Predictive value of symptoms and demographics in diagnosing malignancy or peptic stricture

AIM:To determine which features of history and demographics predict a diagnosis of malignancy or peptic stricture in patients presenting with dysphagia.METHODS:A prospective case-control study of 2000 consecutive referrals(1031 female,age range:17-103 years) to a rapid access service for dysphagia,based in a teaching hospital within the United Kingdom,over 7 years.The service consists of a nurse-led telephone triage followed by investigation(barium swallow or gastroscopy),if appropriate,within 2 wk.Logistic regression analysis of demographic and clinical variables was performed.This includes age,sex,duration of dysphagia,whether to liquids or solids,and whether there are associated features(reflux,odynophagia,weight loss,regurgitation).We determined odds ratio(OR) for these variables for the diagnoses of malignancy and peptic stricture.We determined the value of the Edinburgh Dysphagia Score(EDS) in predicting cancer in our cohort.Multivariate logistic regression was performed and P < 0.05 considered significant.The local ethics committee confirmed ethics approval was not required(audit).RESULTS:The commonest diagnosis is gastro-esophageal reflux disease(41.3%).Malignancy(11.0%) and peptic stricture(10.0%) were also relatively common.Malignancies were diagnosed by histology(97%) or on radiological criteria,either sequential barium swallows showing progression of disease or unequivocal evidence of malignancy on computed tomography.The majority of malignancies were esophago-gastric in origin but ear,nose and throat tumors,pancreatic cancer and extrinsic compression from lung or mediastinal metastatic cancer were also found.Malignancy was statistically more frequent in older patients(aged >73 years,OR 1.1-3.3,age < 60 years 6.5%,60-73 years 11.2%,> 73 years 11.8%,P < 0.05),males(OR 2.2-4.8,males 14.5%,females 5.6%,P < 0.0005),short duration of dysphagia(≤ 8 wk,OR 4.5-20.7,16.6%,8-26 wk 14.5%,> 26 wk 2.5%,P < 0.0005),progressive symptoms(OR 1.3-2.6:progressive 14.8%,intermittent 9.3%,P < 0.001),with weight loss of ≥ 2 kg(OR 2.5-5.1,weight loss 22.1%,without weight loss 6.4%,P < 0.0005) and without reflux(OR 1.2-2.5,reflux 7.2%,no reflux 15.5%,P < 0.0005).The likelihood of malignancy was greater in those who described true dysphagia(food or drink sticking within 5 s of swallowing than those who did not(15.1%vs 5.2% respectively,P < 0.001).The sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the EDS were 98.4%,9.3%,11.8% and 98.0% respectively.Three patients with an EDS of 3(high risk EDS ≥ 3.5) had malignancy.Unlike the original validation cohort,there was no difference in likelihood of malignancy based on level of dysphagia(pharyngeal level dysphagia 11.9% vs mid sternal or lower sternal dysphagia 12.4%).Peptic stricture was statistically more frequent in those with longer duration of symptoms(> 6 mo,OR 1.2-2.9,≤ 8 wk 9.8%,8-26 wk 10.6%,> 26 wk 15.7%,P < 0.05) and over 60 s(OR 1.2-3.0,age < 60 years 6.2%,60-73 years 10.2%,> 73 years 10.6%,P < 0.05).CONCLUSION:Malignancy and peptic stricture are frequent findings in those referred with dysphagia.The predictive value for associated features could help determine need for fast track investigation whilst reducing service pressures.

Hepatitis E virus: Western Cape, South Africa

AIM To conduct a prospective assessment of anti-hepatitis E virus(HEV) Ig G seroprevalence in the Western Cape Province of South Africa in conjunction with evaluating risk factors for exposure.METHODS Consenting participants attending clinics and wards of Groote Schuur, Red Cross Children's Hospital and their affiliated teaching hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa, were sampled. Healthy adults attending blood donor clinics were also recruited. Patients with known liver disease were excluded and all major ethnic/race groups were included to broadly represent local demographics. Relevant demographic data was captured at the time of sampling using an interviewer-administered confidential questionnaire. Human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) status was self-disclosed. HEV Ig G testing was performed using the Wantai? assay.RESULTS HEV is endemic in the region with a seroprevalence of 27.9%(n = 324/1161) 95%CI: 25.3%-30.5%(21.9% when age-adjusted) with no significant differences between ethnic groups or HIV status. Seroprevalence in children is low but rapidly increases in early adulthood. With univariate analysis, age ≥ 30 years old, pork and bacon/ham consumption suggested risk. In the multivariate analysis, the highest risk factor for HEV Ig G seropositivity(OR = 7.679, 95%CI: 5.38-10.96, P < 0.001) was being 30 years or older followed by pork consumption(OR = 2.052, 95%CI: 1.39-3.03, P < 0.001). A recent clinical case demonstrates that HEV genotype 3 may be currently circulating in the Western Cape.CONCLUSION Hepatitis E seroprevalence was considerably higher than previously thought suggesting that hepatitis E warrants consideration in any patient presenting with an unexplained hepatitis in the Western Cape, irrespective of travel history, age or ethnicity.

Can patients determine the level of their dysphagia?

AIM To determine if patients can localise dysphagia level determined endoscopically or radiologically and association of gender, age, level and pathology.METHODS Retrospective review of consecutive patients presenting to dysphagia hotline between March 2004 and March 2015 was carried out. Demographics, clinical history and investigation findings were recorded including patient perception of obstruction level (pharyngeal, mid sternal or low sternal) was documented and the actual level of obstruction found on endoscopic or radiological examination (if any) was noted. All patients with evidence of obstruction including oesophagealcarcinoma, peptic stricture, Schatzki ring, oesophageal pouch and cricopharyngeal hypertrophy were included in the study who had given a perceived level of dysphagia. The upper GI endoscopy reports (barium study where upper GI endoscopy was not performed) were reviewed to confirm the distance of obstructing lesion from central incisors. A previously described anatomical classification of oesophagus was used to define the level of obstruction to be upper, middle or lower oesophagus and this was compared with patient perceived level.RESULTS Three thousand six hundred and sixty-eight patients were included, 42.0% of who were female, mean age 70.7 ± 12.8 years old. Of those with obstructing lesions, 726 gave a perceived level of dysphagia: 37.2% had oesophageal cancer, 36.0% peptic stricture, 13.1% pharyngeal pouches, 10.3% Schatzki rings and 3.3% achalasia. Twenty-seven point five percent of patients reported pharyngeal level (upper) dysphagia, 36.9% mid sternal dysphagia and 25.9% lower sternal dysphagia (9.5% reported multiple levels). The level of obstructing lesion seen on diagnostic testing was upper (17.2%), mid (19.4%) or lower (62.9%) or combined (0.3%). When patients localised their level of dysphagia to a single level, the kappa statistic was 0.245 (P < 0.001), indicating fair agreement. 48% of patients reporting a single level of dysphagia were accurate in localising the obstructing pathology. With respect to pathology, patients with pharyngeal pouches were most accurate localising their level of dysphagia(P < 0.001). With respect to level of dysphagia, those with pharyngeal level lesions were best able to identify the level of dysphagia accurately (P < 0.001). No association (P > 0.05) was found between gender, patient age or clinical symptoms with their ability to detect the level of dysphagia.CONCLUSION Patient perceived level of dysphagia is unreliable in determining actual level of obstructing pathology and should not be used to tailor investigations.