Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of deter- mining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES （Crop Environment Resource Synthesis） and APSIM （Agricultural Production Systems Simulator）, were used to simulate the yield of wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） under well irrigated （CFG） and rain-fed （YY） conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain （NCP）. The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide （COa） concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCR The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCR There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water （CFG and YY） conditions. While a temperature increase of 2℃ was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1℃ decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rain- fed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈ 3.5% per 60 ppm （parts per million） increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to560ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈ 7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain of China （HHHP） are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator （APSIM）-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity （Gr） of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d·10yr^-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering （TT_floral_initiation） increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Altematively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity （TT_start grain_fill） increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades （1981- 2009） prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d·10yr^-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time （TT） of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg·yr^-1. However, thermal time shift （TTS） increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 Received September 16, 2015; accepted January 24, 2016 kg·yr^-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.