Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure:Methods,benefits,and research needs

In the last decade,the detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather and climate events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body of literature.This paper overviews the methods for extreme event attribution(EEA)and discusses the new insights that EEA provides for infrastructure adaptation.We found that EEA can inform stakeholders about current climate risk,support vulnerability-based and hazard-based adaptations,assist in the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies,and enhance justice and equity in the allocation of adaptation resources.As engineering practice shifts from a retrospective approach to a proactive,forward-looking risk management strategy,EEA can be used together with climate projections to enhance the comprehensiveness of decision making,including planning and preparing for un-precedented extreme events.Additionally,attribution assessment can be more useful for adaptation planning when the exposure and vulnerability of communities to past events are analyzed,and future changes in the probability of extreme events are evaluated.Given large uncertainties inherent in event attribution and climate projections,future research should examine the sensitivity of engineering design to climate model uncertainties,and adapt engineering practice,including building codes,to uncertain future conditions.While this study focuses on adaptation planning,EEA can also be a useful tool for informing and enhancing decisions related to climate mitigation.

Projections of corrosion and deterioration of infrastructure in United States coasts under a changing climate

Climate change can accelerate infrastructure deterioration in coastal areas because increased temperature and humidity can promote steel corrosion.This study(1)projects corrosion rate changes for reinforced concrete and steel structures in 223 coastal counties,(2)assesses the impact of corrosion rate changes on the useful life of structures,and(3)evaluates direct economic losses due to shortened useful life of highway bridges over the period 2000-2100.The results show that the useful life of concrete structures may decrease by 1.7-2.7%under the representative concentration pathway(RCP)8.5 and decrease by 0.7-1.1%under RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century.The useful life of steel structures may decrease by 7.9-15.9%under RCP 8.5 and 3.3-6.7%under RCP 4.5.Concrete bridges may suffer an average loss of$6.5-11.7/m 2 under RCP 8.5 and$3.3-16.5/m 2 under RCP 4.5 due to shortened useful life.Steel bridges may suffer an average loss of$73.4-111.3/m 2 under RCP 8.5 and$46.9-81.2/m 2 under RCP 4.5.In both climate scenarios,10%of counties may have negative losses and 10%of counties may have losses greater than$20 million due to corrosion rate changes for concrete and steel bridges.The results reveal the spatial difference of climate change impacts on infrastructural deterioration and suggest the importance of developing regional specific adaptation strategies.