation data based on non-Gaussian model. By measuring the structural similarity between the merged field and the reference field,we get a merging method that can better retain useful " outliers" which represent weather phenomena. The experimental results accord with our expectations.
基金This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFC1507400]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41861144015 and 41775046]the Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Based on CMORPH precipitation estimates and ERA5 reanalysis data,this study investigates the mechanisms accounting for the repeated occurrence of torrential rainfall over South Thailand in early January 2017,which induced the strongest floods over Ko Samui and Ko Phangan in the last almost 30 years.It is found that the maintenance of a northeastward-moving mesoscale vortex that formed southwest of the Indochina Peninsula was the direct reason for the series of torrential rainfall events.Analysis of the vorticity budget illustrates that convergence-related horizontal shrinking was the most favorable factor for the maintenance of the vortex.Tilting was the second most favorable factor,whereas horizontal and vertical transport mainly caused a net export of cyclonic vorticity from the vortex’s three-dimensional range,which was detrimental for its maintenance.Further analysis indicates that tilting and vertical vorticity transport were sensitive to the vortex’s displacement and the enhancement of cyclonic vorticity at lower levels around the vortex,respectively,as the two factors showed completely different effects on the persistence of the vortex during two different stages.
