Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the compo...Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.展开更多
The diffusion of new energy vehicles(NEVs),such as battery electric vehicles(BEVs)and fuel cell vehicles(FCVs),is critical to the transportation sector's deep decarbonization.The cost of energy chains is an import...The diffusion of new energy vehicles(NEVs),such as battery electric vehicles(BEVs)and fuel cell vehicles(FCVs),is critical to the transportation sector's deep decarbonization.The cost of energy chains is an important factor in the diffusion of NEVs.Although researchers have addressed the technological learning effect of NEVs and the life cycle emissions associated with the diffusion of NEVs,little work has been conducted to analyze the life cycle costs of different energy chains associated with different NEVs in consideration of technological learning potential.Thus,relevant information on investment remains insufficient to promote the deployment of NEVs.This study proposes a systematic framework that includes various(competing or coordinated)energy chains of NEVs formed with different technologies of power generation and transmission,hydrogen production and transportation,power-to-liquid fuel,and fuel transportation.The levelized costs of three typical carbon-neutral energy chains are investigated using the life cycle cost model and considering the technological learning effect.Results show that the current well-to-pump levelized costs of the energy chains in China for BEVs,FCVs,and internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)are approximately 3.60,4.31,and 2.21 yuan/GJ,respectively,and the well-to-wheel levelized costs are 4.50,6.15,and 7.51 yuan/GJ,respectively.These costs primarily include raw material costs and they vary greatly for BEVs and FCVs from resource and consumer costs.In consideration of the technological learning effect,the energy chains'well-to-wheel levelized costs are expected todecrease by 24.82%for BEVs,27.12%for FCVs,and 19.25%for ICEVs by 2060.This work also summarizes policy recommendations on developing energy chains to promote the diffusion of NEVs in China.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 71961137012,71874055)National Science Centre,Poland(2018/30/Q/HS4/00764)research support by the Energy,Climate and Environment Program of International Institute for Applied System Analysis(IIASA)within the Young Scientists Summer Program(YSSP).
文摘Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.72131007,7214006,and 72074077)Open access funding provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA).
文摘The diffusion of new energy vehicles(NEVs),such as battery electric vehicles(BEVs)and fuel cell vehicles(FCVs),is critical to the transportation sector's deep decarbonization.The cost of energy chains is an important factor in the diffusion of NEVs.Although researchers have addressed the technological learning effect of NEVs and the life cycle emissions associated with the diffusion of NEVs,little work has been conducted to analyze the life cycle costs of different energy chains associated with different NEVs in consideration of technological learning potential.Thus,relevant information on investment remains insufficient to promote the deployment of NEVs.This study proposes a systematic framework that includes various(competing or coordinated)energy chains of NEVs formed with different technologies of power generation and transmission,hydrogen production and transportation,power-to-liquid fuel,and fuel transportation.The levelized costs of three typical carbon-neutral energy chains are investigated using the life cycle cost model and considering the technological learning effect.Results show that the current well-to-pump levelized costs of the energy chains in China for BEVs,FCVs,and internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)are approximately 3.60,4.31,and 2.21 yuan/GJ,respectively,and the well-to-wheel levelized costs are 4.50,6.15,and 7.51 yuan/GJ,respectively.These costs primarily include raw material costs and they vary greatly for BEVs and FCVs from resource and consumer costs.In consideration of the technological learning effect,the energy chains'well-to-wheel levelized costs are expected todecrease by 24.82%for BEVs,27.12%for FCVs,and 19.25%for ICEVs by 2060.This work also summarizes policy recommendations on developing energy chains to promote the diffusion of NEVs in China.