It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This on...It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This one is induced by a population of men in a reproductive age. Also, some parameters of the model were estimated for an average temperature of 23℃ and by using the adjusted functions from references [1] [2]. All system simulations were done with the Maple software and parameters values obtained from several sources (estimated, hypothetic, and form literature). It has been found that the application of contraceptive measures impacts the population of sexually active women. As result, the exposure to congenital abnormalities increases, particularly, microcephaly.展开更多
It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused b...It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.展开更多
文摘It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This one is induced by a population of men in a reproductive age. Also, some parameters of the model were estimated for an average temperature of 23℃ and by using the adjusted functions from references [1] [2]. All system simulations were done with the Maple software and parameters values obtained from several sources (estimated, hypothetic, and form literature). It has been found that the application of contraceptive measures impacts the population of sexually active women. As result, the exposure to congenital abnormalities increases, particularly, microcephaly.
文摘It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.
