The structural organization of initially random errors evolving in abarotropic tangent linear model, with time-dependent basic states taken from analyses, is examinedfor cases of block development, maturation and deca...The structural organization of initially random errors evolving in abarotropic tangent linear model, with time-dependent basic states taken from analyses, is examinedfor cases of block development, maturation and decay in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere duringApril, November, and December 1989. The statistics of 100 evolved errors are studied for six-dayperiods and compared with the growth and structures of fast growing normal modes and finite-timenormal modes (FTNMs). The amplification factors of most initially random errors are slightly lessthan those of the fastest growing FTNM for the same time interval. During their evolution, thestandard deviations of the error fields become concentrated in the regions of rapid dynamicaldevelopment, particularly associated with developing and decaying blocks. We have calculatedprobability distributions and the mean and standard deviations of pattern correlations between eachof the 100 evolved error fields and the five fastest growing FTNMs for the same time interval. Themean of the largest pattern correlation, taken over the five fastest growing FTNMs, increases withincreasing time interval to a value close to 0.6 or larger after six days. FTNM 1 generally, but notalways, gives the largest mean pattern correlation with error fields. Corresponding patterncorrelations with the fast growing normal modes of the instantaneous basic state flow aresignificant' but lower than with FTNMs. Mean pattern correlations with fast growing FTNMs increasefurther when the time interval is increased beyond six days.展开更多
文摘The structural organization of initially random errors evolving in abarotropic tangent linear model, with time-dependent basic states taken from analyses, is examinedfor cases of block development, maturation and decay in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere duringApril, November, and December 1989. The statistics of 100 evolved errors are studied for six-dayperiods and compared with the growth and structures of fast growing normal modes and finite-timenormal modes (FTNMs). The amplification factors of most initially random errors are slightly lessthan those of the fastest growing FTNM for the same time interval. During their evolution, thestandard deviations of the error fields become concentrated in the regions of rapid dynamicaldevelopment, particularly associated with developing and decaying blocks. We have calculatedprobability distributions and the mean and standard deviations of pattern correlations between eachof the 100 evolved error fields and the five fastest growing FTNMs for the same time interval. Themean of the largest pattern correlation, taken over the five fastest growing FTNMs, increases withincreasing time interval to a value close to 0.6 or larger after six days. FTNM 1 generally, but notalways, gives the largest mean pattern correlation with error fields. Corresponding patterncorrelations with the fast growing normal modes of the instantaneous basic state flow aresignificant' but lower than with FTNMs. Mean pattern correlations with fast growing FTNMs increasefurther when the time interval is increased beyond six days.
