Remaining useful life prediction for engineering systems under dynamic operational conditions: A semi-Markov decision process-based approach

For critical engineering systems such as aircraft and aerospace vehicles, accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction not only means cost saving, but more importantly, is of great significance in ensuring system reliability and preventing disaster. RUL is affected not only by a system's intrinsic deterioration, but also by the operational conditions under which the system is operating. This paper proposes an RUL prediction approach to estimate the mean RUL of a continuously degrading system under dynamic operational conditions and subjected to condition monitoring at short equi-distant intervals. The dynamic nature of the operational conditions is described by a discrete-time Markov chain, and their influences on the degradation signal are quantified by degradation rates and signal jumps in the degradation model. The uniqueness of our proposed approach is formulating the RUL prediction problem in a semi-Markov decision process framework, by which the system mean RUL can be obtained through the solution to a limited number of equations. To extend the use of our proposed approach in real applications, different failure standards according to different operational conditions are also considered. The application and effectiveness of this approach are illustrated by a turbofan engine dataset and a comparison with existing results for the same dataset.

Study on influencing factors and prediction of peak particle velocity induced by roof pre-split blasting in underground

Blasting technology is widely used to prevent coal bursts by presplitting the overburden in underground coal mines.The control of blasting intensity is important in achieving the optimal pre-split effectiveness and reducing the damage to roadway structures that are subjected to blasting vibrations.As a critical parameter to measure the blasting intensity,the peak particle velocity(PPV)of vibration induced by blasting,should be accurately predicted,and can provide a useful guideline for the design of blasting parameters and the evaluation of the damage.In this paper,various factors that influence PPV,induced by roof pre-split blasting,were analyzed using engineering blasting experiments and numerical simulations.The results showed that PPV was affected by many factors,including charge distribution design(total charge and maximum charge per hole),spacing of explosive centers,as well as propagation distance and path.Two parameters,average charge coefficient and spatial discretization coefficient were used to quantitatively characterize the influences of charge distribution and spacing of explosive centers on the PPV induced by roof pre-split blasting.Then,a model consisting of the combination of artificial neural network(ANN)and genetic algorithm(GA)was adopted to predict the PPV that was induced by roof presplit blasting.A total of 24 rounds of roof pre-split blasting experiments were carried out in a coal mine,and vibration signals were collected using a microseismic(MS)monitoring system to construct the neural network datasets.To verify the efficiency of the proposed GA-ANN model,empirical correlations were applied to predict PPV for the same datasets.The results showed that the GA-ANN model had superiority in predicting PPV compared to empirical correlations.Finally,sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impacts of input parameters on PPV.The research results are of great significance to improve the prediction accuracy of PPV induced by roof pre-splitting blasting.

Adsorption,selectivity,and phase behavior in organic nanopores for shale gas and oil development

In a shale gas and oil reservoir,hydrocarbon fluids are stored in organic nanopores with sizes on the order of~1-100 nm.The adsorption,selectivity,and phase behavior of hydrocarbons in the nanopores are crucial for estimating the gas-in-place and predicting the productivity.In this study,to understand the characteristics of the phase behavior of multicomponent hydrocarbon systems in shale reservoirs,the phase behavior of a CH_(4)/n-C_(4)H_(10)binary mixture in graphite nanopores was investigated by Grand Ca-nonical Monte Carlo(GCMC)molecular simulation.The method for determining the dew-point pressure and bubble-point pressure in the nanopores was explored.The condensation phenomenon was observed owing to the difference in the adsorption selectivities of the hydrocarbon molecules on the nanopore surfaces,and hence the dew-point pressure(and bubble-point pressure)of hydrocarbon mixtures in the nanopores significantly shifted.The GCMC simulations reproduced both the higher and lower bubble-point pressures in nanopores in previous studies.This work highlights the crucial role of the selec-tivity in the phase behavior of hydrocarbons in nanopores.